Last week was categorized by multiple attempts to get ABOVE $90.4K that could not hold volume while $86.1K slowly started to form as Support - with price staying ABOVE that level all week despite multiple attempts to touch it.

A Fibonacci Pivot has opened ABOVE at $86.6K which is a good sign that price is being pulled HIGHER despite this sideways consolidation - even just in the short term. Price has chopped above and below the 4H SMA all last week and it’s currently sitting at $87.8K with nothing exciting happening BELOW $88.2K

Nothing good happens BELOW the Daily SMA - except for long term accumulation. I see a lot of accounts still shouting about higher highs going into next year and I won’t believe it until I see it reflected on the charts. I talk about the Stablecoins more in last weeks Paid Newsletter edition so go check out that Preview and YouTube video for more info.

Price did basically nothing last week which is to be expected during Christmas but until Quantitative Easing really begins in earnest there is no new volume coming into Bitcoin let alone Cryptocurrency itself. It WILL come but it’ll be once the Stablecoins Acts are in effect and not before. So either remain patient or accept the gains are elsewhere.

I’ve said it many times but nothing exciting is going to happen for Bitcoin while it’s BELOW $94K-$96K and I stand on that belief. If we see a STRONG Reaction there it stills need to break ABOVE $106.7K and I just don’t see that happening in the short term - let alone by February.

Price recovered ABOVE the Daily SMA for a few days in early December and has otherwise been BELOW it since October - this is not a bullish signal. In the short term this will continue to put pressure toward the downside for price.

$88.3K is where the SMA is currently sitting but it’s been dropping steadily since October and does not have any pressure from the higher timeframes to pull it higher again. As long as price remains BELOW $96K there is no miracle. It’s going to continue chopping and likely retesting LOWS until liquidity arrives.

Meanwhile the volume profile gets thinner and thinner BELOW about $82.5K so any FAILURE there would not bet met with much Resistance - it would simply keep dropping once it’s broken the $80K LOW it did in November.

The Daily SMA is like the mediator for your parents when they’re fighting - it has no real power it just relays the news. If the higher timeframes say LOWER then it doesn’t matter if the lower timeframes print gains from time to time. The overall trend has been clearly BEARISH on the Weekly and Monthly timeframes for several weeks now going on Months.

While anyone with a long term view of the asset need not be worried - anyone with short term expectations of profits or new highs may be left waiting for a very long time. This is causing apathy in the markets which is potentially an early signal of recovery but we’d be breaking cycle trend.

While the Weekly SMA has continued to drop LOWER (now $103.3K) the $106.7K Fib Pivot would still be the ultimate decider of trend if price gets back there - which is looking less and less likely every day at the moment. Price has been BELOW the Weekly SMA since late October when it was almost $114K.

It’s possible that it keeps dropping LOWER to another critical point like $99K-$101K or even as LOW as $94K-$96K before we have another interaction but at that point any FAILURE may have catastrophic effects for the price and Support being still thin at best until major volume returns to the market.

Nobody has a reason to focus on Bitcoin right now with Gold and SPY at new all time highs - Bitcoin has been boring most of the year so why would the masses pay attention to it? This is causing any volume that would be in the space to funnel toward more speculative means for gains like prediction markets or memecoins - which does not help Bitcoin when most of that value gets wiped by people getting rugged.

But Bitcoin is BEST when its most boring and this may all help the price recover at the end of the day once all this speculation is wiped out. Eventually people will get tired of risking their money on other parts of the sector and they’ll return to Bitcoin once it’s showing more STRENGTH.

It’s very simple - IF Bitcoin closes Wednesday BELOW $88.9K then it’s going to experience more downside pressure. I’ve talked about it already in several YouTube videos and Threads but my base case belief is price continues to chop at the Monthly SMA until February and then likely drops BELOW then.

There is no historical precedent for Bitcoin to continue going higher immediately once it’s dropped BELOW the Monthly SMA. So you can keep listening to other people talk about another rise if you want but there is no recorded history of that being true based on the charts - and is therefore more likely to come later and not sooner - which is in line with the Stablecoins.

The Genius Act for Stablecoins doesn’t fully go into effect until January of 2027. So my base case remains that the price will continue down until October of 2026 at which point it will reach it’s local bottom before rising.

While it’s possible some miracle may occur between now and then I think about it logically. If I’m JP Morgan Chase and I’m about to buy hundreds of billions of dollars worth of US Treasuries and Bonds in order to back all the Stablecoins I’m about to issue - do I want my wealthiest clients to have EXPENSIVE or CHEAP assets to buy en masse with this supply? The answer to that question should be fairly obvious.

NOBODY WANTS TO FOMO INTO $120K BITCOIN. But any price BELOW $70K is going to look very attractive to people with money.