December broadly could be categorized as a FAILURE to reclaim $96K after losing several key levels in November. There’s now even more pressure around that level because the 4H Anchored VWAP has risen to $95.5K as well. As I’ve talked about across social media and YouTube - when the Price interacts with the Anchored VWAP it is definitely worth noting as it’s a fairly rare occurance.

To the upside - $95K, $95.5K and $96K all have major indicator points that we’ll need to see STRENGTH at or the Price will likely have to test LOWER again. There’s always the possibility Price needs to RETEST LOWER to $91.5K at the 4H SMA but it looks to be rising and a RETEST of $95K-$96K looks more likely at the moment with this fresh wave of new year excitement going on.

I’m just gonna keep repeating the same opinion every week until something changes. Nothing exciting is going to happen until we have multiple Daily closes ABOVE $96K. And even then it only really gets exciting if we can close ABOVE $106.8K which I’ll talk about down below.

4H Anchored VWAP is definitely what I’d be looking at first and foremost - $96K has lost some of it’s prominence on the Anchored Volume Profile but has opened up as Fibonacci Pivot on the Weekly timeframe which is very important to pay attention to - basically we need CONFIRMATION of that level this week or it’s likely we’re going to bounce back BELOW.

My general opinion is still that the market is now BEARISH unless we can start closing ABOVE the levels I have stated here. I go into more depth in my last few YouTube videos if you want a deeper explanation on it.

This timeframe looks the best it has since the early December RECOVERY after the November LOW. The general shape of the uptrend is healthier now than it was in December so a lot of the levels I was talking about then will once again be relevant now - the only difference is we’re more likely to hit them now.

With Price finally being back ABOVE the Daily SMA we just need to look for the reaction to $96K to confirm if it has legs to test HIGHER to $99.5K and of course $100K psychological level will be very important as well. $99K-$101K in general is a very important signal but $96K and $106.8K are more likely to determine trend than $100K is right now. The narrative has already flipped against it going back ABOVE - so any move there now would be temporary.

It is of course POSSIBLE that price shows STRENGTH ABOVE $96K into $100K AND also at $106.8K but that’s a lot of Christmas wishes and Santa Claus is already back in hibernation for the year. These levels may seem close together but each one is going to be a battlefield to reclaim over the coming weeks.

I think $96K is the most important level here (including the 4H Anchored VWAP level at $95.5K) and a rise ABOVE it could very well be false confidence of a move higher. I don’t know that I believe the $100K+ narrative is STRONG enough to carry the price now. And I think a FAILURE around there is much likely at this stage of the cycle.

The way I’ve worded it in several YouTube videos is - the one news story every station is going to run for each year. For 2026 it would be - How LOW can Bitcoin go? 2027 it would be - Can Bitcoin get back ABOVE $100K? So it stands to reason they need to STRENGTHEN the emotional weight of the $100K level again in order for this to work and it probably is stronger if it FAILS it right now instead of reclaiming it and failing.

Either way I wouldn’t expect it to stay above that level for very long now.

When the $96K Fibonacci Pivot point opened up on the Weekly timeframe it was several weeks after I’ve been repeating that number over and over. There’s a good reason I repeat the same levels and it’s because price typically needs CONFIRMATION that we’ve moved on before it can do so. That means it’s crucial and important THIS WEEK not just in general - so pay attention.

IF Price closes ABOVE $96K on Sunday - then the story next week will be whether or not it can maintain ABOVE that level. IF Price closes BELOW $96K on Sunday then it will make one more attempt at it before FAILING completely. It’s also quite possible it reaches that level earlier in the week and spends the rest of the week giving it back. Either way - that’s the most important level on pretty time every timeframe at the moment like I’ve said.

$96K is really all that matters. I know I keep repeating it. But there’s a reason for that. Depending on how Price reacts there will tell you whether you should be trimming or adding to your Crypto assets. This is obviously very important information then. I can believe price will go ABOVE $96K but I really don’t see it going ABOVE $106.8K and that’s if it can even show STRENGTH at $99K-$101K like I mentioned. Which remains to be seen - the Stablecoin Acts still aren’t live yet so any liquidity now is just a drop in the bucket compared to then.

I don’t want to be overly BEARISH but as long as we’re BELOW $106.8K you’re just going to hear me repeat that same level over and over.

We are in the 3rd consecutive month of Price interacting with the Monthly SMA (to the downside) - this has never been a bullish signal in the history of Bitcoin - nor in my understanding of the history of any other asset. A January ABOVE December’s $87.5K is very likely but that doesn’t mean it’s going to close up at $96K where we are currently hoping to see more STRENGTH.

I’ve talked about this trend in more depth on YouTube but essentially it’s looking more like 2022 right now than 2018 - meaning it’s happening very quickly instead of more gradually. With Gold and SPY still at all time highs there’s really no reason to focus on Bitcoin while it’s still struggling.

I’ve said this across my recent YouTube videos - I believe that Price is going to chop between now and March. It’s going to struggle between $96K-$101K like I’ve mentioned above and it would have to break all historical precedents to keep rising here after already breaking the Monthly SMA to the downside. Not impossible but not very likely.

I am personally choosing to devote more capital to paying down debt rather than DCAing into Bitcoin yet. It is my assumption that the price will continue to drop after this move into March - and once we are back BELOW $80K I think it’s more reasonable to DCA in earnest. This is of course not investing advice but that’s what I will be looking at personally.

You need to figure out your own strategy for maximizing the SATOSHI value of your portfolio because it’s most likely going to lose value in dollars for the year unless we’re all very lucky.