Right now the price has RECLAIMED the Bottom Band of the Downtrend AVWAP on the 4H timeframe. It looks like it wants to RETEST all the most important levels from last week - $63.8K, $64K, $64.2K and $64.4K respectively. It spent a long time last week CONSOLIDATING at $63K and I’m not convinced it’ll continue upward until we get multiple Daily closes ABOVE the Daily SMA (more on that below). If the 4H SMA can slope back ABOVE the Bottom Band of the Downtrend AVWAP then it will foreshadow the same trend on the Daily.

That means short term the 4H is going to look more BULLISH than the other timeframes until it is able to mount SUPPORT at the levels I mentioned above. I’m not convinced that it is BULLISH yet but that could change very quickly depending on the contents of the Wednesday White House Crypto Meeting. As I’m writing this we have tagged $64K which everyone that follows my work knows - is the most important level on the chart. An INVALIDATION here at that level would obviously force the price back LOWER but any time there’s major Federal news directly related to price we have to prepare for VOLATILITY.

I now have to consider closing my Short with less Profits than I would have received last week. Such is life. I will likely make that decision based off the Daily close today but will continue to update subscribers here via the Daily emails and of course 4H Break Room Members will know first.

You have to zoom out pretty far on the 4H timeframe to consider where we are right now a BULLISH trend rather than CONSOLIDATION - but the fact remains we are showing SUPPORT ABOVE the Lows of July fairly well. I’m sure you’ve seen many Crypto creators calling that the Bottom is in. I am not convinced of this personally but if they manage to pass the Clarity Act on September 15th I will be forced to abandon that belief. There’s a lot of great Scalp opportunities in a week like this one but I’d pay close attention to the outcome of the Wednesday news in this case.

In general if we RECLAIM the 4H SMA ABOVE the Bottom Band of the Downtrend AVWAP that IS going to pull the price HIGHER - at which point I will be forced to enter a Long trade - because that’s what the chart will be telling me to do. That’s not what I planned for for August - but I will remain adaptable to what the chart has determined the trend is.

The Daily holds all the POWER in determining the trend at the moment and you do want to pay attention to where the price closes today in relation to the Daily SMA (currently sitting at $63.8K). It looks like the Daily SMA has sloped UPWARD after barely tapping the Bottom Band of the Downtrend AVWAP therefore indicating that the price found $62.5K to be SUPPORT and that it wants to trend HIGHER - and only an INVALIDATION at those $64K levels I mentioned would be sufficient enough to reverse that trend to DOWNSIDE.

We have spent the past week disconnected BELOW the Daily SMA so it will be crucial to see whether it gets REJECTED today or if it RECLAIMS that level. If it does then we can still assume CHOP at the levels I mentioned but not necessarily an instant rise to HIGHER $65K targets - though I will update those via YouTube and the Daily Emails as they come up (4H Break Room first). I think this will ultimately be decided by that Wednesday news cycle outcome.

That’s why I wouldn’t be too married to one side of the trade or the other now. Also worth noting - ANY TIME we are BELOW the Weekly and Monthly SMA is a GREAT TIME to DCA. I write this Newsletter and make my content mostly around trading either side of the trend with Leverage - but don’t ignore the simple power of compounding your stack as well. Due to my ability to predict the price well I definitely focus more on the Leverage side but for anyone who is more conservative these are not levels you want to ignore for your cost basis.

It is harder for me to believe that the Bottom is in than it is for me to believe the market makers will violently shift the market later this year. All historical evidence points towards a Q4 Bottom - all of which have been “unexpected” at the time. So I am hesitant to accept HIGHER targets now like $73K (more on YouTube) and will do so solely when the chart has made it clear to me they are viable targets. With the Point of Control getting pulled LOWER over time it LESS impactful for us to hit those HIGHER targets and therefore just as easy to SELL OFF again.

If the Wednesday news confirms an overall BULLISH sentiment for the Clarity Act being approved or even makes the legislation outcome irrelevant then I would imagine the price will have its swing to $73.8K. So I will be ready to close my Short and enter a Long if necessary based on the Daily SMA close today and the results of the Wednesday news. Other than that just pleny of opportunities to catch Scalps in these ranges.

I think the Weekly is going to be the easiest timeframe for us to watch now. Because it’s just retracing its footsteps from the past month or so. With the Point of Control dropping LOWER across timeframes that actually confirmed a TRIPLE REJECTION on the Weekly timeframe of - the Point of Control, the $64K Fib Pivot AND the Bottom Band of the Downtrend AVWAP. So what is the first thing price is going to want to do this week? Test if that REJECTION is VALID. If it is NOT then price will likely trend toward the key STRUCTURAL Levels on the Weekly candles - which would be $64.7K, $65K, $65.3K and $65.7K respectively.

If it IS REJECTED then we just see another drop toward the Key $63K targets if it is not able to hold ABOVE $64K - we should know more by about Thursday. Broadly speaking the price will want a Weekly SMA RETEST eventually - but that’s still up at $68.8K and we’d need to see a crazy move for that to happen now - I’ll of course be covering that with Members first but I don’t personally see that happening this Week - we’ll see I could definitely be wrong about that.

Price will take it very seriously if it cannot RECLAIM those 3 Key Levels on the Weekly timeframe and it will necessitate another $62.5K RETEST but it’s just as likely that the Wednesday outcome propels us to those higher $64K and possibly even $65K targets that I’ve mentioned above. Technically we are holding an UPTREND from the perspective of the July LOWS and need to accept that as a possibility based on the UNCERTAINTY around this part of the News cycle (which you already know I think is LAME - but I don’t argue with the chart I just read it).

With the Point of Control being LOWER now at $63.5K I’m not convinced that we’re done there mostly just because retroactively this makes a lot of the recent Weekly candles more BEARISH than they were originally. And it’s that possible RETEST that is making me hold onto this Short. I have to be honest - I’d rather continue having a near perfect win rate with these Swings than maximizing Profits with them. The Profits will return but wasting Weeks on a Swing only to be wrong is a tragedy. Either way I will let the chart make the decision for me this Week.

The Monthly Open at $62.8K really complicates the Analysis for this stage of the cycle. On the one hand we have no historical context of TWO sets of Green Consecutive Monthly closes and on the other we only have evidence of 0-1 more Green candles in a Bear Market year in general. I suppose the argument could be made that the calendar year is less important and the exact length between cycle peaks is more important - but tell that to the banks that have major advertising campaigns built around the Christmas Holiday Season. So me personally if I see a GREEN August - logic would still tell me that September will end up being RED regardless of the outcome of the News. But that’s where Logic may be leaving the chat depending on the September 15th outcome. If Clarity does not Pass - all this BULLISH momentum EVAPORATES.

Obviously that’s very far away so we need to pay attention to whether August closes ABOVE or BELOW that $62.8K Level which it has now swept and at the very least FILLED the GAP that I’ve been talking about all month on YouTube. I think with the Point of Control being LOWER now it’s less likely that we have this magical run to $73K but again markets do not behave rationally when there’s CLARITY arriving about a narrative important enough to shift trend. Which I would otherwise still assume - is BEARISH until proven otherwise.

I’m not bothered if I have to flip Long on this trade. It is what it is. Do I believe that we’re going to carry this momentum deep into September? No not really. That again changes based on the Clarity decision but barring that I think all of this is just smoke and mirrors to get new money locked in ETFs before they dump the other side of the market. It is hard for me to believe that the new money they are funneling in now is MAGICALLY going to experience no pain at all in their investing journey. And therefore it is more likely to me there’s an event that attempts to shake those people out - and a LOWER Point of Control speaks to that.

I’m adaptable. I can and will update my opinion as the chart tells me to. But broadly speaking only the News could make this chart looks BULLISH to me - August definitely has historical context for being BEARISH and that combined with the Monthly candle closes doesn’t guarantee for me that the price will continue to head HIGHER instead of RETESTING $62.5K again and possibly even LOWER. Because the biggest question now really is whether or not the Bottom is in or not. What do you think? (I can and do respond to emails by the way so feel free to respond to this).

You need to have your plan for accumulating or leveraging solid for this stage of the cycle. Because things can change very quickly and then tend to stay the same for an even longer period of time. Focus.