As I am writing this the 4H timeframe is seeing major COMPRESSION on the Bollinger Bands and price has tagged the top band at around $63.8K (4HR Break Room Members got this LIVE) which at the moment means $64K is now acting as RESISTANCE instead of SUPPORT. If price cannot rise ABOVE $63.8K it will not be able to RECLAIM the Bottom Band of the Downtrend AVWAP which would imply further downside momentum back to the $62K and $62.5K levels price has found as SUPPORT as of the time I’m writing this.

Coming off a BEARISH Weekly close that aligns with multiple REJECTIONS on the Monthly close - there is little point in denying that evidence points more heavily toward downside pressure than to the upside. STRENGTH ABOVE $64K and $64.4K for multiple 4H candle closes would INVALIDATE this trend - but that’s not my base case nor is it how I’m currently positioned in my Perps. This week will likely chop until it has true CONFIRMATION that $64K is RESISTANCE.

I am positioned in my Short already. It has gone from being in Loss to in more Profit than I was in Loss - to now basically being flat again ($63.9K cost basis). I have added what I would like to the contracts however if I were someone looking for a Short entry - this would not be the worst time. Not financial advice, do your own research. If I am correct about all the BEARISH signals I’ve been covering on YouTube then it is reasonable to assume we start breaking down in earnest very shortly within the week.

I am paying close attention to the Bottom Band of the Downtrend AVWAP across timeframes since it was just REJECTED on both the Weekly and Monthly timeframes, usually the shorter time horizons will follow. It’s always possible momentum could build to the upside but the majority of the narratives floating around the news for Bitcoin are BEARISH right now and there’s no real reason for me to believe the true bottom is in.

We’ll know the direction of trend when we get CONFIRMATION of $64K as either SUPPORT or RESISTANCE and that could be very soon indeed.

Price has broken back BELOW the Daily SMA and now has 3 full body candle closes BELOW - even if it is currently trending back toward the SMA at $64.4K. We do have to pay attention to the GOLDEN CROSS/DEATH CROSS scenario we have going on between the Daily SMA and the Bottom Band of the Downtrend AVWAP right now. While we are initially forming a Golden Cross it does look very similar to April 2026 to me where we ended up forming the Death Cross within days of the Golden Cross forming. The only INVALIDATION of this trend would again be price RECLAIMING the Daily SMA ABOVE $64.4K.

Much like the 4H timeframe, price has initially found $62.5K to be SUPPORT which is the only reason we're even seeing this bounce back toward $64K. But just like the 4H timeframe - if price cannot get a clean break back ABOVE the Bottom Band of the Downtrend AVWAP then it will not be able to carry momentum past $64K for more than a few candle closes at most. Given the context of the higher timeframes we have to assume the shorter timeframes are simply catching up and will eventually come to the same conclusion.

Remember price can stay disconnected from the Daily SMA for a long period of time and the 2018 correlation indicates that should be very soon for Bitcoin.

I think the Daily SMA IS going to cross back BELOW the Bottom Band of the Downtrend AVWAP which is going to CONFIRM $64K as RESISTANCE. Just like the Weekly lagged the Monthly close by 2 days, likely the Daily confirmation will come a few days after the Weekly and so on for the 4H. Coldcard hacks. Russian Bitcoin sanctions. FOMC rate pause. Clarity Act delay. None of these news narratives point toward BULLISH momentum. You already know I don’t care about the news - I care about the levels - but it is important to pay attention to when they say the SAME THING.

Which is that it’s not time for Bitcoin to rise right now. The next few months are going to be very choppy and you need to be able to use both a Historical Analysis and Short Term Technicals in order to craft a proper trading plan. It’s still historically a good time to DCA but if you’re looking to trade with Leverage this is the time of year you need to be GOOD or you will miss opportunities and end up chasing the wrong ones.

While the Weekly candle close was slightly ABOVE the Monthly candle close on Friday - it was still well BELOW the $64K target we need to see as SUPPORT if the price has any hopes of returning to $66.9K or HIGHER (Subscribers are already aware I do not believe this is the case). Between last Week’s close and the Week before the chart now has CONFIRMATION of REJECTION at (1) the Point of Control, (2) the Bottom Band of the Downtrend AVWAP, and (3) the $64K Fib Pivot - as well as REJECTING a RETEST of the Weekly SMA altogether.

In my mind there is no way to interpret these signals in a POSITIVE light. They all point to the same direction - which is a RETEST of the middle of the NEW range we are now inhabiting (more on YouTube). That means price will get pulled back toward $57K for CONFIRMATION of SUPPORT and it’s only a matter of time before that descent begins based on the $64K REACTION.

In order for me to be WRONG about this Short I would need to see STRENGTH ABOVE both $64K and $64.4K but Subscribers are already aware - that target was $65.7K and $65.3K not that many days ago. If the target for INVALIDATION keeps getting LOWER what that tells us is the price has less CONFIDENCE for a move HIGHER and is just seeking CONFIRMATION of the trend LOWER before volume returns meaningfully.

According to the 2018 correlation we would expect the price to start breaking down heavily soon and I would imagine that’s going to be after a clean REJECTION of $64K and likely after Monday and Tuesday volume. It is important to pay attention to $62K and $62.5K as either could form as SUPPORT sufficient enough to force CONSOLIDATION of the price instead of a clean break to the downside - we’ll have to wait and see.

This is something I’m going to keep watching over the course of the Month because it’s not what I was expecting to see happen on the Chart. I assumed we would close July closer to $64K and by some accounts we did. According to the Chart the Monthly close was $62.8K HOWEVER the month of August shows the candle opened at $64.2K - what does this mean? I believe this indicates the GAP that the price will need to fill over the course of the month but I don’t think it’s as easy as it just filling that gap now then continuing HIGHER. As I said ABOVE, price either REJECTS $64.4K or it finds ACCEPTANCE there but it’s possible that it ends up doing both - with a lot of time between.

If we assume the 2018 correlation holds true then the price should drop the first two weeks of August before finding SUPPORT ABOVE $57K and then it will make its way back toward the $64K Fib Pivot in order to fill that gap completely. While the peak of the move may actually be in the first few days of September (more on YouTube) - the implication is clear that a REJECTION now will only further demand a RETEST later. So either way we wait for $64K now.

Subscribers are already aware that we expect to see between 3-4 Green Monthly candles in a Bear Market year - we have now printed 3 of them. In 2018 we only printed 3 total - so unless we see a MAJOR DIVERGENCE from that correlation (we have not so far) that means we’re done for the year and the rest of the Monthly candles should be RED. I’m not opposed to one more Green candle but for me August is not the most likely candidate for that to occur (I think it’s November if at all). So that gap fill is going to be the main thing we want to pay attention in August.

I suppose it does make more sense for it to fill it now - because if it fills it at the end of the month and prices closes ABOVE $62.8K then TECHNICALLY August will be a BULLISH Monthly print. This is not my base case but that’s reality based on the closing candle data we have. As I’ve now said many times (and will say many more) $64K decides what happens next for the momentum of the price and we should know soon.

If you have to spend considerably more time on other charts to get less predictable returns than trading leverage with Bitcoin - WHY are you trading those other instruments instead of learning BTC?