There’s nothing overly cheerful about a 50% drop to the downside for Bitcoin over the course of the October HIGHS to now $59.9K serving as SUPPORT. But it’s completely normal at this stage of the 4 year cycle and is actually milder than previous Bear Markets so far in terms of volatility (I go over that in more detail in this YouTube video and many others if you’d like to learn more). The 4H SMA has finally rounded and sloped upward and while price has broken ABOVE and back BELOW early today it is showing some STRENGTH.

Pay close attention to the reaction to the $69.9K pivot - and keep in mind the psychological levels of $69K and $73.8K (2021 Peak and 2024 Halving Peak). If price can hold ABOVE that pivot then there is no need for another sweep of $63K-$64K before continuing this relief rally into March. At this stage of the cycle, a wise Bitcoin investor is focused only on reducing their debt, increasing their income and stacking as many Satoshis as their cashflow allows them to.

To be perfectly clear, I believe we are in a Bear Market - I have been saying that since the first Newsletter in December and I was saying on Threads in July how I believed $100K would not hold as SUPPORT once the cycle had topped. So when I’m looking at the charts now I’m not looking for signs we’re magically going to experience some new paradigm - I’m paying attention to how similar it is to past cycles.

The 4H Anchored VWAP is confirming this trend for me at the moment with price just having a reaction to the middle band for the first time in several years - this is inherently a sign of WEAKNESS since the price stays ABOVE that band for the most of the 4 year cycle (at least for an asset that is increasing in value over time like Bitcoin). So while a RECOVERY is likely now as I’ve been saying for weeks - it will likely be met with further downside pressure once a price level has been met with RESISTANCE.

To me that key psychological level is $100K. Since we FAILED this rally at $98K and the $96K pivot is so prominent on both the Weekly and Monthly timeframes - I would assume that price will climb no HIGHER than $96K between now and March if history holds true. Again I go over this in way more detail in most of my recent YouTube videos. So long term these are great prices - short term you better be careful my friends.

Last week price was pulled toward the $70.2K pivot point - which lies right between those psychological levels of $69K and $73.8K. Therefore this range is crucial for building SUPPORT or forming RESISTANCE and we should expect price to be very sensitive to any break ABOVE met with a later break BELOW. After $100K these are the most important psychological levels and once $100K is shown to be off the table for 2026 that will create more downside pressure.

If $70.2K cannot hold as SUPPORT then expect another RETEST of the $64K Weekly/Monthly timeframe pivot point and the psychological level of $63K (being the mid point of the October 2025 HIGH of $126K). How price reacts there will dictate whether or not price needs to find new LOWS or whether $59.9K is the LOWEST we need to go at this stage of the cycle. If price can climb ABOVE $73.8K then it needs to show STRENGTH at $75.5K before continuing the climb toward the Daily SMA at $80.2K (and still dropping).

A reversal back ABOVE the Daily SMA would be the BULLISH signal we are looking for to determine whether or not a March RETEST of $96K is possible. However price has spent considerably more time BELOW the Daily SMA than ABOVE it since the October drop and that doesn’t look like it’s changing soon. The current range is critically important and building volume here will help us eventually - even if the price just continues to bleed for the rest of the year.

The Daily timeframe looks terrible. As a bridge to higher and lower timeframes it’s been crumbling and in need of repair for months now. STRENGTH ABOVE $75.5K would lessen the need for price to RETEST $63K now and give more signal that upside momentum is still likely. But more pressure to the downside of $63K begs the question of how much LOWER than $59.9K can go - let alone how low it WILL go over 2026. This sounds like a bad thing but really it’s just an important to buy Satoshis at cheaper dollar values that will retain said value better over time than anyone who bought during the relative high points last year.

At this stage of the cycle you are just looking to preserve the Satoshi value of your portfolio - which means making hard decisions about where your capital is best deployed. That answer is not always in buying more Bitcoin and you need to acknowledge that as we continue to chop. If your time horizon is several years from now then yes blindly DCA away but if your cash position is limited or you want to deploy it most effectively then you’ll want to make sure you have some later in 2026.

When taking a look at the Anchored VWAP on the Weekly timeframe it shows a very similar pattern in January 2022 to what we just saw now. The UPPER band of the Anchored VWAP is now about 50% BELOW the wick of $59.9K. In 2022 it was about the same before the continued drop toward it by summer and then the full capitulation BELOW it in November during the FTX collapse. The Anchored VWAP is a free tool that tells me more about the price than any piece of news will ever say. And right now it’s telling me nothing has changed.

I’m going to explain this in more detail on today’s YouTube how I actually set this tool on my Bitcoin chart so that you can do so with yours as well. As I expected and have said many times now - the Weekly SMA has broken BELOW the $96K pivot which will force that level as RESISTANCE even if and when Bitcoin is able to make a rally ABOVE the Weekly SMA wherever it crosses. At the moment it’s at $94.2K and I would imagine it continues to drop between now and whenever that cross actually occurs - likely within a few more weeks.

I don’t argue with the chart - I just read it and make decisions accordingly. Historically speaking any Bitcoin bought BELOW the Weekly and Monthly SMA on the 20W timeframe has been a great opportunity. The same is true for now you just need to be prepared for it to lose value in the near term as nothing has changed in my opinion and we will see LOWER lows still going into the rest of the year. Especially with the White House having that MMA event in July - I just think Bitcoin is going to get rinsed and not have the massive liquidity event people are hoping for.

Just like we didn’t see higher highs everyone expected to last year. It’s possible a miracle occurs but it’s not the most likely scenario right now.

We’ve been BELOW the Weekly SMA since October - there is nothing BULLISH about a signal like that. To me it is very clear that downside pressure will continue even if it’s not identical to previous cycles. Either way I know that March and July will be very important to make decisions. If you are not prepared to make decisions then - the market will for you.

The Monthly timeframe also looks terrible. At this stage in 2022 the price was still holding on to the Monthly SMA - at our current stage we are well BELOW. In previous cycles the 50% retracement was actually more severe than now but the pressure is still overwhelmingly to the downside even if volatility is lower. The only silver lining at the moment is price closed well ABOVE the LOWER Bollinger Band - which either indicates we need to retest back BELOW it OR that for now that crisis is averted and we can make another attempt HIGHER.

Bitcoin spends MOST of its time ABOVE the Monthly SMA - so when it breaks BELOW it you really need to pay attention. There has never been a time in history where we’ve broken BELOW it as we have that was quickly met with a recovery back ABOVE it. This process is always long and slow and painful. Really taking one year isn’t that long or painful but it can be if you’re not managing your risk in an efficient way - and we can’t all be so lucky can we?

Based on my own Risk Metrics for my Credit Leverage Strategy - price BELOW the Monthly SMA indicates the LOWEST Risk for long term buys. There is still significant short term Risk but all I really care about is making sure I have as much available credit as possible for end of 2026. This strategy can also be deployed with a simple DCA over the course of the year but the math speaks for itself - being able to lump sum when it counts outpaces normal DCA but only if you know what to look for.

Lucky for you I know what I’m looking for and I’m happy to continue sharing it with you in these Newsletters and on YouTube as well. The Monthly SMA sits at $89.9K and I would be suprised if we see price RECLAIM that so the $96K pivot may in fact be well far out of reach. We don’t have any other instances on the chart where we reclaim the Monthly SMA quickly - so I’m gonna assume that’s still true now.

If you are trading then be cautious until the trend has made itself apparent - if you are buying and holding then get ready to HOLD.