When I talked about the Anchored VWAP level last week on the 4H timeframe the level was $95.7K and it has slightly risen to $95.9K. Unfortunately the 4H SMA has started curving downward so it’s likely that a RETEST of the $95.9K level would take place over several days and not before a RECLAIM of $94.3K. But before that movement can be expressed we need to find the local bottom.

$90.8K is the next fib pivot BELOW and early January already saw a lot of consolidation around the $90K level so it stands to reason we’d want to pay attention to whether that level forms as SUPPORT or RESISTANCE short term. A RETEST around $90K should not be viewed as BEARISH just necessary now.

I’ve been repeating myself about the 4H Anchored VWAP dictating whether the trend is BULLISH or BEARISH since November. And nothing has changed - as long as we remain BELOW the upper band then the price will continue to range or trend toward the middle band. The middle band is currently at about $65.2K which I do believe we will hit at some point later in 2026. I think it’ll go lower but that’s not the point right now.

Until price can confidently close ABOVE $95.9K it will continue to bounce off that level and chop lower while building SUPPORT. In my opinion it will find that support and the price will trend higher between now and March where it is likely to peak from that movement progression.

I’ll talk about it more in the higher timeframes but the levels remain the same to pay attention to - $99K to $101K and $106.8K. Nothing else is as important to how the price behaves at and around those key levels.

Price has been fighting to hold above the Daily SMA for months now with January really being the first signs of a counter trend since a minor one in early December. But overall this downtrend has been present since October. While the overall shape of the trend now does look BULLISH we don’t want to ignore the reality that the overall trend has still been consistently down over months.

The channel trend looks primed to keep testing highs as long as it doesn’t break down BELOW the Daily SMA for more than a day or so - that level is currently at $92.5K that we really don’t want to see it stay below for long.

Until price can RECLAIM the 4H Anchored VWAP level as SUPPORT it will have no hopes of filling out the next major gap in the Anchored Volume Profile. From about $97.8K to $101.2K is fairly light in terms of volume levels. With the short term holder cost basis sitting at about $98K right now that means we are still sitting BELOW the average cost of the MAJORITY of Bitcoin holders right now. As I talked about in Sunday’s YouTube video - it’s likely it stays BELOW.

Overall price trend is still clearly lower to me but on the Daily and 4H there will be real chance for higher at least until March in my opinion. I’ve talked about these levels several times and now that we’ve seen a REACTION to the 4H Anchored VWAP that resulted in RESISTANCE - it will take a bit longer for the price to resolve higher instead of chopping.

I don’t think $99K to $101K will be the absolute top of this price progression - I think it’s somewhere closer to $106.8K which I’ve also talked about for several weeks now. But breaking $100K again may be an important psychological barrier that actually takes longer to express.

The way I think about it is simple - news companies will get more use out of their headlines if the $100K narrative stays relevant. If it blows right past it then it’s boring - if it fails below it then not enough people FOMO in to profit the big accounts. So what the market makers want is a slight pump ABOVE $100K that felt like it was hard won.

On the weekly timeframe even though Bitcoin set a higher high it still registered as a FAILURE to close ABOVE $96K for the fib pivot level which happens to be slightly ABOVE the 4H Anchored VWAP level as well. That means it will now need to test lower to regain STRENGTH for another RETEST.

The Weekly SMA continues to drop and it’s signifying $100.7K will be the make or break level which makes sense because it’s right about in the middle of the range I mentioned between $99K and $101K. Some of this is fairly obvious just because the numbers themselves are so large - obviously $100K itself you don’t need a reminder to believe that’s important. But it shifts narrative dramatically now as we’re rising ABOVE it compared to the first two times it has done so - that being late 2024 and early January of 2025.

The overall trend for both 2018 and 2022 at this time was one last attempt higher before fulling accepting failure to the downside. In 2018 the price did not break ABOVE the Weekly SMA again in Q1 and then it fell further - and in 2022 it broke ABOVE it by March and FAILED it April. Even 2014 looks the same with a RETEST right around March though with a different trend structure than 2018 or 2022 - I’m expecting something closer to 2022 than 2014 or 2018 but it’s trivial to nitpick.

History shows us that the peak set in the post halving year is typically going to get cut in half at the very least by the end of the pre halving year - since we are now in a new cycle effectively until the 2028 halving. So if $126.2K is the highest expression of price in 2025 then the general trend of price in 2026 should be TOWARD $63.1K and possibly LOWER. You can listen to Trump and Michael Saylor and Tom Lee say otherwise but I’m going to let the chart tell me the trend and go from there.

Bitcoin is caught between a rock and a hard place - being that $100K is a pivotal level it needs to reclaim but also not one that it’s ready to sustain indefinitely without a full bear market rotation. After the ETFs caused a major spike in the price in March of 2024 to new all time highs - it’s always possible there can be a white swan event that soars prices past key RESISTANCE levels. But it’s more likely this catalyst is the Stablecoins Act and that’s being delayed.

Bitcoin would need to close January ABOVE $111K to be considered BULLISH on the monthly timeframe and I don’t see any likelihood at all that it happens. That goes for the rest of the year as well - if price can’t close a Monthly candle ABOVE that level then any chance of new all time highs is not gonna happen.

Liquidity is the name of the game right now and there isn’t any for Bitcoin and certainly not for Altcoins. The Clarity Act being delayed puts the Stablecoin inflows on hold. The US government possibly seizing Veneuzeula’s Bitcoin reserve lends more credence to the likelihood they’re going to continue SEIZING Bitcoin instead of BUYING it to fill the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve that never actually seems to go anywhere. I think they’re going to string people along with this narrative all year.

You can quote me on it if you like - I don’t think we see meaningful inflows with the stablecoins until Q4 of this year at the earliest and more likely Q1 of 2027. A rally ABOVE $100K will be enough to get some uneducated investors to load in with size but most people are not going to rotate out of Gold and SPY to buy Bitcoin when it looks like it does.

I personally am focused on reducing my debt and increasing my income this year so that I am ready to scale hard into a lump sum and DCA strategy later this year but that’s not financial advice.