As I’ve talked about in many past Newsletters and YouTube videos - as long as Bitcoin is ABOVE the bottom band of the Downtrend AVWAP set from $126K - price will continue TOWARD $83.6K. That does not mean it will get there. But I do believe pressure will build toward a RETEST of at least $80K depending on the amount of volume that enters between now and about April 24th. At that time we’ll see a major convergence between the $126K Downtrend and the most recent $59.9K Uptrend that needs to resolve to one side or the other.

So the 4H in the meantime is primarily just for taking scalps and in my opinion still one of the cleaner timeframes for taking entries in general. As I mention at the end of every YouTube video - I am trading the NanoBTC Perpetual Futures Contracts on Coinbase and from what I’ve seen the strategy favors the 4H. In terms of price targets on this timeframe - we mostly want to pay attention to the psychological levels still (that being $69K and $73.8K). But $73.1K and $74.5K are showing up as HIGHER Fibonacci Pivots and a RETEST of the Weekly close at $70.7K would tell us what we need to know about local trend.

I believe in the analysis I have been repeating for several weeks now. I expect to see a HIGHER LOW form in both April and likely July as well. Which means for the moment I am BULLISH within the REALITY that the chart shows me. Which as I mentioned is I don’t believe price will go higher than about $84K in this run - IF it can even get that high. $80K is more likely to me and that’s predicated upon a STRONG REACTION to both the $76.2K fib pivot AND wherever we actually RETEST Weekly SMA.

So on the 4H timeframe I’m mostly just focused on adding or removing exposure to my Perpetuals position and waiting to see about adding more spot. There is some evidence that the actual bottom may already be in at $59.9K but I think it’s too early to call that definitively. I think we would have the necessary data to prove or disprove that by the end of July - which is obviously a lot of 4H candles between now and then.

I haven’t seen anything that makes me believe the 4 year cycle is over. The Clarity Act getting pushed through with no yield on stablecoins can hardly be called a victory for the industry. It’s like they just permanently installed speed bumps that will wreck the bottom of our Bitcoin Bugattis. That means I still believe we will see more of a downtrend later in the year - but July will confirm or deny that for me. For now just pay attention to $73.8K and then the anchored volume profile is so thin between there and $84K that there just aren’t enough people at those cost bases to actually defend those price levels with strong emotions.

The Daily SMA has been pretty brutal for Bitcoin the past couple months but at the moment the price is still comfortably ABOVE it - sitting at $69.3K. That means as long as price keeps trending ABOVE there - eventually even a RETEST of the Daily SMA would still likely result in SUPPORT formed at $69K. This would actually be a great sign for the short term - though again I fully expect the market to shift violently by April 24th and I don’t care which news story it is that precipitates that. It’s the chart that’s telling me - not the news.

Just like on the 4H timeframe - as long as price is ABOVE the bottom band of the Downtrend AVWAP (currently at $68.4K) then upside momentum is steady. As I’m writing this price is on its way back to RETEST $73.8K and while it may form as SUPPORT now - it’s still very likely we’re going to rip right back through it as RESISTANCE on the other end of that trendline flip late April. The only thing that could change that is a quick end to this global uncertainty (unlikely) and immediate access to tremendous volume from bank issued stablecoins (to my knowledge this won’t happen until closer to January 2027).

So for the short term we just want to see consecutive Daily closes ABOVE $69K and increasingly ABOVE $73.8K if we are able to form SUPPORT there. But if we break BELOW the Daily SMA then we could just as easily expect a significant and violent push down to $64K and BELOW - but again I’m expecting the possibility of that just under 2 weeks from now and expect upside momentum between now and next week’s Newsletter at least.

I think it’s very natural to pay attention to the news when it comes to an asset like Crypto - but after studying the chart for as many years as I have, the news really doesn’t tell me much about the price. It can dictate short term momentum but inevitably it will be drawn toward specific prices that basic technical analysis would allow you to predict yourself. So why rely on the news to tell you where to add or subtract your positions rather than just working to find ways to navigate the volatility that the news will provide around those key levels you charted already.

This has made it a lot easier for me to not feel stressed out during major downturns for the price because I’m just focused on working with it not against it. If you rely on the news to tell you when it’s safe to buy Bitcoin - you’ll be buying it right before major dumps occur. If you just set up steady DCA plans with occassional lump sum additions during well charted bottoms - then you finally understand how to play the game.

I’ve been talking about mostly the same exact trend for the Weekly timeframe since February. IF price is ABOVE $70.3K then we have pressure UP to $76.2K. IF price is BELOW $70.3K then we have pressure DOWN to $64K. Very simple. That marks about the 50% mark of that range and is also the first major candle close within the range, a very important data point for this part of the year. We have now broken ABOVE the Downtrend line from $126K which means we’re on borrowed time if that trend is going to stay ABOVE it or need to break back below shortly. Like I said we should know by later on in the month of April.

At the moment the Weekly SMA is still trending DOWN toward $76.2K and is currently at about $77.6K - considerably LOWER than it has been in Weeks. Whether this SMA starts to flatten or curve in the opposite direction will be the primary thing we need to watch for the rest of the year. Historically speaking it takes longer for the price to RECLAIM the Monthly SMA which just means that the Weekly is going to give us more useful information while we’re waiting. So it’s not much more complicated than watching the REACTION to these prices - $69K to $73.8K and $76.2K to $80K. If it goes HIGHER then it won’t be for long.

There’s always the possibility that we see a new paradigm shift that would allow the price to keep climbing back ABOVE $100K this year. But I don’t see it personally - I think it’s just as likely that the tokenization of assets like NVIDIA and APPL are going to have a short term negative impact on the amount of volume available to Bitcoin and the rest of the Crypto markets. That won’t hold forever but it will change the flow of liquidity to the most predictable and reliable assets first - which is why this Newsletter is about Bitcoin and not something way less reliable.

I expect a FAILURE of the Weekly SMA whenever we RETEST it. I don’t care if we spend 3 weeks ABOVE it - that’s fine, we have history for that. But if it starts spending a month or more ABOVE the Weekly SMA then we need to accept that we’re about to see MORE VOLATILITY not LESS VOLATILITY. Both to the upside AND the downside. However in this it is likely that the bottoms will get pulled HIGHER rather than LOWER. So we need to be prepared for the possibility price never goes down to $44K or lower and plan your accumulation strategy accordingly given that chance.

Historically speaking when we break BELOW the Monthly SMA we usually expect to stay BELOW for at least 8 to 12 months. We are currently on month 5 BELOW it and that would put July as the earliest possible RETEST but more likely closer to November. It really just depends if we’re seeing the chart behave more like 2018 or 2022 and we do have to acknowledge that Trump was President in 2018 and therefore it’s not unreasonable to assume some of the market moves will be similar - even if the news stories have changed. That would mean MORE VOLATILITY toward the upside though in my opinion still likely a FAILURE if price were to climb higher toward $96K to $100K.

I genuinely believe that the $97.9K peak in January is the HIGHEST we are going to see the price for the rest of 2026 but we’ll know by July I think. Since we had so many red Monthly candles in a row it’s not unreasonable to assume we see a few green ones now. But overall the majority of Monthly candles should be expected to be red this year assuming 4 year cycle is still in play. The only thing potentially contradicting that is the bottom Bollinger band and Monthly SMA both still aggressively sloping HIGHER but we’ll see if it lasts.

Either you have enough exposure to Bitcoin - or you don’t. Very simple. IF price starts retracing 2022 then it will be OBVIOUS when it’s time to buy more of it but if it retraces 2018 then it will be anything but obvious. As a general rule of thumb, buying spot positions BELOW the Monthly and Weekly SMA will never serve you poorly given you have the time horizion to wait several years. Based on my understanding of the chart any cost basis where we are now would still have about a 2 year waiting period before “guaranteed profits” (that’s not financial advice just math).

So what I ask myself is - does it benefit rich people MORE or LESS for there to never be LOWER prices for Bitcoin again? I would think the answer is it benefits them LESS if the price never goes LOWER. Because they just like you and I can buy dramatically more of it at lower prices. And you would have to instead believe that all the wealthy and powerful people have bought as much as they want and are now prepared to wait - which doesn’t seem like what’s happening to me. I think we’re still waiting for the final coil to be placed before it springs and that won’t be until next year if the chart behaves the same way that is usually does.

Bitcoin is BEST when it’s BORING. If you can hold through times like these and allocate when you’re able to - life will be more simple.