Price has been ABOVE the 4H for most of last week and we’ve just this morning seen a rather violent drop BELOW it (also breaking the Bottom Bollinger Band) that quickly got bought up. Structurally chart looks fine here as long as we don’t continue to get REJECTED by the $64K Fib Pivot. Bollinger Bands are contracting so expect more Volatility within the next day or so. Price also did break BELOW the $61.7K Fib Pivot on this recent drop but the body of the candle is RECLAIMED at $62.4K also affirming that $62K is SUPPORT as well.

Over the course of the next few days I would expect the $61K region continues to get TESTED if volume cannot resume to the upside at $64K. The midpoint of the cycle is at $63.1K (Half of $126.2K) and price seems to be holding well there. I’ll break it down more in today’s video but as far as I can see we’re still retracing 2018 almost identically and therefore I assume our actual REJECTION point will be AFTER we BREAK ABOVE the Point of Control at $67.5K (probably a run up closer to $78K but who’s counting?) Currently I have no reason to believe anything has changed from this point of the chart I’ve been repeating.

I am Long until the end of July. So all I’m really thinking about is the key levels I bring up here and on YouTube every day and there’s not that many of them. How the price behaves at each of those levels CONFIRMS for me whether we are still retracing 2018 or not and that therefore determines for me how CONFIDENT I can be in my Perpetual trades. I will say I did not expect my win rate to be as high as it is but I’m going to continue to use this as the basis for my Analysis until it eventually breaks.

These contracts really have made me think very differently about where I should allocating capital in general. This is of course a Bitcoin focused mission and therefore it will always make sense to save in Bitcoin and to accumulate it during times on the chart where it is clear to do so. But having more exposure to leveraged Bitcoin during periods of Volatility actually reduces your need for holding or trading other assets. In my experience with several years of trading I have not found something more consistent than what I do now - which is analyze the Bitcoin chart and apply that knowledge to the NanoBTC Perpetual contracts I buy.

I tried doing this with IBIT Options. It did not work. I have made plenty of money with Altcoins - but definitely lost even more due to ignorance. I have literally been early or WRONG about Perpetuals entries and was still able to close that trade over 140% in profit. For me, this is the only focus now. Putting as much capital as possible toward purchasing more Contracts based on the careful Analysis I share with you every day. And of course YOLOing as much Spot Bitcoin as possible at the end of the cycle (which I explain in way more detail in this Playbook here).

The Daily timeframe will often spend WEEKS ABOVE or BELOW the Daily SMA without a major interaction. We’ve now seen a clean BREAK ABOVE that the price is continuing to hold as the Daily SMA itself remains sloping downward. While I don’t care much about Daily Pivot Points, price is currently holding ABOVE $63.5K with yesterday’s close being $63.6K. So both on the candle sense and the indicator sense we are seeing STRENGTH form in this range.

Price looks determined now to RECLAIM the Bottom Band of the Downtrend AVWAP currently sitting at about $65.1K. This of course would be predicated upon continued STRENGTH ABOVE $64K instead of a prolonged pullback here. I will break this down more on YouTube because it’s easier to explain there but essentially we would expect to see a rise ABOVE $67.5K this week that ultimately results in another FAILURE down toward $61K. Though since we’ve already just seen that this morning I am not yet sure if there will be WEAKNESS at $67.5K if we’re already showing enough on the way to $64K.

Either way I have no reason to believe my July targets are off the table yet. $73.8K is the highest I can really believe we hit in the month of July with a possible wick to $76.3K but I’m more confident of $73.8K as time goes on. This would not be until the very last week of July if the 2018 cycle repeat holds.

The Daily SMA is very independent, price can stay disconnected for long periods of time and it’s not going to deter whatever the stronger trend is. Right now that’s BULLISH despite whatever other channels may be telling you. I say this a lot in videos but every major creator was convinced at $57.7K we were going LOWER and I was being pretty clear that for the moment that momentum is done with. July is HIGHER. NOT NEW HIGHS, but HIGHER than the close of June. It’s always funny to me when I get mean comments about my belief that July forms a LOWER HIGH since again the sole requirement for this is being ABOVE $58.6K.

An interaction with the Bottom Band of the Downtrend AVWAP will be important information but I really feel like it’s $64K and $67.5K that are actually important in this range and everything else is just noise. How the price behaves at those two prices determines whether we’re on track for the 2018 cycle or whether we’re seeing a divergence to something new. I fully expect the pattern to break at some point this year - just not in July.

The wick of the Week thus far was just BELOW $61.3K which is that top blue horizontal line I’ve been talking about recently on YouTube indicating the Monthly closing candle levels in late 2021. Price holding firm ABOVE that level is an inherently BULLISH signal when combined with the other factors I’ve mentioned related to SMA RETESTS and RECLAIMS of the AVWAP bands. But just the same as the lower timeframes all that really matters first is how the price REACTS to $64K and currently it has been REJECTED at $63.9K twice and today’s flash crash could slow down how quickly another RETEST is available. As I said I will break this down in more detail today in the YouTube video.

We’re actually seeing $65.1K line up for both the Daily and Weekly Bottom Band of the Downtrend AVWAP which makes an interaction there have slightly more weight than just having it on one timeframe. But that’s really just a magnetive catapult that’s going to accelerate the price toward either $64K or $67.5K depending on the STRENGTH of this July rally amidst the noise. They really want to push this Clarity Act to the forefront of the media and regardless of the outcome I am still expecting a Weekly SMA RETEST and REJECTION which we’ll talk more in next week’s Newsletter (and probably the week after).

The Weekly has the 2nd easiest job right now (Monthly has the easiest). All it needs to do is start gobbling up the BEARISH signals that brought the price down past $58K in the first place. It’s RECLAIMED those 2021 and 2024 levels I’ve broken down on YouTube and now it needs CONFIRMATION of $64K before moving on to the next targets. Once STRENGTH is CONFIRMED at the Bottom Band of the AVWAP as well it will give price enough CONFIDENCE to RECLAIM $67.5K. At which point I do still expect a pullback but those are the only targets relevant for now.

The only thing that would invalidate this is SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS shown at the $61K level necessitating another $59K RETEST. Obviously that would change the shape of the price progression and call into question the 2018 model. However, I still believe we hold FIRM at $64K and make our way to $67.5K again at which it makes rich people more money if normal people PANIC there - even if we still go much higher after whatever initial spike we see back down toward the $61K level. Overall the chart looks pretty healthy on the Weekly so I stay Long.

Close ABOVE $58.6K. That’s it. That’s the Monthly Analysis. As long as we have that - July has fulfilled it’s oath and can retain honor in the Halls of Valhalla. YouTube Subscribers know what I’m talking about here - we expect to see between 3 and 4 Green Monthly candles in a Bear Market and we’ve already seen 2. It is my firm belief that July is that next Green candle so now it’s just a matter of managing Risk associated with that price progression OR simply doing nothing and waiting to DCA more heavily toward end of the year. Neither strategy is wrong by the way (just one makes a lot more money).

I fully expect July to sell off REALLY HARD at the end of the month and I plan to Short it then. I will most likely keep that Short open for the rest of the year. And my job from August to September will just be manage or accumulate more Contracts to the downside in anticipation of that final Q4 bottom. This of course is quite risky since everyone expects that - but until I see that divergence from the 2018 chart I have to assume it’s going to behave in a very similar way. Which means we chop around $60K likely deep into September. I will obviously continue to break this down as we get closer to that month.

It’s pretty much the same story on the Monthly with everywhere else in terms of key targets - only difference being the Bottom Band of the Downtrend AVWAP is SLIGHTLY HIGHER at $65.3K but that’s marginal. I’m just seeing this now but it looks like the Point of Control is slightly LOWER on the Monthly timeframe at $66.9K which obviously puts even more downside pressure on the $67.5K target the longer it takes to RECLAIM and stay ABOVE it. Other than that same story - must RECLAIM $64K and make it’s way back to the midpoint of the range at $70.3K.

Assuming it can maintain STRENGTH at $70.3K that gives the price PERMISSION to attempt toward the HIGHER end of the range at $76.3K. I do not believe that it will get to $76.3K and by using the September LOWER HIGH from 2018 I can infer that the price will FAIL closer to $74K. And what’s right around $74K? Our beloved $73.8K level that I never shut up about. To me this is the most psychological important level in this region and it will not be strange when price sells off after REJECTION.

Trading is complicated enough as it is. Why would you make it more complicated by focusing on more than one chart - when this one chart provides you opportunities that you can copy and paste?