Last week wasn’t that bad until this Sunday evening when price had a MAJOR sell off and broke through the trendlines I’ve been watching as well as the 4H Anchored VWAP middle band that I’ve been making lots of content about. This invalidates the previous trend of setting HIGHER highs ABOVE that band and it will put more pressure toward the downside than the relief rally hopes. If price cannot begin closing multiple 4H candles ABOVE $65.7K then it will continue to dragged down closer to the $64K Fibonacci pivot point BELOW.

The wick of the Sunday drop went to $64.2K and closed that candle at $64.9K. There is no way to interpret that as a BULLISH signal - at best it’s consolidation instead of complete capitulation. A new 4H Fibonacci pivot point has formed at $65K in response to this trend but the overall shape of the trend now favors more downside the longer the price stays close to that Anchored VWAP level. Let alone how far it will drop if it closes below the key Weekly/Monthly levels.

Until Sunday the price was looking fine - it was holding ABOVE the trendlines I’m watching AND it had set HIGHER highs ABOVE the 4H Anchored VWAP middle band. And then that drop happened due to uncertainty around the Trump tariffs and Bitcoin is always the first asset to sell off when there’s massive uncertainty in the markets. It is a fool’s errand to try and predict these news events so we have to just focus on what the chart tells us - and what the chart tells us is very simple.

As long as price stays closer to the middle band of the Anchored VWAP instead of the upper band - the momentum will favor the downside. The only levels preventing further collapse are the $64K HTF Fib pivots and the $63.1K 50% retracement psychological levels - both looking thin now.

If price begins RETESTING those levels then there’s very little preventing it from seeking new LOWS beneath the most recent break to $59.9K. At that point the only thing holding up the price is all of the IBIT ETF buyers who don’t want to see their positions swing into the red after they’ve been holding the ETF for just 2 years. We now must rely entirely on the conviction of people who don’t believe enough to hold Bitcoin itself instead of an asset that tracks it. Think about that as we move forward.

When you zoom out to the Daily timeframe it looks a bit less terrifying though still quite tenative as to the direction momentum will swing to next. Price is technically still in an uptrend from $59.9K LOWS until it breaks BELOW $64K. But because price dropped so drastically after the Sunday close it put undue pressure to the downside for the next few Daily candles and further extends the amount of time until we see another Daily SMA RETEST. And we need one.

If price cannot break back ABOVE that Daily SMA at $68.2K (and still dropping) then it is very likely February will close BEARISH - confirming 5 red monthly candles in a row. There’s still plenty of time for price to close Monday ABOVE $65.9K but anything BELOW that is just going to force price to RETEST the 4H Anchored VWAP middle band once more and that’s not BULLISH for the price.

With the Daily Bollinger Bands tightening it’s clear there’s a massive move coming for the price - but that move may not be expressed in the month of February and we need to be prepared for the snap in either direction moving into the month of March. Historically there are a lot of similarities to previous Bear market years and the exact timing won’t be the same but you can watch most of my recent YouTube videos if you want a further breakdown on that.

The Daily timeframe has looked ugly since October with only a brief respite in January - so there’s no reason to assume price is magically going to resume BULLISH momentum any time soon. I have basically given up my hopes of a RETEST of $96K into March-April that I’ve been talking about for several weeks and now I’m not even sure we get that relief rally bounce to the $80K pivot - that’s how bearish trend is now.

Nothing has changed about my overall thesis that we see LOWER LOWS to come - it just does seem to be happening earlier in the year than most people had anticipated and that could move up the window of time for the absolute bottom. Most people would assume that bottom arrives around October but if we’re already capitulating BELOW the 50% retracement mark so violently going into March then it’s possible we see the absolute LOWS as early as July and then begin RECOVERY after that.

Obviously we’ll know more about that trend as we close out Q1 in March.

We’ve been watching the range between the $64K and $76.2K Fib pivots for several weeks now and the trend is clearly favoring the bottom of that range. If price closes even sort of close to $64K then it’s going to put violent pressure to the downside and the next Weekly Fib pivot level at the moment is $44.2K. That would wipe out the gains of almost every single holder of the IBIT ETF.

Like I said earlier, this is very important in terms of testing the conviction of the bulk of the volume for purchases of Bitcoin in 2024. If those people decide they’d rather sell their IBIT than continuing to watch it drop in their retirement accounts - then BlackRock will sell the underlying Bitcoin and the value will continue to drop until such a time that their customers want to buy back in.

This is the world post ETF and post Bitcoin Treasury companies - we have to accept that liquidity is now in the hands of people who don’t even believe enough to custody their own Bitcoin - to them it’s just about the dollars.

I don’t care about the news - I care about what the chart tells me. And what the chart tells me is the same as every other Bear market. The news stories will be different but everyone will claim that Bitcoin is dead and that the price will never recover - and then it will and anyone holding it will be rewarded handsomely for being patient and disciplined. While we are BELOW the Weekly and Monthly SMAs it is historically a great time to DCA even if you experience later periods of drawdown later this year.

But adding leverage and over trading during times like these is how people lose their accounts. There is no need to panic just because the price is going LOWER. Simply focus on your own income and buy more as the price allows you to - nothing has changed about the overall thesis and value proposition of Bitcoin. Governments and corporations are still buying it so there’s no reason to assume that it’s actually dead this time.

I’ve seen people talk about how uncommon 5 consecutive red months is for Bitcoin and how it must be signaling a BULLISH recovery but I don’t think it matters very much. I care more about the moving averages and the moving averages say the price is going to continue going LOWER not recover HIGHER. The Monthly Fib pivots are the same as the Weekly so pay very close attention to where we close on Saturday for the Month because that will either add or relief pressure for where the Week will close relative to the $64K Fib pivot.

The only potential SUPPORT that we could find BELOW that pivot is around $54.3K where the bottom of the Monthly Bollinger band currently sits - BUT it is just as likely that it breaks through that level and forces the band to open. Once that happens the price will likely fully enter capitulation mode so you should expect the prices to drop LOWER and LOWER with chop for the rest of the year. If that sounds terrible to you then you’re just new here it’s okay.

Bitcoin rewards only the patient and those willing to keep stacking more of it.

The Price going down after the Bull market peak is a FEATURE not a BUG. So we really shouldn’t be SURPRISED when this occurs every 4 years like clockwork. The actual breakdown to the 50% retracement was less violent than in previous cycles but it is occuring a bit earlier than before. I think this is partially because they want to rush that Crypto Market Structure Bill but it makes timing the absolute bottom very difficult.

It is therefore in your best interests to focus on a DCA strategy rather than a lump sum but either way your mind should not be on profits this year because there will be few to be found unless you are a proficient trader taking action on both sides of this ever narrowing range we’re in.

Sometimes the best thing for you to do is nothing at all - and the key is learning when and why to move your money to/from Bitcoin.