Right now on the 4H timeframe we are seeing the Bollinger Bands get very tight after multiple attempts to CONFIRM $57K as SUPPORT - which so far remains true with the recent LOW of $58K temporarily confirming for now. Despite this relative STRENGTH the price is still struggling to break back out ABOVE $61K at the moment leaving lots of room for doubt of a July LOWER HIGH as I’ve been talking about for weeks now. Even IF we were to see another breakdown BELOW $58K (I break this down more on YouTube) then it wouldn’t necessarily invalidate the LOWER HIGH theory unless we break significantly BELOW about $54K. But even then I would still expect a bounce HIGHER just considerably LOWER than we might have hoped for a July rally.

Price has tagged both Bollinger Bands in this compression zone so I would imagine some type of news story will drop soon that prompts it to break out of the range to one side or the other. Historically speaking this is still identical to 2018 and therefore that interpretation will continue to color my analysis until such a time that it is no longer useful to me. In 2026 our recent LOW was June 25th and in 2018 it was June 24th - so I’m not prepared to say the 4 year cycle is dead and quite to the contrary I think it’s more alive than ever before.

Despite prolonged WEAKNESS the past week, the price is holding STRONG ABOVE the $59.1K Fib Pivot on the 4H timeframe even with Wicks well BELOW it. This is basically putting a piece of gum in the crack of a dam and expecting it to hold all the water back for years. As I’m writing this the current 4H candle is seeking to close BELOW that pivot. However I am still of the opinion we see the same pattern as 2018 until such a time that it is invalidated and we won’t know that for 2 weeks.

Assuming instead that the price shows further WEAKNESS we would expect to see a breakdown BELOW $58K first testing $57K for SUPPORT and then breaking down to $54K if it is found insufficient. This is not impossible but again based on the 2018 correlations we would actually expect to see CONSOLIDATION rather than further downside for the next 2 weeks. To me this falls in alignment as well with the uncertainty around the Clarity Act being passed or not - despite being so certain last month.

When they vote to tokenize normal stocks on blockchains as well this will be a short term pump for most of Crypto that ends getting sold off because the reality is money flowing into tokenized stocks has nothing at all to do with Crypto itself doing well. It may affect the Layer 1 chains favorably but eventually I would expect all of that to sell off as well once Stocks themselves start to show significant WEAKNESS later this year. Prepare for the next 2 weeks to be VERY BORING for Bitcoin.

The Daily timeframe has been STRUGGLING since the most recent REJECTION at the Daily SMA. The levels I’m watching most closely in this range are $58.8K and $61.3K for the Monthly closing candles from 2021 as well as one key level from 2024 at $60.7K. Starting to get momentum ABOVE $60.7K is critically important for the Monthly close tomorrow but no matter how you slice it the June candle is going to be Red and July will likely start off Red as well. In 2018 the rally took about 2 weeks to really mature so I wouldn’t expect us to go any LOWER than about $57K (barring a BREAK to $54K) and no higher than $64K.

Like I talk about on YouTube, we have OVERWHELMING evidence of BEARISH pressure right now - which to me is why I’m so focused on the upside. I see many other large Crypto channels saying we’re about to head lower (I didn’t watch the videos but I understand WHY they’re saying it). We can stay disconnected from the Daily SMA for a long time so there’s nothing really preventing the chart from looking really BEARISH for the next 2 weeks or so.

I have not seen anything on the chart yet that makes me believe we’re going to start breaking down further. We saw STRENGTH ABOVE $57K with the Wick to $58K - no one else will interpret it that way but I do. Even a break to $54K doesn’t invalidate anything for me about my belief in a July LOWER HIGH. What would invalidate that is significant WEAKNESS BELOW $54K. But either way I think July forms a LOWER HIGH it’s just a matter of how LOW it really is.

Like I talked about in all the most recent Subscriber only email updates, I closed my Short and went Long. So that should speak to my sentiment more than anything since it’s the actual risk I’m taking rather than just whatever I’m saying. The Daily looks ugly, I have no reason to believe purely based on the local technicals alone that we will see a REVERSAL - and yet that is exactly what I’m positioned for. I’m prepared to be wrong about this but I guess being up about 370% since March on these calls has me a bit confident in just allowing the chart to do the work for me.

I know I keep saying it but I don’t think a touch of $54K now invalidates anything. I don’t think it means we immediately drop LOWER - to me it is perfectly reasonable based on the shape of the chart. And the opposite again is that we start to see STRENGTH and my trade is correct. I have to act under the belief that is the case based upon my Analysis. I will be looking over the next 2 weeks for all signs of INVALIDATION for that. And just a reminder that I am uploading Daily YouTube updates now.

What the Weekly close told us is that we are ABOVE the first ATH of 2021 but BELOW the 2nd one. So psychologically speaking we haven’t yet CONFIRMED that either side of the range is SUPPORT or RESISTANCE and I expect will continue to chop between $59K and $61K for a while until enough volume is able to tip the chart in favor one direction or the other. My bias is towards the upside but as I side it may take a full 2 weeks for us to get out of this consolidation and I wouldn’t really expect anything higher than $64K until then. At that time it’s just as likely for another REJECTION of $64K before finally ACCEPTING it as SUPPORT and making that July LOWER HIGH push.

The Weekly SMA continues to get dragged down which if anything makes it EASIER for a RETEST to occur as opposed to it flattening or extending upward. Currently the price is 1) BELOW the Weekly SMA 2) BELOW the $67.5K point of control 3) BELOW the bottom band of the Downtrend AVWAP 4) BELOW the $64K Fib Pivot AND 5) has now had an interaction with bottom Bollinger band. OVERWHELMINGLY BEARISH evidence - there is no upside at all there. Which is again exactly why I believe we’re about to see some - there’s nothing else to see for Bearish signals other than setting new Lows and we just did that too.

I am really placing a LOT of Faith on the 2018 chart right now because like I just stated above - every signal factor on the chart is saying LOWER. But statistically speaking each Bear Market sees 3-4 Green Monthly candles and July is one of the highest probability candidates for one. Anyone loaded for the downside into Q4 will most likely be rewarded but I am convinced there will be another opportunity to Short from much higher and I plan to ride that momentum before flipping the trade.

Now it’s basically just a waiting game until we can get CONFIRMATION at the key levels between $59K and $61K. Psychologically the market is TESTING for how important old levels are - again a confluence of the 2021 ATH buyers and the 2024 late ETF buyers. This creates a very mixed psychology since many are older buyers who have now seen multiple cycles and others have it managed by someone else in their retirement accounts - so one cohort is actively educating themselves (or completely out of the game) and the other doesn’t have enough interest to question whether they should be buying more now or simply doing nothing at all.

June is going close Bearish, we’ve known that for a while now. This is not a surprise and therefore shouldn’t be treated as out of the ordinary. As I just explained typically only 3-4 months are Bullish in a Bear Market year and we’ve already seen 2 of them - so the majority of the remaining months are Red. I’m going to continue using 2018 until it breaks and it’s hard for me to believe that July is also going to be Red when June closes BELOW $64K. The first thing July is going to want CONFIRMATION of is whether or not we can break back ABOVE that level. Sure a close BELOW $60K may force more downside pressure early on in the month but the likelihood of a close in July LOWER than the close in June is not the most probable outcome in my opinion.

When you factor in the politicians making a “sincere” effort to push forward the Clarity Act before the end of July that sets up the perfect opportunity for a rally into the News and a sell off after the story is completed. Whether it FAILS or gets ACCEPTED I believe the result will be the same for the price - it will end up selling off after because the real money doesn’t flow into the Stablecoins until closer to the end of year. JP Morgan Chase still needs to announce their partnerships and send out little brochures in the mail that you’ll throw out. Once we start seeing those companies majorly pushing the Stablecoins then liquidity will arrive again for Crypto but anything between now and then is just another smokescreen to catch impatient investors off guard and separate them from their hard earned Satoshis. Except for subscribes here of course.

I am primarily focused on expanding my knowledge set around Trading at this stage of the cycle. I have not started DCAing into Bitcoin again. HOWEVER, if I were someone with NO DEBT and plenty of extra income there is certainly nothing wrong with DCAing here - and anywhere else BELOW both the Weekly and Monthly SMAs. I am waiting for Q4 like everyone else is - and I’ll either be wrong or I’ll get low cost Satoshis. This is why I mostly hold on to my stack overtime rather than trying to time the tops or bottoms - you’ll never be perfect but as long as you’re still holding you will maintain exposure to the broader trend - UP.

You either believe in Bitcoin or you don’t and months like these are where that CONVICTION gets tested. Right now both 2021 TOP BUYERS and 2024 ETF BUYERS are having to really ask themselves hard questions about whether or not to stay in Bitcoin - and that’s assuming they’re even paying attention at all - and most people are not doing so. They’re more focused on SpaceX and the Stock market and that’s where you will succeed by not giving up on Bitcoin when it’s boring. This is the time.

You’re either preparing for SUCCESS or you’ll complain about missing the bottom for another cycle. The difference is FOCUS.