On Friday of last week the price PEAKED around $78.4K before closing the week at $73.8K. I believe this run is nearing its peak, though I do believe it either happens this week or into next week. The middle bands of both the Elder and Downtrend AVWAPs are now at $80.2K and $83.5K respectively. It is my baseline assumption that we will FAIL somewhere in that range if indeed we are able to continue this momentum. $73.8K forming as SUPPORT is really important - that’s the exact March 2024 ETF/Halving Peak - so a CRITICAL level.

I mentioned in today’s YouTube video about a 4H SMA BREAK that currently has price back ABOVE $76K. The Fibonacci pivots above are $77.2K and $79K. Below there is $74.2K however I would assume that $73.8K is the more important level there and the chart seems to be CONFIRMING that so far. I genuinely believe the levels that matter here are $80K and $84K - it doesn’t have to be an exact dollar amount - pay close attention to those levels. How the price behaves around that range will tell us what is going to happen next.

That Weekly close at $73.8K tells me a lot about short term momentum. With a break of the bottom Bollinger Band there as well - it’s perfectly setting up for a Long entry the same as it has in many other weeks right around the candle close. Call it manipulation, call it suppy and demand - I don’t care because the 4H Bollinger Bands also state it very clearly. You can watch the news if you want to but I’m going to focus on the charts.

It’s much easier for me to believe a REACTION to AVWAP middle bands at $80K and $83.5K will result in DOWNSIDE pressure - than it is for me to believe price will magically be able to keep rising after that range. I’m not a politician but I would immediate the Clarity Act is taking so long primarily because it allows a series of Buy the Rumor, Sell the News spikes within an otherwise clearly BEARISH part of the cycle. 4 Year Cycle volatility is a FEATURE not a BUG for Bitcoin and I don’t expect it to disappear simply because more demand will happen once the bill passes.

I’ve been saying since January/February that I believe we see a LOWER HIGH form at the end of April and another form by end of July - as well as multiple FAILURES of the Weekly SMA and a RETEST of the Monthly SMA being a completely contrarian view relative to historical analysis. That means I expect LOWER after this peak into early May right now. If the Bill passes earlier than the July deadline, I still do not believe it solves the liquidity problems because the banks have to announce all their partnerships and formalize their promotions and materials to indocrinate customers into using the stablecoins immediately en masse day one. This is a process that will take several months and that’s a lot of opportunities for people to rug the Crypto market during a year they historically do.

The Daily SMA remains sloped UPWARD and that close at $73.8K happens to coincide with the $73.9K Daily Fib pivot - meaning it already has SUPPORT formed at a level well ABOVE the SMA itself at $72K. With price now facing some RESISTANCE at the Daily pivot level $76.6K - today’s close ABOVE or BELOW that line will give us some clues as to the momentum rest of week.

Don’t forget the Daily just acts as bridge between the higher and lower timeframes and we still expect upside momentum until a clear FAILURE of the Weekly SMA is CONFIRMED. If price is able to stay ABOVE about $74.8K the chart will regard this as BULLISH being key Daily closes back in March. Really all evidence points to the upside it’s just a matter of whether that Weekly SMA has something else to say about it - and which news narrative pulls the trigger.

We have to remember the Daily trend can shift quite violently overnight and stay that way for a while in the Bear Market years. Until that trend is broken we have to assume that’s what we will see revisited after July of this year. Obviously that will be more clear once we are deeper into the month of May. For now we wait for a rise to $80K and see how the chart wants to REACT.

Like I said on the 4H section - I kind of just care about the REACTION to $80K and $83.5K - somewhere in that range the price is going to have a strong reaction and I don’t care which news event it gets correlated to. At that time I expect the price will FALL rapidly - HOWEVER I will be very clear if that is not the case once we see it on the chart. It will look likely Daily consecutive closes ABOVE $96K and I just don’t see that for 2026.

If by some MIRACLE $76.2K is able to form and hold as SUPPORT after the price reaction to $80K-$83.5K - then we have to entertain that price can potentially make the journey from the low $80Ks back to $96K. At which point I would expect an even more violent FAILURE of the price. It is hard for me to believe that we will see a price HIGHER than the $97.9K peak this year in January. It would run counter to everything we’d expect to see in a Bear Market year and I don’t understand where the liquidity would come from without those stablecoins being FULLY in effect. (I ramble about how the Stablecoins affect the global economy and the United States itself in the last few YouTube videos but it literally affects when the next Bull market starts so highly worth researching yourself).

Very little is more important than the REACTION to BOTH the $76.2K Fibonacci pivot and the Weekly SMA - currently at $76.9K and dropping still. Once price is able to break ABOVE that Weekly SMA - clock is ticking before EXPANSION. A favorable reaction could result in MASSIVE UPSIDE but I don’t understand where the money would come from personally. History shows us that Weekly SMA is repeatedly FAILED each Bear Market year and within a week or two of you reading this you’ll be able to see it clearly on the chart without my help.

IF Price breaks ABOVE and then FAILS back BELOW the Weekly SMA then we would need to see $76.2K hold firm as SUPPORT and the Anchored Volume Profile does not currently speak to that being the case. That meaning - there is not volume at these levels as it stands for there to be sufficient human beings to DEFEND these price levels with strong emotions. In other words - their money is tied up at different cost bases and therefore they’re just watching. Those with money or those without caution are going to yolo into the trend and that’s typically when those people end up having to either wait for a significant time period in loss or cut their losses early and reduce positions.

The goal is always to OUTLAST these periods of chop. It doesn’t matter how much your Bitcoin is worth in US dollars - it matters how many Satoshis you hold onto when everything in the markets is telling you to fomo and hop back into the trend - just in time for another drop to hit. Functionally speaking, any buys BELOW both the Weekly and Monthly SMA end up being favorable in the long run. Based on the probabilities you would typically expect a period of at least 2 years before you’re in “guaranteed” profits from around this range of the cycle. That’s PRIOR to the stablecoin inflows though so we may have seen that trend change.

Like I talk about in my YouTube videos, I’m of the opinion this cycle is not over until all of the 2024 IBIT ETF buyers are also in loss and having to consider whether they should trim or add to their positions. Which would put the price closer to the range between $50K and around $44K. If the price does NOT go to those levels - then all of those individuals holding the ETF have no STRONG EMOTIONS already maintaining or cutting the position. Markets rely on volatility to determine value and nothing creates more volatility than UNCERTAINTY about whether or not you made the right decision on where to invest your life’s savings.

All of the nasty drops have already occured - and any more to come are theoretical and will be fairly obvious according to the Weekly SMA RETEST. Which means all April has to do is close ABOVE $68.2K to be the hero of the year. But the trend for Bear Market years is predominantly RED and we would expect to see downside pressure into May almost immediately, the same way we’ve seen dramatic shifts in trend around ends of months or weeks all year. If we were to see a Monthly SMA RETEST at $90.7K it would be the only time in history the price was able to RECOVER the Monthly SMA in such a short time period. Approximately a year before it would normally be expected to happen.

In the 2018-2019 cycle the Monthly SMA did continue to trend flat and upward instead of more sharply downward in 2022. This could be a very important trend for us to keep our eyes on as it would imply that we get more volatility to the upside than we would historically expect in this time period. I’m still not totally sold on that personally - but again we’ll know more in May and have most of the CONFIRMATION that we need by the end of July latest. We still have one more week for April after this so let’s see where it closes next.

When I think about the broader context for what I should do with my Bitcoin stack it’s either - add to it or wait longer before adding to it. Obviously waiting and the price just continuing to rip higher is not favorable - but everything historically speaks to taking caution now. We’ll know by early May whether or not this is the case. I would be very surprised if price is able to rise ABOVE $86K even if things go very well. All that really matters for this Week’s Newsletter is where does the price close in relation to the $76.2K Fibonacci Pivot and Weekly SMA @ $76.9K.

I’ll keep an eye on those throughout the week and will cover it more on YouTube. But if it’s able to close well ABOVE those levels then again pay close attention to $80K and $83.5K. I’m sure we’ll talk again before then.

Don’t underestimate this Weekly SMA RETEST - it could dramatically change our whole expectation for the year.