On Sunday evening we RECLAIMED the bottom band of the Downtrend AVWAP and seem poised to continue HIGHER toward key psychological levels. In terms of the “physics” of the tool, this would lead the price toward the middle band at $83.9K - however it is likely to face RESISTANCE at $73.8K. With the Weekly close $1 BELOW $69K we can assume that level is safe for now (barring impending RETRACEMENT). With $69K being the 2nd 2021 ATH, this price serves as a key psychological barrier we need to cross for the market to achieve CERTAINTY about momentum. Which is why it will later FAIL here.

The Fibonacci pivots change too frequently on the 4H to be practical for a Weekly Newsletter but last week primarily oscillated between $65K and $70K and we would expect price to likewise trend between $69K and about $74K. IF price can RECLAIM $74K ($73.8K 2024 ATH) comfortably then we may yet see that rise toward $83.9K but a standard trendline drawn from the $126.2K ATH in October to now shows that we will face SIGNIFICANT RESISTANCE at around that level in just a few days time. This is something you cannot ignore for long.

For some reason this moment on the charts reminds me of Dagobah when Master Yoda tells Luke not to bring his weapons with him into the cave. Luke asks what’s in there and Master Yoda replies, “Only what you take with you.” If we ASSUME that previous ATH levels will magically save us and form as SUPPORT now - that is the most likely cause of it later FAILING and forming as RESISTANCE. By holding firm to a narrative that is not based on the reality of the PRESENT moment - we will be met with our worst fears on the chart instead of accepting them as true reality.

Price being ABOVE the bottom band Downtrend AVWAP is very telling and assuming that momentum carries past $73.8K (which is still just an assumption at the end of the day) we still have practically ZERO volume between $71K and $86K. That means there are no emotionally invested human beings on the other end of that buy/sell button that have STRONG feelings one way or the other for the price in the exact range.

And if we can’t get sincere momentum at those levels, then as we rise into them - anyone with a higher cost basis will be forced to either sell off their bags for slighly less loss than in February or start to buy more. With the cost of goods and gasoline rising, it is unlikely that the average investor will decide to top up their failing Bitcoin position rather than selling. The conviction of people you’ll never meet decides whether the price can continue through those old ATHs or drop back BELOW $60K.

What is a bit less clear, is how the most recent RECLAIM of the Daily SMA will play out giving the upper Bollinger Band sloping sharply down toward the price with only minor compression on the bottom band. An interaction with the top band would cause undue short pressure at EXACTLY the levels we need to see form as SUPPORT instead of RESISTANCE. Another FAILURE at $74K would not be accepted willingly and would likely tank price back to $64K.

We may have to accept that the LOWER HIGH was actually set in March this time around instead of April - even if we have not seen the RETEST/FAILURE of the Weekly SMA. With so much UNCERTAINTY within the global markets there’s really no reason to assume Bitcoin is magically going to outperform. We have to accept the liquidity we are given - not the liquidity we HOPE for.

If by some miracle price is able to form SUPPORT at $74K then it very well may continue trending toward $84K but the momentum on the chart does not favor that. Anyone still saying the 4 year cycle is dead isn’t paying attention.

Price has spent considerably more time this year BELOW the Daily SMA than ABOVE it. I do not anticipate that is going to change any time soon. What history tells us is we spend most of this part of Bear Markets BELOW both the Weekly and Monthly SMAs, meaning the lower timeframes are hardly even relevant and function more like the news. What we want to focus on are the key levels that actually show us the forest from the trees. It doesn’t matter what it does locally, it matters what direction the momentum is carrying the price more generally.

And until proven otherwise - that momentum is to the downside. As I’ve said in many Newsletters and countless YouTube videos, any HIGHS set in April/May or June/July will be LOWER HIGHS with no real credibility to form new SUPPORT levels - creating new CEILINGS not new FLOORS. If that trend changes then it will be fairly obvious on the charts but until then I have to asssume that momentum toward $64K will inevitably result in the price wanting CONFIRMATION of lower levels like $44K.

Last week the Bulls fought HARD for that candle to close as close to $69K as possible - that was a HUGE victory that left most people out of the action by waiting all the way until the last minute. Prior to that it was very unclear as to the momentum and even after a close there I would hesitate to say we’re out of the hot water just yet. Like I’ve been talking about since February, any close BELOW $70.3K puts undue pressure to the DOWNSIDE because that’s the 50% mark of the $64K to $76.2K range we’ve been caught in since the $59.9K DROP.

By April 23rd or so we should see the trendlines from $59.9K AND $126.2K CONVERGE and that will tell us more about momentum than myself or any other content creator could ever know. And while the Weekly SMA DID drop LOWER as I expected - there is still some time to RECLAIM it ABOVE $76.2K.

Bitcoin always tells the same story every Bear Market. It says farewell to the Monthly SMA and does not return for 8-12 months but it plays hard to get with the Weekly SMA. It flirts with it a few times, maybe even let’s it stay ABOVE for a while - and then it rips the price under over and over. There is no reason for me to assume that is going to be different this time around. I’ll talk about it more on YouTube but the Fibonacci Pivot and Weekly SMA interaction forming looks almost IDENTICAL to 2022.

I do not argue with the charts - I just read them. By the time we see an interaction with the Weekly SMA - whether that’s ABOVE or BELOW $76.2K, one or both of them will form as significant RESISTANCE. The Clarity Act is stalling and global uncertainty reduces the access to liquidity that Bitcoin relies on to show STRENGTH during these times. In 2022 it was the same, with the war in Ukraine causing similar instability in the price before Crypto companies started going bankrupt and the trend became more clear than it had been. We will know within a few weeks whether we’re dealing with the same business as usual or if something has fundamentally changed for the industry after the ETF approvals.

Bitcoin currently looks like that door frame you mark up with crayons for your first child as they grow each birthday - and the younger sibling was just born and now has their own crayon marks. Any time the price climbs back to a key level it is doing so much later than it was originally hit - but Bitcoin has no sibling so it’s just growing and shrinking all on its own. The Monthly timeframe is always the same during this time of the cycle and it eithers recovers SLIGHTLY quicker or it lingers for several more months. The only difference that creates is whether it STAYS ABOVE it after or needs to break it once more.

Just like everything I’ve said, we will simply REACT to how the price behaves around that key level (currently $90.4K) and allow that to inform our decisions. I am inclined to believe that the $97.9K LOWER HIGH set in January IS the HIGHEST that Bitcoin will be for all of 2026 and it just depends how much the powers that be want people to be fearful and uncertain for whether or not we RECLAIM and FAIL that level between now and 2027 or whether we comfortably leave it behind for a while with another break back BELOW $64K.

Anyone who buys in this range will historically speaking have to wait 2 years for their position to be in “guaranteed profits”. With a slight period of time during the following Bear Market where it may dip BELOW again. This is not necessarily a bad thing - it is just a math and timing thing. If you bought at the absolute top then that period of time is about 5 years. If you wait until later this year then you will likely only experience a few months at most in drawdown and then you will forever be in profit. I’m not concerned about any of the Bitcoin I own purchased BELOW $30K.

You’re not holding it because of what the price is today or tomorrow - you are holding it because it will retain its economic energy across time and space better than anything except the MOST productive companies. But this an asset that requires no army of employees or board meetings, only willing participants to keep mining and transacting with one another. It’s not meant to be EASY during a Bear Market - but the market is always better off for having gone through a complete season again.

It doesn’t matter how much Bitcoin you buy - it matters how much of it you can hold onto when everyone else is saying to DUMP it all.