Since Bitcoin FAILED that $90.8K fib pivot we saw it RETEST the Anchored Volume Profile Point of Control at $87.6K (the point of MOST recent volume) and it held briefly before another FAILED $90.8K RETEST that broke the price down BELOW $87.6K. It looks like there’s some STRENGTH around $85.8K at the moment but I wouldn’t be that surprised to see us lose that level soon.

As long as price is BELOW the 4H SMA there’s little hope of us regaining the momentum that earlier January promised - and at best now we’re looking for a monthly close ABOVE $89.9K which is currently very far out of reach. Pay attention to possible STRENGTH if price can reclaim ABOVE $88.5K but at the moment the pressure is definitely to the downside unless it break that level.

I think the price is going lower until early February and then it’ll make another attempt at the $96K pivot on the Weekly level after FAILING it this month on the Monthly and Weekly levels. FAILING the Anchored VWAP level wasn’t good - and psychologically $98K also registered as a FAILURE of the $100K RETEST - which is also obviously not bullish data.

If it plays out like Q1 of both 2018 and 2022 then we can expect some chop between here and March with a minor rise toward $100K and possibly $106.8K if we’re able to see an upswell here but if price needs to break down as low as $80K again there’s a chance we never see that high.

Best case scenario here is showing STRENGTH at the end of January ABOVE $89.5K-$90.4K which may let us break the $96K pivot early. But if the downside momentum persists into February then I think it’s less and less likely $106.8K is the likely top and more certain that $100K itself will be the highest we can get if we do indeed even get back there in Q1.

The Daily SMA can’t seem to catch a break this part of the cycle - with price considerably more time BELOW it than above it. It’s currently sitting at $91.5K which feels very far away and I would imagine during this downtrend that it will continue to get pulled lower toward that $88.7K Daily fib pivot level. The Bollinger Bands are sloping downward and it doesn’t look done dropping yet.

The Anchored Volume Profile is actually very thick around these levels so it’s possible we find SUPPORT before needing another RETEST of $80K but the trend of 2018 and 2022 does not favor a BULLISH end to January - and neither does the current trend breakdown. Price is currently BELOW where we would want to see it to maintain STRENGTH off the previous attempt at $80K lows.

I’m keeping an eye on $86.1K again as it’s a key weekly level but it’s likely we rip through it like tissue paper and continue toward the next fib pivot at $84.5K. If we get a Daily CLOSE there instead of a wick then another move down to $80K is not only more likely but basically inevitable short term.

Bitcoin has been struggling to stay NEAR let alone ABOVE the Daily SMA since literally October of last year. We are not in the part of the cycle where this is magically going to change - and any time ABOVE should be considered an anomaly not the rule. There’s always a possibility we get a rally off FOMC rate news but I just don’t see where the momentum would come from to get us not only to $100K but safely ABOVE it.

Logically speaking why would any investors buy Bitcoin over Gold or SPY right now with their active cash? Now money they don’t need tomorrow - sure it’s a great time to load up more Bitcoin - but if the trend continues then waiting is going to get you way more Satoshis. At the end of the day that’s all I care about with this brand and Newsletter is helping you acquire more Satoshis and right now that means patience.

I’ve spoken in several YouTube videos about how I believe that the Weekly SMA is going to keep getting pulled LOWER until it breaks BELOW the $96K fib pivot - meaning when price finally interacts with the SMA it’ll be BELOW $96K AND need to RETEST there as well to show STRENGTH. And while breaking BOTH would be an incredibly BULLISH signal - it’s not the most likely outcome.

What is far more likely is that Price will finally have a strong reaction to the SMA and then likely FAIL the $96K pivot once again if it’s anything like 2018 and 2022. There’s still some possibility of major STRENGTH at that level pushing us higher toward $100K and $106.8K but it’s not looking guaranteed.

I was really hoping for price to get another RETEST of $96K so it can push higher toward $106.8K but it’s looking like the psychological narrative around $100K may be the one the market makers want to hammer the most. This makes sense since I talked about it July of last year that I expected price would break BELOW it and stay below a while.

History is not kind to Bitcoin during this time of the cycle and with metals doing well that typically indicates weakness elsewhere like Crypto. If price does FAIL that $96K - whether before or after RECLAIMING the Weekly SMA - then it will push the price back toward $76.2K - and if it starts dropping that low then we can expect the downside to continue.

The Monthly chart is behaving exactly how I said it would since videos in December. In both 2018 and 2022 price spent about 3-4 months chopping along the Monthly SMA before fully giving it up to the downside. There are other charts that interact with the Monthly SMA more often - Bitcoin is not one of those charts. When it interacts with that level it’s very important.

It doesn’t really matter to me if it’s late February or early March but I would expect the top of this Relief Rally to be somewhere around there. We’ll know based on the interactions with $96K and the Weekly SMA once we’ve finally let go of the Monthly SMA that’s when prices will really begin to drop lower. If you think this is bad then wait till you see what happens when we break $78K.

I’m focused on reducing debt right now so I can buy more Bitcoin at the end of the year. I’m not focused on dollar cost averaging Bitcoin. In fact I haven’t bought any Bitcoin since probably December of 2024 and the April dip of 2025. It’s at acceptable levels to dollar cost average but if you’re strapped for cash then it’s better to be patient for the bottom.

With the momentum clearly favoring Stocks and Metals (and even Real Estate) right now I just don’t see things turning around for Bitcoin magically. I’ve seen loads of videos where people claim there’s going to be one more blow off top but I just don’t see that represented by REALITY or investor psychology. Why would you sell your winners to get more money into a perceived loser right now? Answer is you wouldn’t.

If you’re looking for an exit - it’s rapidly approaching. If you’re looking to maximize Bitcoin exposure this year - then be patient.