Bitcoin is currently sitting right around the $91.6K Fib pivot on the 4H but the same analysis remains true that as long as we are BELOW both $96K Anchored Volume Profile level and $95.7K Anchored VWAP level. Price will need CONFIRMATION of both these levels if it has any hope of higher highs. Until that point it will keep forcing a bounce lower every time it fails this level.

On the way to $95.7K there are two Fib pivots that we’ll want to pay attention to - $93.7K and $95K - but really pay attention to if price wicks or powers right through $95.7K because I think that will be more telling for trend short term. Downside momentum could be accelerated if price fails BELOW $90.7K but the 4H SMA is showing some signs that it has corrected and is trending higher.

If you’re hearing me repeat a level over and over - week after week - it’s because it’s very important and not something that happens all the time. I never redraw my Anchored VWAP tool - because I am specifically using it to predict the lows of each cycle on the higher timeframe. But the bonus of doing so it is the information it gives on the 1H and 4H timeframes - which tells pretty clearly when a price is ready to run higher again vs being stuck in a consolidation period. So when I mention $95K or $95.5K ($95.7K at the moment) - it’s just because that level of the Anchored VWAP WILL determine whether we can regain bullishness.

The reality is Bitcoin moves slowly and then rapidly all at once and it doesn’t have to seem random if you know which levels to look at. If price can regain STRENGTH ABOVE $95.7K and $96K then likely it’s game on for another test higher. But I’ll give my opinion on which level could cut that run short a bit later on in the newsletter and in today’s YouTube.

As of January 1st price has recovered the Daily SMA (talk about timing) and while it has already wicked back to it last Thursday - there is a clear uptrend forming on the Daily timeframe. The Daily pivots are similar to the 4H ones - with $92.8K (4H $93.7K) and $95.3K ($95.1K) showing a bit more resistance to the lower side of the range than the topside. Any reaction to $95K+ will either embolden or cut short this rally so all we can really do is watch those levels.

Price is in essentially the same level as last year - though last year was prompted by a rally into these levels rather than a rally DOWN to them. And importantly price is still ABOVE the LOWS of 2025 - possibly establishing more STRENGTH in this range $80K-$90K. Assuming price can break back ABOVE $95K-$95.7K then we’ll want to watch the REACTION to $99.5K and just generally the range between $99K and $101K will be very important to see.

$101K is likely the make or break level for the narrative cycle - IF price can break back ABOVE $100K now and stay there for a period of weeks or months then there is hope of a continued run. But IF price FAILS hard at that level and continues to consolidate BELOW it then every day it does so puts more pressure for the price to resolve to the downside to retest lower lows.

The Daily timeframe is very important - price showing STRENGTH at a retest of the Daily SMA last week was worth noting and should help another move higher this week. I kind of don’t care about anything BELOW the rising Anchored VWAP level around $95.7K. Based on how price reacts there will let you know whether or not to enter with size.

There’s a few Monthly closing levels that may have relevance on the way to those prices at $93.4K and $94.1K but the trend is still fine right now. It’s not likely that the Anchored VWAP level will continue to hold as RESISTANCE it just lets us know whether the big move is ready or not. Like I said in my recent YouTube videos - I am short term bullish but overall still bearish on what I expect price to do for the year.

The higher timeframes don’t look great unless you really extend your time horizon. Technically speaking ANY time we are BELOW the Weekly SMA is historically a good time to buy relative to what price will one day be. But in the moment and with no certainty of future downside volatility it’s a hard buy. The benefit of the Weekly SMA dropping is a REACTION to it will give us more confidence about the overall direction of the trend moving forward.

A move to $106.8K seemed more likely when the SMA was still ABOVE it but now it’s further and further out of reach and it would take a massive move to the upside to reclaim it. The Weekly SMA has dropped to $101.6K and it will be LOWER by the time price actually interacts with it - likely late this week or early next if we don’t have a major FAILURE coming up that drags us lower.

We can’t ignore the historical trend and the reality that Stocks and Gold are still ripping and Bitcoin is clearly not. There’s no reason for any new liquidity that does enter the markets overall to flow to Bitcoin instead of these other assets that are showing more clear signs of STRENGTH. That means you need to be patient and pay attention to the big levels like $96K, $101K and $106.8K - reactions to those will help indicate trend.

But the reality is that we are in a bear market until proven otherwise not the other way around. Like I mentioned in yesterday’s YouTube video the ETF outflows are outpacing inflows at the moment so unless they pass the Stablecoin Acts well ahead of the July deadline then I don’t see that liquidity entering the space any time soon. And it will take time for the Stablecoins in banks like Chase and Citi to fully find their place in the financial stack of most of their clients. This will be a slow process not an overnight blast to new all time highs like some people seem to think.

The $96K pivot point has opened up on both the Weekly and Monthly timeframes - separate from the fact that it is an Anchored Volume Profile level. What this means is any close BELOW this level at the end of January would likely be interpreted as a FAILURE of that level. The closest other Fib Pivot on the Monthly is $76.2K and going there would not be unlikely if we show WEAKNESS at $96K especially multiple weekly AND a monthly close BELOW.

The closest pivot point ABOVE is $115.9K but I wouldn’t hold your breath for that one. It’s highly unlikely price will magically teleport there before the end of the month and there’s no historical precedent for a move like this so late in the cycle. Any sincere push to that level or higher would come after showing STRENGTH ABOVE $96K and $101K. The reality is this move may take multiple months and should be assumed all in the next 20 days or so.

I am fully expecting price to go no higher than $106.8K this time around. If indeed it can get that high at all. ABOVE that level I will need to reconsider my analysis but anything below there and I’m confident the price will need to retest LOWER not HIGHER. Narratively speaking I think when the Stablecoins go live the issuers are going to want LOWER Bitcoin prices to further entice their customers to put more money in.

Just logically speaking - you’re the banks. You have the ability to print stablecoins out of thin air and your customers are giving you the cash to buy the treasury assets you need to fulfill their services. And now you can offer them cheaper and faster transfers and make it easy for them to also buy Bitcoin directly from their accounts as well. Can the bank make more money from their customers with Bitcoin ABOVE or BELOW $100K?

The answer to that should be fairly obvious but ask yourself anyway.