Like I talk about in every single piece of content I release - the Anchored VWAPs on the 4H timeframe tell us literally everything we need to know about the momentum for Bitcoin moving forward. Last weekend price broke BELOW but closed each candle back ABOVE $65.9K (middle band of the Elder VWAP). Initially that’s a very good sign but we need to remember the broader context that we are still in a Bear Market until proven otherwise and every time we interact with that middle band puts more pressure toward the LOWER band.

Price is now BELOW the 4H SMA again after finally RECLAIMING it for a short time. It does seem to be flattening/sloping upward so there is possibility of an uptrend in the short term. And likely speaking that would occur between now and April 15th-20th historically speaking. Last year we had a drop into that week and this year I think it’s more likely that we see the opposite. Pay close attention to $67.6K and $70.3K in terms of Fibonacci Pivots and until we get CONFIRMATION of the AVWAPs at $65.9K and $69K for trend momentum.

This range that we’re stuck in right now is getting tighter and tighter and realistically speaking we have until late April for it break fully to one side or the other. And it may not be obvious which way it’s going to go. Me personally, I still believe we are in the 4 year cycle and it’s business as usual. This means we would expect to see another FAILURE of the Weekly SMA very soon and that will result in further downside pressure.

The Downtrend AVWAP drawn from the $126K all time high is still aggressively sloping downward even if the middle band of the Elder VWAP is mostly flat at the moment. This tells us we will eventually see them cross and momentum will favor that as RESISTANCE not SUPPORT. I’m seeing they’re trying to formalzie the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve again but this is likely just another Buy the Rumor, Sell the News signal at best.

The fact of the matter is the longer the price spends BELOW the previous all time highs of $69K and $73.8K, the more it’s going to want to RETEST LOWER levels to see where we can actually from SUPPORT levels cleanly.

We have seen a significant FAILURE BELOW the Daily SMA last week that may invalidate some of the momentum we had going. But more likely it just guarantees that whenever we RETEST the Weekly SMA it will be LOWER than we originally thought a few weeks ago. The Daily Bollinger Bands are continuing to expand and the downside looks like it is opening up A LOT. While price is currently sitting right at the uptrend line from the $59.9K LOWS it will not take very much for it to break that and continue going LOWER.

Price is also struggling to stay ABOVE the Downtrend line from the first HIGHS set after that $59.9K BOTTOM (the red dotted line). This is yet another indication that the momentum wants to push the price LOWER not HIGHER. With the 4H Bollinger Bands tightening we should see a serious snap very soon and if March closes BEARISH - that may actually be what we need to see STRENGTH to the upside temporarily into the 2nd/3rd week of April as I said.

Everything until April 20th is pretty much just noise and chop to be honest. We won’t have enough CONFIRMATION of trend between now and then to be fully clear on momentum unless an insane amount of liquidity enters the market and as far as I’m aware that still is not going to happen until early 2027.

If the price is going to have any chance of HIGHER LOWS then it will need to break back ABOVE the Daily SMA sooner than later. It’s currently sitting at $70K and sloping downward and that’s not really helping our case for this RECOVERY being that high. I’ll go into more detail about that on YouTube but essentially the highest we can go keeps getting lower and lower over time according to what the chart is telling us.

This kind of unpredictability can be a blessing or a curse for markets and right now it’s not being clear about which one it is. IF we were to see a major break of the 4 year cycle then it would be sometime between April and July that we see that take place. So as usual we just need to be patient and be prepared to allocate appropriately - whether that’s adding more Spot or adding more leverage you have to decide yourself.

The Weekly timeframe is not inspiring BULLISH faith right now at all. We are much closer to $64K than we are to $76.2K and while it’s not impossible for that to change quickly - it does not mean that move will be sustained. As I’ve said in several YouTube videos, the more the Weekly SMA gets pulled LOWER the more likely it forms as RESISTANCE whenever we interact with it and currently it’s sitting at $79.2K which is significantly LOWER than last week. That trend does not look like it’s about to change so by the time we interact with it it will likely be BELOW the $76.2K pivot point - meaning RESISTANCE is likely.

The middle band of the Downtrend AVWAP has also dropped on the Weekly timeframe down to $83.8K, so while originally I believed the highest we could see now is $86K, I think that’s less and less likely as time goes by. It is very likely the $97.9K peak in January is the highest price we will see all of 2026. The reality is we have way more signs of downside pressure than we do for bullish momentum and that likely won’t change for several months to come.

Historically speaking, this is VERY COMMON this time of the cycle. I talk about this in every single YouTube video but price trend looks almost identical to 2014, 2018 and 2022 - so I do not understand where people get off saying the 4 year cycle is dead. Can they not read? I don’t get it. Seasonally speaking, it’s very normal for the price to continue RETESTING and FAILING BELOW the Weekly SMA during this time period and that’s not even factoring in the Monthly SMA which we simply won’t touch.

Like I said earlier, this range will break fully by April 20th and we’ll have our answer then whether it’s much LOWER still or if we get one more impulse HIGHER. But reality is there’s no magic liquidity coming to save Bitcoin while gas prices are rising and global uncertainty continues. 24/7 asset classes are the most likely asset to sell off during uncertainty and that’s a feature not a bug for Bitcoin. Because it goes both ways and when we finally do RECOVER it will be very violently toward the upside.

A red candle for March would mean 6 consecutive BEARISH closes for Bitcoin and that’s statistically possible though not very common - and only during Bear Markets. So we would expect IF we get a flat or negative close that price will want to rise HIGHER as quickly as possible to make up for that momentum. However, even when it does, that’s no guarantee that the momentum will be sustained and it’s much more likely we get one BULLISH month for April and then back to chop until one more LOWER HIGH in July.

At the moment March is simply flat, just barely NEGATIVE compared to February but that’s hardly an accomplishment. Consistent chop and eventual breaks to the downside are what’s most likely on the menu moving forward. That does not mean Bitcoin is dead or that it’s worthless - it just means that it’s behaving in a very predictable way and that’s good news not bad news.

I am not bothered by this chop, because it gives me more time to get better at trading Perpetual contracts as well as to save more money for buying Spot at the LOWS. Which in my opinion could still very well be BELOW $44K. We also haven’t seen any major bankruptcies in the industry yet and that will negatively affect the price quite a bit when we do. It’s unclear if that will be the Bitcoin Treasury companies but I don’t think the major players are going out of business and they are likely the best options to add exposure to once we actually have the lows formed.

I’m thinking specifically, COIN, HOOD and MSTR for that - I wouldn’t really touch most of the other ones personally because their narratives are less defined. And this is really me thinking way too far ahead because they all have a lot more bleeding to do if Bitcoin keeps heading to $44K.

Your best defense against being caught off guard is to continue educating yourself about the charts and you can always ask me questions directly by responding to this email if you’d like.