Price is currently sitting right between the Middle Bands of both the Downtrend AVWAP as well as the Elder AVWAP that I talk about all the time on YouTube. New Fibonacci Pivots have opened on the 4H timeframe that could further indicate STRENGTH or WEAKNESS for us on the trend. That means $79.7K and $73.3K will be important in the near future depending on how price continues to REACT to $80K throughout the rest of the day today. IF it can maintain STRENGTH ABOVE that level then we are going to have to question whether price is forming a DOUBLE TOP from the May HIGHS or if it’s an early sign of REVERSAL for the same reasons we REJECTED $83K in May.

That means the 4H candles for today and tomorrow will likely determine whether the price needs to pull back toward those LOWER targets or if it prepared to keep pushing through the Anchored Volume Profile where it is thinnest - between $72K and $86K. We are looking to see if people with a higher cost basis start to thin their positions here or if they are buying more. If the price can start closing consecutive Daily candles ABOVE $83K then I will have to acknowledge the possibility that the downtrend is in fact over for now.

Structurally we’re still in a downtrend as long as the price doesn’t start to break out ABOVE $83K. If it does then we lose our certainty around the downtrend persisting and have to prepare for higher levels and what that will mean for the psychological of the market as we reach those levels. Where we are now is essentially the 2025 drawdown period so psychologically anyone who topped up during that time may also be feeling the same way now - I see a lot of this sentiment posted online.

I am of the opinion that this recent cohort of buyers via the ETFs is unlikely to magically experience no pain at all in their first Bitcoin cycle. To me it is much more likely that they will be tested rather quickly - even if that means the price trends upward for another month or two before finally finding its correction point. It’s worth noting that an August close anywhere near where we are now would make the role of September having a Red candle almost nonsensically easy. More on that below.

I made a lot of money just accepting the trend last Wednesday. And I have given up a good chunk of it just trying to anticipate Scalps while the market makes its mind up. But the best trades I’ve made all year have been very patient and just focused on when we have CLEAR evidence of trend. We do not yet have that and therefore I am cautious for now.

The Daily timeframe is also knocking on the door of the Middle Band of the Downtrend AVWAP but we do not have equivalent Fib Pivots yet for the Daily (apparently that is not until the start of September) so we’re flying blind here. Same logic applies as the 4H timeframe - if price begins to get multiple closes ABOVE $83K then structurally we may be in a CONSOLIDATION or UPTREND rather than a Downtrend continuation. And it may really look like an uptrend until the exact moment the Stock Market starts to show any WEAKNESS. I may be overemphasizing this event but I think it’ll flip any BULLISH momentum that Bitcoin has in an instant if SPY has a day where it drops more than 5%.

I do not see the Fed increasing their cap on buying back their own Treasuries as an inherently BULLISH event like the rest of the market seems to. Eventually it will lead to Quantitative Easing BUT that won’t occur until structural collapse in either the Stock, Real Estate or Bond market - and all of those will have a short term negative effect on the price of Bitcoin even if the money flows back into Bitcoin by the end of the movement - which I think is very likely this cycle.

You either believe the bottom is in and therefore price will continue to rise unimpeded until some significant event causes a RETRACEMENT or you’re a loon and you think it’s just going to the moon now despite the fact that the Stablecoin Act has not yet been finalized and all the other news stories are about significantly less amount of capital than the Stablecoins will unlock. For me I don’t think the mega pump happens until JP Morgan Chase is sending you little postcards in the mail about your limited offer Stablecoins bonus for x amount of transactions - because they are directly incentivized by the government to find new buyers for US debt and Stablecoins have to be backed 1:1 with a US cash equivalent according to the law as it stands now. Until that happens I don’t think we’re back in a Bull market yet and I place more weight on the likelihood of a Stock correction happening before that.

The biggest question at a moment like this is whether you are focusing on your Spot or your Leverage portfolio. Now according to Google the Spot exposure is $1 for every $94 of Leverage exposure roughly - which to me does not speak to a market that is planning on sticking around. This is a market that is doing its best to squeeze profits out of every bump in the price that it can - and it’s by far my best year ever for trading (all of my Altcoins wins were not as calculated as this year). Just as $1-3 Billion worth of Shorts got liquidated on this leg up - I see no reason why a significant amount of Longs won’t get liquidated if we find structural RESISTANCE at $83K-$86K the same as we did back in May.

You have to ask yourself if the combination of all the different news stories actually speaks to the buying pressure to keep the price elevated or if it’s more indicative that the price is simply volatile when we would expect it to be. For anyone that knocks a Q4 Bottom - they also have to ignore the fact that it’s rallied right before that Bottom on multiple occassions and it felt the exact same way that it does now for anyone calling the Bottom is in ahead of the chart CONFIRMING that is so.

Last week was a crazy candle there’s no denying that. According to the Technicals we should have seen a push LOWER and that did not happen. So this Week could very much be the same where we may expect a move LOWER and then see another leg HIGHER ABOVE the Middle Band of the Downtrend AVWAP - which is currently sitting at $79.3K on the Weekly timeframe. How price continues to REACT at this level is very important. I would still say a pullback toward $73.3K (and $73.8K) is fairly likely but we’ll know more by Tuesday night I would think whether that’s going to happen soon or whether we need more time rising HIGHER before a RETEST LOWER is necessary.

Price is more sensitive to the AVWAP on the higher timeframes so it will take a REJECTION of that level here somewhat seriously and that would allow for that initial pullback - which again could just be a bounce toward higher targets depending on whether logic and reason or hopium dictate the trend now. So I would say the likelihood of a move LOWER based on the Weekly candle close is the most likely outcome - but again that does not mean it’s what we’ll get. I would pay close attention to the REACTION at $80K-$80.1K if we get it again because that will give us a clue as to whether the price finds that level to be SUPPORT or RESISTANCE and then it’s just a matter of whether new buyers step up and outpace new sellers - because no one else bought these levels.

Between $72K and $86K is the thinnest range on the Anchored Volume Profile meaning it’s very easy for the price to get bullied in that range. That means significant volume can push it in either direction but once we start pushing toward $86K or higher it will call into question for everyone who bought in 2025 whether they should trim or add to their position that has been in loss now for over a year in some cases. These are people who were late to the game and don’t even custody their own Bitcoin - you should not assume automatically they will show up. I personally would assume more likely that they’ll do nothing at all.

The one thing we’re all looking for when investing and trading is CERTAINTY - and it doesn’t exist so stop looking for it. The best we can do is find a repeatable strategy that allows us to profit off either direction of the price and silently accumulate whenever the price is BELOW either the Weekly or Monthly SMA - and that’s really it. Anyone who makes it more complicated than that is selling you their agenda rather than the reality of how this asset class behaves. It is a LONG TERM hedge against Fiat Inflation - but in the Short term it will behave negatively when other Markets show structural weakness. Bitcoin does not exist in a vacuum - it has to keep playing with the other kids.

August is clearly going to close a Green candle - I don’t think it’s worth spending any mental energy proclaiming the contrary now. That would mean we’d retrace all the way back $62.8K before end of month and I don’t see that happening even if we do start to get REJECTED at the higher targets. As I’ve said now in many YouTube videos, we are nearing the time period where it does make more sense for us to RETEST the Monthly SMA than to continue staying below it (typically 7-13 months and we are now in month number 9). But same story applies - it can really look like we’re on our way to reclaim it and the S&P could start tanking the next day and completely invalidate it. Bitcoin is too small to weather major structural weakness everywhere else.

If price closes near where it is now the first thing price is going to want to do in September is test LOWER - so all I really care about between now and then is whether or not $80.1K is the current local peak or if it has enough steam to get a tag of $83K or HIGHER. This would complicate but not invalidate my thesis and I am prepared to accept whatever the chart is actually telling me alongside the broader narratives that I personally believe hold the keys. And structural instability in the Bond Market is definitely one of those factors.

If you haven’t figured it out by now this cycle I’m not betting on Bitcoin - I’m betting on myself. I’ve been preparing my Credit all year for my Credit Leverage Playbook and even that I am now prepared to commit more of the capital to trading than investing itself because I believe I can vastly outperform holding Spot Bitcoin by staying disciplined and applying my strategy consistently over time. Even with giving back money last weekend with Scalps I believe I’m up something like 520% this year - in my first year of trading NanoBTC Perpetual contracts. For me this is the path that I will continue to focus on.

To quote Tyler Durden - “You decide your own level of involvement.” There is nothing preventing you from simply accumulating Bitcoin and never looking at the price - I know plenty of people with steady jobs that make more than I do who will beat me with a simple DCA. But if you’re someone that doesn’t make a lot of money you need to be willing to spend time or money on improving your win rate and reducing your Losses while you find a strategy that serves you in your journey. I have found mine and you’re welcome to try it out with me in the 4HR Break Room. But just like anyone else - I’m simply reacting to what the chart is telling me and it’s telling me that volatility is about to return once again.

You either believe you are capable of becoming a better trader - or you believe that building someone else’s vision is a better path for you. Neither is wrong but you need to know which one you’re on.