Right now the 4H timeframe is starting to show WEAKNESS after the long battle with $64K for SUPPORT. All that really matters is whether or not it shows STRENGTH at $61K as SUPPORT. If it does NOT then it will invalidate the 2018 analysis I’ve been breaking down in every YouTube video. However, as I say in those videos, $60.7K will be the true deciding factor there. That being the key level of SUPPORT from the 2024 chop - more on that in every video as well.

That means we would expect to see DOWNSIDE pressure going into the beginning of the week - alongside the new drama around the Strait of Hormuz. You already know if you’re reading this email that I do not care about the news but that is what they will tell you is causing this downside pressure. In reality we saw this same downside momentum from about July 9th to the 15th back in 2018 and I’ve been calling out that same movement for days.

I opened up a Futures Short when I started to see the volatility around $64K close to the Weekly close. I probably should have opened it earlier than I did but I am just protecting my position to the downside without closing my Perp Long just yet. If I’m wrong, then I’m wrong but I am still convinced we see the momentum return after around July 15th and I don’t care whether it’s the Clarity Act or some other news that does it.

We’ve now seen multiple FAILURES attempting to break ABOVE the Bottom Band of the Downtrend AVWAP which is not encouraging but alongside price based CAPITULATION this is not really that strange. In 2018 we saw a move to ABOVE $6800 which is why I was so focused on a rise ABOVE $67.5K at the Point of Control but it doesn’t seem the price has enough momentum to carry it past those key volume points yet.

Now that price is BELOW the 4H SMA the only thing that can change that momentum is going to be ACCEPTANCE at the Daily SMA that results in a snap back toward the $63.5K Fibonacci Pivot. The longer we stay BELOW that pivot point the more likely price is to keep RETESTING $61K or LOWER. We do not want to see LOWER than about $60.7K now.

If the Daily SMA can hold STRONG - then price will RECOVER. It is currently sitting at $61.8K and while breaking BELOW it is not out of character for this stage of the cycle - we really want to see a wick no LOWER than $60.7K if the general trend of LOWS from 2018 is to hold true. I break this down more in the YouTube videos why we’re seeing LOWER HIGHS but equivalent LOWS lately.

I guess they’re doing a meeting about the Clarity Act on Friday? I don’t care. But that’s the 17th and in 2018 we were already on our way to RECOVERY then so that’s what I will be looking for - STRENGTH ABOVE the $64K Fib Pivot. But again do not be surprised if we see the price tank more the next few days as it makes another attempt to get CONFIRMATION of $61K as clean SUPPORT.

So don’t PANIC if the price does end up breaking BELOW the Daily SMA this week. Just be prepared for it to be very volatile before the news settles. Any WEAKNESS at the $61K level should be closely watched but $62K will break.

I’m mostly focused on whether or not the 2018 correlations continue to hold true because there’s only a few more good setups this year for Perps. That being now until the very peak of July that I’ve estimated between $70K and $74K and then the Short on the other end of that. I fully expect most of August and September to just be chop and I’ll likely be trading Futures contracts while leaving my Perp Short open until Q4.

The only real divergence from 2018 so far is that we didn’t get a rise to $68K as I anticipated but again this is within the reality of the price based capitulation we’ve been seeing with upside targets - we just don’t get them. I explain it in every YouTube video but I fully expect the price targets for July to be closer to the September targets of 2018 while the LOWS remain CONSISTENT. Until that pattern breaks I’m going to use it.

The Week is starting off BEARISH and I expect it will be for the majority of the Week. Price is going to want CONFIRMATION of $61K SUPPORT since we’re so close to it now and until that has occurred I don’t think we see another $64K RETEST. I would assume Friday is going to be fairly volatile and then I expect more volatility on Sunday around the Weekly close but we’ll just have to see.

Psychologically speaking we’re just REVOLVING around the midpoint at $63.1K and we will continue to do so for the majority of this year and probably deep into next year if we see 2019 produce the same pattern that 2018 has been. I’m not prepared to assume that just yet since we still need to see where and when the 2018 correlation really breaks down and this week may be the time.

I have no reason to believe we see NEW LOWS in July, especially since we saw that fulfilled on July 1st and now would assume UPSIDE momentum. We will eventually plod our way back to the Weekly SMA, at which time we will REJECT it again like we always do in a Bear Market. There’s not really much else to say on that, we just don’t have any evidence to the contrary and until we do that’s what I’m going by.

Same as all the other timeframes, we really want STRENGTH ABOVE $60.7K and I would assume that’s a wick not a full body candle close. If we got a Weekly candle close around that level then my CONFIDENCE in a July LOWER HIGH would be a bit shaken and I’d just have to write off the trades for this month unfortunately, you can’t win them all. But at the moment, they can share whatever news they want to - I’m watching $61K.

The Monthly is still very simple. Close ABOVE $58.6K. That’s it. That’s all July has to do in order to fulfill it’s duty to the chart. We would need to see a CATASTROPHIC structural REJECTION at $61K to potentially invalidate this but I don’t see that being the most likely outcome. Like I say in every YouTube video, July is mostly about RECLAIMING all the Bearish signals of June. 1) $64K Fib Pivot 2) Bottom Band of the Downtrend AVWAP 3) the Point of Control and 4) the Weekly SMA. Once we have flipped BULLISH on all those signals again - I think we lose them very quickly, and that will be hard emotionally for many.

Not for anyone subscribed here or on YouTube, but for everyone else it will be. There’s only so much chop inexperienced investors and traders can take before they get shaken out or run out of money and I believe that’s why there’s such a push for betting markets like Polymarket and Kalshi - the powers that be want the common people to have ZERO dry powder for the Q4 bottom. It’s like watching an asteroid head toward Earth and having no means to prevent it - it’s going to be happen we just don’t know what causes it yet.

I’m just focused on increasing my income and reducing my debt so I can leverage as heavy as possible at the absolute bottom. I don’t care if that’s $44K or $34K but it will be fairly obvious on the chart when it happens and all you need to do is be prepared. I think the volatility next year is going to be explosive so we just need to be positioned for it. Most of the rest of 2026 is going to be very boring and it’ll be on you to stay focused while the markets try to keep you distracted and hopeless.

It is very normal for June and July to have an inverse correlation and we’re still seeing that hold true at the moment so no need to panic just because we’re seeing a RETEST of $62K and $61K - especially since I’ve been talking about that for several YouTube videos now. We just need to be patient and the chart will reward us for being excellent students.

You can only trade the chart in front of you - we don’t get to decide how it behaves, we just adjust our risk accordingly to reality as it is.