Right now on the 4H timeframe it doesn’t look that bad. We have set a series of HIGHER HIGHS and formed SUPPORT at HIGHER LOWS - and yet it may have run out of room to run to the upside. Last Tuesday price REJECTED $66.9K at the Point of Control (more on YouTube) and has now been REJECTED multiple times off $65.7K as well. This does not paint a BULLISH picture for us despite that positive momentum that has carried us into the start of the week.

As I’m writing the price is RETESTING the 4H SMA to the downside and there’s very little preventing it from RETESTING the Bottom Band of the Downtrend AVWAP at $64.3K - at which time we will see plainly whether it can regain momentum to the upside or if the major drop has already begun. That REJECTION off the Point of Control is NOT a good sign - and it will likely invaldiate any move that I’ve been talking about to $70K unfortunately. If ANY Bullish pressure is to resume I would assume that it comes today or tomorrow.

I probably should have closed my Long trade on Tuesday. It is reasonable to already be positioned Short. We are seeing COMPRESSION on the 4H Bollinger Bands at the moment which means it’s just as likely we get one final spike to the upside as we do a sincere push down. But it is looking like $66.9K is the HIGHEST we are going to go and downside pressure should resume shortly - if the 2018 correlation holds true.

I talk about that every day on YouTube lately but essentially the peak in July was the 24th in 2018 and today and tomorrow are really the last hope for a RETEST of those levels before accepting that we are heading LOWER. I am not currently paying attention to the Clarity Act updates - I don’t care about the narratives just the levels - and the levels are ugly.

Either way I would expect a decent amount of volatility today so just be prepared to close any Longs and be patient for Shorts to pay off.

The price has been stuck to the Daily SMA like glue lately and I talk about it on YouTube as an indication that the market is HEALTHIER but more BORING. Meaning we see equivalent pushes to the DOWNSIDE and WEAKER pushes to the UPSIDE. It just takes longer to get the same amount of momentum that we used to take for granted in previous cycles. Nothing structurally has invalidated the 2018 correlation yet but we would expect a significant REJECTION of the Daily SMA any day now and that will cause price COLLAPSE.

The Daily SMA is currently sitting at about $64.4K so if by some miracle it’s able to hold on to that despite downside pressure today then we may get another RETEST of $65.5K but the more times we get REJECTED there the less likely we are to see anything HIGHER. If you were just looking at the local price action it actually doesn’t look terrible - but this is why we use historical analysis. It was in a very similar circumstance in 2018 and still fell off a cliff.

In June/July of 2018, the Winklevoss twins made a push for the first Bitcoin ETF and on July 26th it was REJECTED by the SEC which is one of the factors that caused the selloff during that time - for me the Clarity Act is the equivalent narrative character at the moment. They would have passed it by now if it were actually going to pass - and they will eventually even if it doesn’t right now. This is why we focus on the levels - they don’t change and the news always will.

I suppose there is a possibility that Clarity gets passed and we get a last little hurrah for Bitcoin into the end of July and early August (I’ve talked about that as a possibility on YouTube) - but it’s not my base case now. Even IF Clarity gets passed - the actual liquidity from that news does not enter the market in a meaningful way until January at the earliest. Meaning any BULLISH momentum would run out of steam fairly soon.

Other than that our best case scenario is consecutive closes ABOVE the Daily SMA but eventually that trend WILL BREAK after enough REJECTIONS at the key levels ABOVE it. All those BEARISH signals that we retraced from June are now going to be RETESTED as BEARISH instead of BULLISH signals and that’s going to look like a swift return back to $60K. I don’t think it goes much LOWER than about $58K in August if the 2018 correlation holds true but obviously I’ll be covering that as we get closer.

Something I’ve been covering on YouTube is the inverse correlation to Weekly SMA RETESTS in 2018 vs now. While in 2018 we were REJECTED without a RETEST - in 2026 that was our second longest period of time ABOVE the Weekly SMA ever in a Bear Market. What this means to me is that we will not be RETESTING the Weekly SMA during July - I should have caught that earlier but it’s a big reason why $70K is still off the table for now (and the rest of 2026). There is nothing structurally holding up the price once we lose $64K and we will very quickly RETEST the LOWS and seek STRENGTH there.

I’ll be discussing this more in August but all that we really have BELOW $64K is our Monthly closing candles from the 2021 Peaks AND the SUPPORT levels from the dip back in 2024. This produces two very distinctly different cohorts of investors. One group has now been through many cycles and understands the accumulation game - and the other is now being faced with the reality that their position may go underwater very soon. How those individuals decide to act (or not act) will ultimately dictate how violent this next major move is.

I see no reason why the 2018 correlation will break yet. It is my opinion it will hold true until about October and then I would expect a more significant divergence. We can expect a more likely Weekly SMA RETEST toward the end of August and early September however it will have been pulled down quite a bit by then - by my estimation it will interact with the price again around $64K. Which you already know is quite important.

Broadly speaking I expect the price is now rangebound between $67K and $57K for the foreseeable future - likely until that divergence in October. This means generally speaking we want to start focusing more on Scalps rather than Swing trades - which I go over in more detail in my Membership the 4H Break Room. I wouldn’t expect many more significant moves this year until we see that downside momentum into October so we need to be calculated about which trades we do chase.

I’ve been talking about LOWER HIGHS in July since late May/early June so it’s been no surprise for me to see it despite all the other channels convincing you of LOWER LOWS. So functionally speaking, July did it’s job already. The guarantee wasn’t $70K - it was a LOWER HIGH. And anything ABOVE $58.6K IS technically speaking a LOWER HIGH compared to the June close. This creates the inverse opportunity for August since all August needs to do to be BEARISH is close LOWER than wherever July ends up closing. Which for me is likely around $64K. Again I believe that primarily because I think it’s where we get REJECTED in that last push in August/September but it’ll be very close.

Technically speaking we have seen some minor divergences that would allow for August to close BULLISH however I think that’s largely going to be decided by where July itself actually closes and I wouldn’t expect August to retain BULLISHNESS even if it does present it after the initial drop. Which if the 2018 correlation holds true then the first two weeks of August will be a bloodbath.

I am probably closing my Long trade today. I have already debated doing so several times while writing this email and will likely continue debating while I record today’s YouTube video. My favorite part about these Perpetual contracts is how flexible you can be with opening and closing positions based on the overall trend. If you’re patient enough you can get profits out of a trade you would have lost money on in any other asset class. The cost is more often opportunity cost than losses.

I still believe the absolute LOWS are ahead of us - I just don’t think that we’re going to see them in August or September. I think the next 2 months are going to be very painful and BORING - and true Bitcoiners know that is the BEST time to be doubling down on your strategy. This is not the time to get distracted and start chasing other gains. You need to make sure you are prepared for this Bitcoin swing or you’ll be talking about missing it for the next 4 years. It’s time to lock in my friends.

If you can reliably predict ONE chart without losing money - WHY are you so focused on taking RISKS with charts you can’t predict?