IF Bitcoin FAILS BELOW $87.5K it will need to show STRENGTH ABOVE $85.8K with the Daily Bollinger Band level sitting at $87.1K a break there could put downside pressure on the price that is currently trying to decide whether we’re still in a BULL market or are well on our way into a BEAR Cycle for Bitcoin.

There’s nothing preventing the price from going LOWER to at least $86.1K again (I’ve posted about that level A LOT on social media) and it’s NOT the strongest level to begin with so we’re just really just looking to stay ABOVE the wicks of the previous weeks to show SOME strength.

As long as Bitcoin is BELOW 4H Anchored VWAP level (currently $95.2K) it will not have enough momentum to make another run ABOVE $100K.

IF Bitcoin can show STRENGTH between the $85.8K Fib Pivot and that $86.1K Weekly Close level then we could see a HIGHER LOW very soon.

Price has broken BELOW the bottom Bollinger Band and the slope is in favor of more DOWNSIDE momentum than UPSIDE. This means we really NEED STRENGTH at those levels I just mentioned above or LOWER is likely unless…

The only GOOD NEWS is that the $80K pivot on the Weekly and Monthly timeframes has formed a HIGHER pivot of $82.3K on the Daily timeframe. This means HOPE of SUPPORT well ABOVE the LOWS of last month - a miracle.

I think as long as we’re BELOW the 20W Daily SMA the price is in trouble - we were BELOW it for most of November and now that we’ve RETESTED it and given it up in less than a week that’s not a great sign for continuation to the upside. It doesn’t mean it’s impossible just less likely.

This kind of unpredictability is what makes Bitcoin great but the reality is your trading strategy will have to adapt with the momentum of the cycle. If you’re thinking of it with an investing mind then focus on increasing your income to take better advantage of these swings to DCA more.

There’s nothing inherently BULLISH about the shape of this trend right now as low as price is BELOW the 20W Weekly SMA at $106.3K. And while we’re back INSIDE the Bollinger Bands it isn’t exactly favoring the upside at the moment.

Even if by some divine providence Bitcoin were able to randomly climb back to $106.3K this week (which I am not expecting) if it STOPPED there it would STILL register as a FAILURE of that $106.7K level I’ve talked about a million times the last few weeks over on social media.

Price is CLOSER to a RETEST of the $80K Fib pivot right now than it is to breaking ABOVE the 4H Anchored VWAP AND the Key Anchored Volume Profile level at $96K - like I said - nothing interesting happens BELOW it.

This trend is more telling than anything else written above. Price does not interact with the Monthly SMA that often - spending YEARS at a time ABOVE it. So when it breaks BELOW it’s definitely worth paying close attention to.

I’ve said it multiple times on YouTube already but I believe we’re most likely to continue chopping around the Monthly SMA for December all the way through February - with a slight lean toward BEARISH trend.

There’s always a possibility that liquidity enters the market en masse and stablecoin volume next year WILL create that liquidity. But I don’t think it’s the perfect Cinderella story people think it is and I’ll write about that more in future newsletters. The money WILL come but it ain’t here yet.

Fingers crossed that I’m WRONG and Price ROCKETS thru $106.7K