As you can see on the chart the nearest Fibonacci Pivot Point is at $90K (slightly BELOW the $90.4K one we’ve talked about many times on Threads). Price FAILED to close ABOVE it multiple times going into the week already.

Price looks STRONG at the moment but if it were to start losing this level you’d want to pay close attention to a reaction $89.1K and $88.5K - that bottom is where the 4H SMA is currently sitting as well so very important.

After watching the prediction markets all weekend it’s clear to me that the market does not want to give up the year without a fight - even though the levels we’re holding are LOWER HIGHS not HIGHER HIGHS.

The 4H timeframe has been showing STRENGTH since Thursday of last week so it’s possible this momentum carries into Christmas if it can close ABOVE the Daily SMA as well - we’ll have to pay attention today to see.

If the price can maintain ABOVE the $90K pivot point we may even see another run to $94K-$96K but a REACTION to that level will be the CONFIRMATION we need to better understand overall market trend.

This whole week can really be summed up by how well the price REACTS to the Daily SMA where it is currently sitting as of the time of my writing this.

Price has STRUGGLED to RECLAIM the Daily SMA since losing it last Sunday and even if it breaks ABOVE it now there’s still nothing exciting happening for Bitcoin BELOW that $96K Anchored Volume Profile Point of Control level.

Meanwhile a FAILURE to close ABOVE $89.6K would indicate a return to DOWNSIDE PRESSURE going into the holiday and it’s unlikely that volume would randomly return to save the price if it can’t hold there early week.

I’ve just been repeating the same levels on every YouTube video and Threads post for several weeks now - the Daily SMA is the highest timeframe we have any signs of STRENGTH on but unless it can push to the Weekly and Monthly levels then it will continue to break down more.

Like I said last week this is why you really need to have a firm grasp on WHY you are buying and holding Bitcoin instead of just blindly assuming number will go up because Crypto influencers online said that it would.

The Weekly SMA is so far ABOVE the price at the moment that a rise to it would be both highly unexpected as well as VERY profitable for anyone positioned for it. But the likelihood every week it closes BELOW that $106.7K Weekly/Monthly pivot I’ve talked about a million times - is LOWER still.

While the Weekly SMA has been pulled down to $104.9K that’s still well out of range for the price currently without significant volume at key gaps between $96K and $102K. This will become fairly obvious on the chart if it arises.

The Weekly chart looks UGLY to me and it has looked that way since October. Anyone who is still arguing for a HIGHER HIGH in December is most likely delusional or is so highly connected that they know things about the markets that us mere mortals could never hope to grasp.

I do expect Price will eventually make a RETEST of that Weekly SMA but I’m not currently expecting that to be in December and I do think that it will continue to be pulled LOWER by the time it actually has a REACTION.

Nothing good for the Bitcoin price happens BELOW the Monthly SMA other than historically the best times to continue to DCA. This could be as many as 10-12 more months BELOW that line - which is a long runway for you to spend your cash accordingly without panicking as the price gets more haircuts.

IF Price rebounds back ABOVE it early next year and manages to stay ABOVE then it’ll have broken all previous historical precedents and not be something that is easily predicted. The fact that remains that any purchases BELOW this Monthly SMA will EVENTUALLY be in profit - even if you have to wait a while.

This is the part of the cycle that separates the veterans from the newcomers. It doesn’t matter whether you want to try and time selling your BTC to buy more or whether you’re just going to hold and continue to accumulate during this time period - just don’t forget WHY you buy it.

Broadly speaking when the Stablecoins go live next year with the major banks it’s going to fundamentally change the payment systems and access to capital of most people globally in a way that is hard to fathom now - but not without significant pain returning to the market first.

Here’s hoping that we’re all able to stack accordingly for when this pain has subsided and market resumes upside like it always does.