Price has shown RESISTANCE at $79.5K twice last Wednesday and once now on Sunday that has precipitated this downside momentum starting off the week. As I’m writing this the drop is looking even more violent toward $75.1K pivot. What remains to be seen is whether the chart is pricing in a FAILURE to break both middle bands of the AVWAPs or if we are going to RETEST them at all. It’s possible the chart just told us that $80K is too high for now and that we need to drop LOWER again before actually having the momentum for such a level. We have had plenty of instances on the chart in recent memory where it looked like it was about to keep dropping and instead continued to RISE. But the pressure is on now after April 24th for there to be another RETEST of the Uptrend from $59.9K - and CONFIRMATION of that will occur around $70K.

That means we don’t want to see price wick BELOW $75.1K if it has any real hopes of maintaining this rally toward +$80K. If $76K can form as SUPPORT then there is some hope of another attempt at $80K but now that we’ve broken back BELOW the 4H SMA again we really need to wait for a RETEST of the Daily SMA to confirm trend one way or the other. If price can show STRENGTH back ABOVE $77.3K then we have a chance at $79.5K again. But that level is going to prove as the true test of whether the BULLS or the BEARS have control of the markets - as volume jumped quite a lot when we approached it and has been fairly thin on the rise to it. Worth watching.

I have now said publicly in Newsletters and YouTube videos since February that I believe we’ll see a LOWER HIGH form right about now. My personal decision framework therefore needs to be around whether I WAIT for CONFIRMATION of another $80K RETEST or if I am sufficiently happy with my Perpetual profits to close the trade and consider a Short if this downside momentum clearly is going to continue. I am not yet convinced that we’ve lost a shot at $80K or HIGHER and will likely be waiting a few more days before I make a decision about that. But functionally speaking the chart is still providing plenty of scalp trades.

My cost basis for my Bitcoin stack is considerably lower than present prices so I don’t really need to panic about selling if we’re going to drop. And it’s mostly just a matter of being patient now to allocate new capital - because if we are about to drop then it’s possible it’s quite a bit lower and therefore better to wait. Whereas a sharp recovery here to the upside would be more obvious and not something we would miss. However that upside momentum becomes less and less likely the lower price needs to get CONFIRMATION of now. Realistically to me it’s that $76.2K Fib pivot - if price needs to retrace there and can’t hold it - then we may need to accept the downside momentum is already on its way.

Structurally speaking we don’t really want to see it lower than $75K now.

That level is currently $75.2K which is conveniently right next to that $75.1K pivot - so expect the REACTION to that range to be a very important one. It does look like it would be within the next few days depending again on how violently the chart is responding to the FAILURE at $80K. We’ve had a lot less volume in these recent daily candles than earlier in the month so enough momentum may push it to the opposite trend without much of a fight. We’ve been ABOVE the Daily SMA since early April so a FAILURE here would be CONFIRMATION of that LOWER HIGH that I’ve been talking about forever now.

There is a possibility of a STRONG response to the Daily SMA but I have to be consistent with my own analysis - I think it’s going to FAIL there. We’ll likely know within the next week at most but more likely by the middle of this week.

$73.9K is registering as an important Fib Pivot BELOW the Daily SMA and that level also corresponds heavily with the $73.8K all time high in March of 2024. Losing that level would hasten us toward the downside as the chart would likely interpret that momentum as BEARISH. The most important level that’s preventing all of that from crashing is $76.2K and it’s getting close to it now. Pay attention to how price reacts around there and that’ll clue you in.

The Daily has been a pretty clear and obvious trend for most of April so it’s only natural that we get some pushback against that. Really all that matters now is the reactions to $76.2K and possibly $75.2K - if Price is able to build SUPPORT at both levels then we have hopes for HIGHER. If it loses those levels without a fight then it’s fairly self explanatory what happens next. There’s always a possibility this is just a fake out before it goes higher but we don’t really have historical precedence for that trend. What is much more likely is price losing the Weekly SMA any day now.

It’s interesting for me psychologically because on the one hand I would like to see price have a clean RETEST of $80K and $83.5K to CONFIRM that we’re BOUNCING those middle bands of the AVWAPS - HOWEVER, by not even reaching those levels instead it acts as more than enough evidence that trend will continue downward toward the bottom band. That’s at about $68.4K right now but if we hit that any time soon then I don’t think $80K or more is really on the table at this point in the run.

Does the price close this week ABOVE or BELOW the Weekly SMA? That’s literally all you need to think about between now and Sunday afternoon. As I’m writing this price is sitting directly on top of it at about $76.5K. With the $76.2K higher timeframe Fib Pivot sitting just BELOW that we have a CRUCIAL moment for the chart to confirm either SUPPORT or RESISTANCE moving forward. Reality is the next 2 weeks could be quite volatile or just very tense. History shows us that a STRONG reaction to the Weekly SMA is warranted during Bear Market years so it wouldn’t be that strange to see a drop here.

It looks like we’ll have CONFIRMATION of that fairly soon and I wouldn’t expect price to dramatically give up the Weekly SMA and then magically RECLAIM it a few weeks later - typically it either breaks ABOVE it cleanly or the trend accepts that those price levels are currently out of reach and begins running for the next cleanest targets - which would be around $70K and $64K.

$76.2K is really important for determining which direction trend is headed. If price has a REACTION there and volume returns to hold it then excellent - we may see at least another BOUNCE to $78K before a FAILURE at $80K again. BUT if price just rips right back through $76.2K here like it’s nothing then that puts pressure toward the downside soon. Price is respecting the Daily pivot at $76.5K now but I don’t know if that’s going to hold through the rest of the day - I would imagine once the candle has closed at 5 PM PST we may see a strong push BELOW there.

History tells us to expect a LOWER HIGH both here and sometime in July. Until proven otherwise I have to assume that’s what we’re going to get. Price remaining ABOVE $76.5K all week would be CONFIRMATION of CONTINUATION for upside momentum but it’s Monday and it’s already RETESTING it pretty hard so I wouldn’t count on that outcome. All that really matters during this transition is keeping your mind clear so you can REACT to what the chart is CONFIRMING in the next few weeks.

March closed at $68.2K so it’s a pretty low bar for April to close ABOVE that. However we don’t have historical precedent for more than 2 green candles in a row for a Bear Market year - and therefore should not expect May will be naturally follow HIGHER than any close April presents us in relation to $76.2K. As I’ve said many times it’s much more likely that we form RESISTANCE here at this level even after initially breaking ABOVE it. That level is important on both the Weekly and Monthly timeframes and with the month closing on Thursday, that may actually put a lot of downside pressure on the Weekly close Sunday.

IF we’re going to see continuation to the downside then we would expect the wick of the May candle to be no HIGHER than the wick of the April candle - which at this point has shown RESISTANCE at $79.5K. It is important to note that this level is still quite a bit LOWER than the closing candles during the major drop in 2025 and therefore those levels are functioning as RESISTANCE. We may have to accept that any close for April will still result in a downside momentum start for May - losing key levels would only hasten the descent.

In order to believe that we’re going to see a RETEST of the Monthly SMA we have to believe that price can climb ABOVE $90.7K right now. Which to me does not look very likely given how much price is struggling to climb the ladder of $76K, $78K, $80K. Technically speaking a major development with the stablecoins issuance or if the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve just apes a lot of money in then yes we could see HIGHER still. But I think it’s more likely with Kevin Warsh taking over for Jerome Powell that the markets have priced in how “BULLISH” he is for Crypto and his stepping forward will basically be a Sells the News event. It’s just hard for me to believe they turn the money printer on without some type of negative news catalyst first and Bitcoin will respond to the downside.

We have no historical precedent for 3 green candles in a Bear Market year. SO that means wherever it closes this week for April - it’s probably not going higher than that in May - or possibly for the rest of the year. I personally don’t think the 4 year cycle is over - which means we have more downside momentum to come. I don’t really understand the sentiment that it’s up only forever now, that’s not even how rich people amass wealth. So keep an eye on where the price closes for April because it’s likely going to pull the price down over the weekend.

Don’t worry about where the price is now - worry about where it’s going next and whether you are able to capitalize on that trend.