Even calling it Bullish momentum is highly charitable but the fact remains that price has at least broken ABOVE the 4H SMA despite several breaks BELOW. Whereas the higher timeframes are still comfortably BELOW their SMAs and look as if they will remain so for the foreseeable future (especially Monthly). For the time being all we want to pay attention to is whether or not price can stay ABOVE the recent $59.9K LOW because that will determine overall trend.

With the 4H Anchored VWAP middle band sitting at around $65.7K that will give us early indication about whether or not a RETEST of the $64K pivot point is necessary before another sustained relief rally higher into the end of February. But at this point it’s just as likely that the price continues to break down and extending your time horizon for any Satoshis bought now would be best rather than expecting the price to snap to new all time highs soon. Price is currently touching the bottom Bollinger Band on the 4H so it’ll resolve to one side or the other by the time you are reading this in your email.

I went over this more on YouTube but it’s looking less and less likely to me that we see the RECLAIM of the $96K pivot point that I’ve been talking about for months now. It seems very likely that we got that initial break in January and have to accept that the price will continue breaking down now. If we start to see STRENGTH ABOVE $73.8K then there’s a possibility we make a sustained run back to the $80K pivot point but that will become much less possible if price breaks back BELOW $65.7K again.

It’s always interesting to me when I watch other professional trader’s video analyses on YouTube and see them repeating essentially the same levels as I am. And that’s really the power of learning Technical Analysis because the charts don’t lie they just give information. Please feel free to email me and ask any questions you’d like about learning more or watch some of my recent YouTube videos where I break down these patterns.

Psychologically speaking the market is caught between wanting to see LOWER Lows and accepting that $100K may no longer be on the table for this year. I expressed that in yesterday’s YouTube video how the range we’re stuck in is really between 2021 All time highs (which we’ve now broken BELOW) and the $100K psychological barrier that will end up forming as RESISTANCE for the foreseeable future if this relief rally cannot make it past the $96K pivot point by around end of March.

While the 4H is fighting for hope to rise higher the Daily timeframe is may be forming a pennant pattern HIGHER if price can close ABOVE about $67.5K today. There is no guarantee that some news event doesn’t drive it further LOWER - or that a major drop in SPY or Gold could hasten this move down. But the overall thesis of this Newsletter and my YouTube has been for a Relief Rally into March for several months now and that’s still what I believe most.

Showing WEAKNESS at the $70.2K pivot point was not what we wanted to see but it doesn’t necessarily invalidate a move HIGHER it just prolongs it. Meanwhile as long as price remains BELOW that pivot point the Daily SMA will continue getting pulled LOWER and it’s currently sitting at around $73K - which again would put more RESISTANCE pressure on the $73.8K psychological level from the 2024 early highs. Very important to watch.

Price has been BELOW the Daily SMA since late January and it’s not showing any signs of STRENGTH to break back ABOVE it so the question remains where the liquidity would come from the provide a higher high now - since the Anchored Volume Profile is very thin here between about $69K to $82K. So if we’re going to see that theoretical rise HIGHER then we need to see it soon.

There’s not enough of a reason right now for the markets to pivot back to Bitcoin. The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve has gone nowhere, the Crypto Market Structure Bill is being stalled by the banks fighting for control. Gold and SPY are still ripping even after minor pullbacks - so nothing screams for you to jump back into Bitcoin but the same story remains true as always. If you belive in Bitcoin then buying any time we are BELOW the Weekly and Monthly SMA historically will reward you over a long enough time period - you just need to be very patient.

If you need the money tomorrow or to pay your taxes then now is not a great time to be stacking - but if you don’t need the money any time soon then the next 6 months is going to be a great opportunity to stack cheap Sats. At the end of the day you need to make that decision for yourself if you’re simply trading the momentum or stacking for the future. This is not a decision I can make for you nor can anyone else.

That same pennant pattern on the Daily does not look as clear on the Weekly timeframe - it looks like we just broke it to the downside and should expect more downside volatility. The bottom Bollinger Band has started to curve less sharply to the downside possibly indicating that consolidation is on it’s way but is still very far from BULLISH at the moment. Really all we want to see is STRENGTH at that $64K pivot point if price needs to RETEST it and again any break BELOW $65.7K Anchored VWAP will not be interpretted as BULLISH.

The only hope here is that the ETF buyers step in and defend the levels they bought in 2024 but the inflows do not speak to that being the case right now. It’s more likely that many of these individuals either eat the loss and cut their positions to rebalance into Gold and SPY or they can come back and start buying up to defend their cost basis. But that would require total faith in the asset class - which newcomers probably do not have as much as we do here.

I say it all the time - Bitcoin is best when it’s boring. When everyone else is convinced that it’s dead and it’s never coming back is exactly when you should be doubling down on your Analysis to make sure you are prepared to enter the markets when it’s clear a reversal is on its way. I do not believe that time has come yet but it’s never a bad time to buy when BELOW the Weekly and Monthly SMAs as long as you can stomach drawdowns and one day you’ll wish you had more BTC BELOW $100K.

Really you have to think about it in context - many of you reading this have been following me almost a year now on Threads where I’ve been breaking down price movements Daily and if you were so keen to buy when price was ABOVE $100K then what is it that makes it less appealing to you now? As I’ve said many times now I do believe a Relief Rally is possible HIGHER - the likelihood is still that we see LOWER after that and that means there will be plenty of opportunities to load up so no need to panic and best to take your time setting a strategy and sticking to it.

The truth is the price has broken well BELOW the Monthly SMA and historically we have ZERO precedent of it recovering that level quickly once it has done so. You can listen to the news and the hopium if you want but the chart does not reflect it as truth. The truth is price will continue to consolidate and break down LOWER until it has CERTAINTY that it doesn’t need to break BELOW the top band of the Anchored VWAP on the Weekly and Monthly timeframes.

That level is currently sitting at around $28.7K which means price will continue to be pulled in that direction until it is CLEAR that it doesn’t need to touch it. I do not personally believe the price will go that LOW this time around. 2022 we barely touched the Anchored VWAP top band and that was before the ETFs and governments started to buy more Bitcoin - so it is likely to me that we see STRENGTH ABOVE that level - but the fact remains that the chart wants CONFIRMATION of that level before we are able to reset the cycle again.

I personally think $34K-$39K is a more likely bottom by the end of the year. In 2022 I had estimated that we would see a bottom of $10K-$12K and as we all know we bottomed around $15.4K and I’m expecting something similar here. If the chart is telling us $28.7K is a possibility then I would imagine we get faked out and it holds STRENGTH higher.

I don’t know if you would consider $34K as STRENGTH given the context of price being over $100K for most of last year but you have to take into account how the price moves once the cycle is resetting. And it moves down after reaching the new all time highs until all fear has been washed from the markets - we are still very far away from that moment now.

All that matters is whether or not you can stick to your plan and hold on through times like these - perhaps selling some would not be the end of the world but you either believe in the asset class or you don’t and that’s a decision you best start making very soon.