For most of last week we chopped around the Bottom Band of the Downtrend AVWAP across timeframes and it’s never more clear than on the 4H timeframe. Price is showing a similar pattern to the recent REJECTION at $65.5K however price did just break ABOVE that level briefly and like I’ve been saying in the past few YouTube videos I have every reason to believe we’re just dragging out the momentum on our way to $67.4K before a pullback and final rise to $70K. This being held up largely by concurrent STRENGTH with the Fib Pivots like $64.5K ($63.5K on the Daily) and even $64K now is showing up both on higher timeframes as well as the 4H - making it even more critical SUPPORT.

That means if we do see my theoretical rise to about $68K we would want to see STRENGTH at around $66K as SUPPORT on that theoretical pullback. If price needs to break much LOWER than about $65.5K during that pullback then it either extends or invalidates our final move up to $70K before the July HIGH is in and we need to accept we’re back on the next leg of the trade. For anyone not following the YouTube videos - that means we’ll be going Short.

Most of the targets I’ve been calling out in Daily YouTube videos have been hit and I currently have no reason to believe the 2018 correlation is going to break any time soon (probably Q4 if I had to guess). This means I’m just looking for a series of HIGHER HIGHS until such a time that significant RESISTANCE is found and that’s probably the Weekly SMA. We already know $73.8K would be the highest structural level we’d expect to see here - meaning the price will likely fail BEFORE hitting it.

The Bottom Band of the Downtrend AVWAP has now broken BELOW the $64.5K Fib Pivot and it’s about to cross under the 4H SMA itself - this should lead to an upswell in the price after some initial volatility. I personally think we have until about July 25th-27th before that momentum shifts and we start to see a massive move to the downside.

I believe they just missed a deadline for voting on the Genius Act as well. I don’t really care about news narratives - but these types of signals usually start popping up before WEAKNESS arrives at key structural levels and I have heard other channels call out $70K so I’m not the only one paying attention to that level. Everything looks primed for that initial rise to $67.4K and the Point of Control so we just need to be patient.

The Daily SMA has been very NEEDY lately with multiple RETESTS of candle Wicks that have continued to produce candles well ABOVE the Daily SMA. Meaning we have a good deal of STRENGTH despite plenty of CHOP here. I go over this in the YouTube videos very often about how we’re seeing a bit of a different story on the Daily timeframe correlation to 2018 than the Weekly shows however for the most part the structure of the chart is very similar.

The Daily SMA is on the rise and is about to break ABOVE the $63.5K Fib Pivot which would be another signal of SUPPORT for the $64K level if price cannot meaningfully return to this Fib Pivot (until the end of the month or August). Just like the Weekly timeframe we are starting to see some COMPRESSION on the Daily Bollinger Bands so expect some volatility to arrive soon. As I’ve discussed on YouTube at length I think that’ll be a rise to $67.4K followed by a pullback toward $66K - we’ll just have to wait and see how it all turns out.

On the way to $67.4K we’ve got $66.3K being a previous Daily candle close level on the previous attempts to break ABOVE $67.4K so those will both be important on the way up as well as on the way back down during the pullback.

I’m already in my Long position for like 3 weeks at this point. I probably could have added more cash to the position but in general I’m very happy with how Swing/Trend trading is going with these Coinbase NanoBTC Perpetual Futures trades I’ve been taking. I think it does benefit someone who’s willing to be very dedicated to one chart more than someone just looking for profits. I KNOW I will make profits - I just need to manage my own expectations of how much and act accordingly. So for me now I either add more money to the position or do nothing.

When we get closer to $70K I will need to close the position and then open my Short. So all I really need to see happen between now and then is confirmed STRENGTH at $68K after the initial pullback while allowing for the possibility the final move may extend into the beginning of August if the July candle really wants to have a dramatic finish to it.

I have been talking about $64.7K more in the YouTube videos than I have in the Newsletter (plenty of Daily emails as well) but seeing the Week rise all the way to that for the close was EXACTLY what we wanted to see for the trend. Now we just have to acknowledge the REALITY that there’s not much time left in the month of July - we may not even have that pullback if we stay true to that July 25th-27th expectation that I have of the final highs for the month. This means it is NOT the time to be looking at other charts - just Bitcoin.

As I’ve said in every recent YouTube video - our key targets are $64K and $64.7K initially before making our way to the Point of Control at $67.4K. These are 3 of the primary signals we saw in June that CONFIRMED we would see NEW LOWS and now we are just seeing them repeated in hopes of SUPPORT. We will not receive that SUPPORT and we’ll be giving them back up shortly - but that’s what the market itself is psychologically experiencing during this.

We’ve got 2 weeks left in July - 11 days. My baseline expectation for those 11 days is a spike to $68K sometime this week - then a pullback to $66K. Once SUPPORT has been CONFIRMED ABOVE $65.5K the price will then have permission to make another attempt at $67.4K - at which time I would expect our Weekly close to hover around that level the same way we hovered around $64.7K this Week before the Close. I don’t think we see $70K this week but it probably happens very quickly next week before selling off hard into the end of the month those final days.

It looks just like 2018 guys. It’s only me and Ben Cowen talking about it for some reason but that’s the reality. We’ve got a bit more STRENGTH on the Daily timeframe than in 2018 - just meaning less volatility and more steadiness. But that just means our final peak may be a few days later than it was in 2018 - or it’ll be almost the exact day again like it was in February, May and June. I am currently assuming that is the case.

At this point I think we can all agree I was correct about a LOWER HIGH in July and now the only question really is HOW HIGH and where does it CLOSE July? And those are two very different answers in my opinion. I think the HIGH is going to be between $70K and $74K as I’ve said many times - but I think the close of the month is actually going to be a lot closer to $64K than $70K. The selloff in 2018 was pretty violent and I would expect the same thing this time. Especially if they miss the window to pass the Clarity Act before the August recess I think that’ll just compound the narrative of downside momentum. I DON’T REALLY CARE BECAUSE I’VE CALLED OUT THIS MOVE FOR WEEKS. But that’s what people are going to point to as the reason this move flips around.

Some cycles are more similar than others and until we see a major divergence on the chart I’m just going to keep using 2018 as the basis for my analysis. Which means I expect us to start dropping right after $70K and head toward $60K in a hurry right at the beginning of August - have your Shorts ready. All we really have to do between now and then is pay attention to $66K, $68K and $70K for the most part. Everything else is just being a bit more picky with it.

As a trend trader I want to maximize my exposure to the trend for as long as the trade will allow before promptly flipping to the other trend as soon as it becomes obvious to do so. That means I will wait as long as I have to for CONFIRMATION of that trend change around $70K before closing my Long and entering my Short. I’m pretty happy with the profits I’m already in on this position (about 61% in profit at the moment) but I am prepared to wait for the rest of the move before closing it. This is where I personally am trying to refine my Futures strategy. Because I don’t really lose any money on the Perpetuals with my current strategy.

I could very easily just continue to dump money into that strategy and collect my 50-100% profits per month and do NOTHING ELSE. But part of me really wants to refine my Scalp trading edge as well as my Trend trading so that’s part of why I continue to write these Emails and record these YouTube videos - I want to know this stuff like the back of my hand. And if I can explain it to you then I can explain it to everyone. I do genuinely hope these emails have been helpful for you and your trading.

Once you’ve found a winning strategy - what is preventing you from going all in on that strategy? What allows you to make the shift?