I have been and will continue repeating the same thing over and over here - when we lost the 4H Anchored VWAP level after RECLAIMING it for the first time since November - this was a clear signal that price would go LOWER. Now of course all markets were affected by Trump’s new Fed Chair nomination - but this was a minor sell off since that nomination is ultimately pro Bitcoin. We’ve now seen a MAJOR breakdown from the Anchored VWAP and are coming against pressure to sweep the 2024 breakout all time high levels.

Price has now dropped BELOW the $80K floor from November and there’s very little propping it up from another test LOWER now unless the rest of the markets rebound very strongly and pull Bitcoin along with them. For the most part, Bitcoin will remain the punching bag this year and therefore dollar cost averaging or waiting until lower is the best strategy for most people looking to maximize the Satoshi value of their portfolios regardless of the dollar value.

I don’t care about the news - I’ve been saying for several months that the price was going to continue breaking down and it has - nothing has changed in my opinion. The 4 year cycle still functions as it always has and that means that pressure is to the downside. That being said - IF $74.5K can hold as SUPPORT now then we’ll see a slight recovery and then period of CONSOLIDATION before any next major move occurs.

Psychologically speaking any hold ABOVE about $73K will be significant - just as $98K recently was considered a significant FAILURE of another RETEST of $100K. The larger the numbers are - the more likely it’s going to be simple and not complicated which prices the asset stops at each time. I still prefer to let my indicators and historical analysis make the decisions for me but a lot of times it is just as simple as the napkin math.

Basically price is caught right now between the 2024 breakout highs and the $100K psychological price ceiling. It is still my belief that we see another attempt toward the higher end of that range before a complete FAILURE of it later in March - though as time goes on I see that level more likely to be around $100K than previously any higher to $106.8K.

It doesn’t matter what timeframe you look at right now - things look bleak for the price and that’s something you should be looking forward to not dreading. The Daily timeframe is currently the worst it’s looked since November and this most recent FAILURE of price BELOW $80K may propel us more quickly toward a 2018 breakdown than what occurred in 2022. But no two cycles are the same.

We are currently down just under 41% from the October HIGHS and in both 2018 and 2022 it was much more severe by this time in the cycle - indicating we likely have much lower to go in the short term. There is nothing preventing the price from completely dropping to $73.8K or LOWER once it breaks $78.3K so now we wait until we’ve see if SUPPORT takes hold at Weekly level $76.9K.

If there is going to be another bounce HIGHER toward the $96K pivot then we would expect to see it within the first two weeks of February. Anything later than that and it’s more likely the price gets pushed down BELOW $73.8K and continues looking for SUPPORT between there and $50K - likely stopping at $63K along the way (since that is HALF of the October all time highs).

The Daily timeframe has been FAILING significantly for several months so it’s not really strange to me that trend is continuing rather than breaking. January closing that far BELOW the Monthly SMA is really not a good thing for the short term price trajectory. As I stated above, any recovery really needs to come between now and the next two weeks and that’s preferably WITHOUT a drop any lower than price has already done now.

There’s a possibility that the market interprets the 2021 Peak of $70K more psychologically relevant than the $73.8K 2024 Peak but it’s arbitrary in my opinion - once we test those levels the price will break. So what we’re looking for now on the Weekly is any signs that we have formed SUPPORT ABOVE both Peaks and are making one more round trip to $96K (with another perceived FAILURE of $98K and $100K).

In November we fell just about 27% BELOW the Weekly SMA before the price recovered into the $100K FAILURE in January that’s still affecting the price now. Now we are sitting at around 23% BELOW the Weekly SMA and it’s highly unlikely that will resolve itself in one week vs several weeks. Since it’s already been BELOW it since October of last year there’s little indication trend will flip.

As I’ve mentioned in several YouTube videos, I believe the Weekly SMA will continue being dragged DOWN until it crosses BELOW the $96K pivot point. This will make a RECLAIM of either point less BULLISH. Essentially if it broke the pivot point while the SMA were still ABOVE it - that would be BULLISH - if still difficult for price to push through. Because then $96K would act as SUPPORT. Whereas IF the SMA drops BELOW $96K and we have to break whatever level it drops to BEFORE being able to RETEST $96K - then $96K will act as RESISTANCE making any attempt higher unlikely if possible at all.

My general thesis is still that we’ve seen the local bottom and that price will now make one final attempt for $96K before throwing in the towel. IF price breaks BELOW $73.8K now then I need to accept that I’m wrong about that and it’s more likely that price breaks down to $63K than heading back to $96K any time soon. I don’t view any of the news (including the Crypto Market Structure Bill they’re meeting about) as BULLISH enough to revive where we are at this stage of the cycle.

Rational thinking leads me to believe these will at best be “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News” events and you can expect if a favorable decision is made this week THAT will be what’s given credit for this recovery rather than the fundamentals that I’ve laid out in this Newsletter. It’s my understanding that the bill would be in effect no earlier than 2027 and I’m now seeing projections as late as 2029 (which is crazy to me). If that’s the case then the liquidity everyone is waiting for and betting on in 2026 - does not exist so price will FAIL spectacularly once everyone finds out.

Best case scenario for the Monthly timeframe is a RECLAIM ABOVE $90.2K - which doesn’t sound like a lot to ask but it’s getting less and less likely. If Price mimics the same pattern as 2022 then we’ll see chop along the Monthly SMA until March but in 2018 it took much longer for the full breakdown and we are NOT seeing that currently. While the drop occured around the same time in 2018 it took all the way until August for it to break the Monthly SMA. And in 2022 it broke it in January - we broke it in November last year - so very early.

While still possible for it to chop along for a while - the odds are beginning to favor a further breakdown before whatever rise higher before full capitulation. All you can do now is work to increase your income so that you can dollar cost average more and take lump sum bets when they are available to you. There will be several opportunities this year that zooming out will regard as once in a lifetime opportunities. You just need to stay focused and keep stacking.

This is a BITCOIN focused Newsletter - that is the asset that you are focused on accumulating if you are reading this. You are not reading these emails to make more US dollars or whatever your local currency is - you want more Bitcoin because you understand the value of holding it. The next 6-9 months will be the best opportunities you have to load up if the historical cycle holds true. To me there is no sign that it’s broken.

I personally am focused on my Credit Leverage Strategy to amass more at proper LOWS but there’s nothing wrong with dollar cost averaging while we are BELOW both the Weekly and Monthly SMAs. You just need to be able to assess your own situation and level of risk and keep in mind WHY you are amassing this asset. You are doing so because it will increase the quality of your life in the FUTURE - not the present. Sometimes I think we forget that when the candles are all red.

With proper strategy and patience - you will amass more Bitcoin this cycle than you would have if you were chasing Alts or trades you have no business being in. Focus on Bitcoin. It will reward you.