Free Preview
With Trump recently making headlines about proposing to ban institutions from buying single family homes - it’s worth taking a look at the Housing Market itself in relation to Bitcoin so we can better navigate both cycles. In this newsletter I’ll lay out my thesis for how Bitcoin will continue to gain value against the average home price over time while discussing the concerning signs that a Housing Market pullback could still be far off.
The Price of Homes in Bitcoin terms has continued to drop overtime but the pattern reveals something important about Bear Markets.
While US Housing did see a dip in 2025 it has at the moment recovered the peak prices and it’s too early to know what’s next.
While it doesn’t seem like the chart goes anywhere but up there are historical precedents for long corrections in the Housing Market.
If House Prices keep rising it’s not good for Bitcoin in the short term but one day the value stored in houses will shift to Bitcoin itself.
What does the chart say about Housing?
Despite a major pullback in 2025 the Housing Market does not look ready to start dropping at the moment.
Last year I was watching this chart very closely - because a series of downtrend months really does not happen very often on this chart. In fact only about 3 times since 1991 and one of them was the 2008 Housing Market Collapse. So any time the price nears that Orange SMA line is worth noting. The downtrend went until July data and then August saw recovery back to December 2024 levels and as of October 2025 data price has recovered the highs of Q1 2025.
When you extend the timeframe to a 3 month candle instead there was significantly less risk this time around of a drop to the SMA and it actually looks like 2022 in general was more of a scare for housing than 2025 was. If it continues to rise from here then it’s unlikely liquidity will flow back into Bitcoin as people will be more focused on getting in on houses before prices rise. Trump successfully locking Americans into 50 year mortgages just changes the owner of the home to the banks instead of the financial institutions - and at the end of the day most people will never actually own the home they bought.
MY Perspective
I don’t personally focus much on the Real Estate Market. For me any time I hear someone describing them overleveraging to buy more homes just to collect rent from other people - it just doesn’t compute to me how that’s actually providing any value to the market place. It’s actually just a really extractive exchange that benefits the owner more than the renter.
That being said it does directly affect the ongoing narrative for Bitcoin because many people view their homes as a store of value - though again most of them will never actually own their home and all of the value is just paid to the bank unless they pay off their mortgage. Just over 40% of home owners are living mortgage free but that number is skewed because of the older home owners - less than 28% of people under 65 have paid off their mortgages. Which means reality is most of them are just carrying debt and not actually amassing an asset.
If you work for 30 years you may have a fully paid off home and not have to worry about making rent payments - but you’d still have property taxes and utility costs as well as any expenses you put into the home. You may achieve the same value as your paid off in considerably less years with Bitcoin and the real change will take place when people start flipping homes for Bitcoin that they bought with Fiat debt. That’s when we could really see a major market correction but more on that later.
You can see each of the charts below a little better in the full $ YouTube at the bottom.
Subscribe to our premium content to read the rest.
Become a paying subscriber to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.
Upgrade