Last Tuesday Bitcoin FAILED $78K as SUPPORT as I mentioned in last week’s Newsletter and this prompted the price to continue falling thru key levels like the ones I mentioned ABOVE. By Thursday that momentum had forced the Bollinger Bands to COMPRESS and we are now seeing EXPANSION on the other end of that price movement. One quick RETEST of $74.2K resulted in the downside pressure we are now seeing as you are reading this Newsletter. There are a few logical places the price will now head for CONFIRMATION.

The first level being about $70.3K - I talk about this one all the time on YouTube. It’s the center of the range between $64K and $76.3K and to be indicates whether price is more likely to RETEST either the top or bottom of the range - meaning a break BELOW would put pressure toward a $64K RETEST. After that, $69K is obviously an important level being the 2nd 2021 ATH so that’s one of the last places we could expect to see some SUPPORT but again anything BELOW $70.3K does put pressure toward $64K and therefore $69K may not be psychologically empowering enough to keep price elevated.

If you’ve been reading this Newsletter or watching my YouTube videos for any period of time you know how important I believe the AVWAP tool is on TradingView. We are about to see an interaction with the bottom band of the $126K Downtrend AVWAP at $68.4K. This REACTION will again give us indication if we just keep dropping toward $64K or if we have a prolonged period of CONSOLIDATION around the $70K level before we inevitably RETEST LOWER. To me these levels are magnetically charged and therefore price will be drawn to them regardless of news.

It is worth noting that $67.5K is showing as the Point of Control for the Anchored Volume Profile on the 4H timeframe, meaning that’s where the MOST volume has been traded (at least since I set the tool last year). That means will most likely DEFEND that level meaning the drop to $64K won’t be immediate. I would imagine we see some chop around $70K that starts to slow by around $68K and it’s not unreasonable that we can bounce back as HIGH as $73.8K (another of my favorite levels) before this downside momentum carries into the rest of the month of June.

Remember that the May HIGHS were hit very early in the month and it mostly CONSOLIDATED after that point. So it could be the June LOWS come very quickly, or we could consolidate for most of the month and drop after losing one of these key levels. Either way I’m exposured to Short positions and open to adding more when the chart tells me to.

The Daily timeframe is always interesting because it can spend such a long period of time disconnected from the SMA. That’s why I like the 4H it’s more volatile and easy to predict, whereas just because Bitcoin is BELOW the Daily SMA does not mean it’s about to flip ABOVE it any time soon. We can spend weeks or months BELOW it in a Bear Market year and that appears to be the case at the moment as well. I would not expect that to change until late June.

The levels are fairly similar, all of the ABOVE mentioned ones are still at play but two important Daily Fib Pivots are $72.3K and $69.8K but I’ve got to be honest I don’t think these levels are going to form SUPPORT I think they’re just going to be speed bumps on the descent toward $68K. The bottom band of the Downtrend AVWAP on the Daily timeframe is at an equivalent level to the 4H one, around $68.4K, so we should expect some time of REACTION to that level. I would imagine we lose it initially and then have some sort of bounce back up to it before full CAPITULATION LOWER. But there’s nothing really preventing the price from just going sideways even after major DROPS.

The most important thing to remember is we’ve broken the Uptrend from $59.9K and that is going to put pressure to the downside unless we break back ABOVE it. That level now would be about $73.1K but that’ll continue to rise and therefore be harder and harder to reclaim the further we get away from it.

I’ve been saying this on YouTube for months but I have every reason to believe we will see price drop in June toward $64K and possibly $60K. I do not believe we will see much LOWER than that. I do believe we see a HIGHER LOW form in July - and I think that level is $76.3K to be honest. Please quote me on that. I’ve talked about it in every Newsletter and YouTube video since February and I have every reason to believe that’s where we would get structural CONFIRMATION of WEAKNESS that would allow the next attempt at $60K to be broken cleanly after July.

I wouldn’t be jumping into a random short entry based off this belief but it is why I chose to enter my Short around $76.3K most recently. The bias for the price is pretty obvious when it shows WEAKNESS there. If you zoom out it’s still a great time to DCA but I am of the opinion the 4 year cycle is very much still in play meaning we have a lot of room to run and the game now is mostly not getting distracted by the other shiny objects. It’s much easier to make gains in stocks than Crypto right now and yet I’m still able to profit off knowing the Bitcoin chart regardless of which direction it goes. That to me is more valuable than just more profit.

We don’t have any historical precedent for the price to break ABOVE the Weekly SMA in a Bear Market and for it to stay ABOVE it. Every instance on the chart inevitably resolves to the downside and we’re seeing now is no different. A Weekly SMA RETEST would occur if price rises back to $73K but that would be predicated by STRENGTH shown in the range from $69K-$70.3K and it remains to be seen if that will occur since I’ve been watching price drop all morning. I think has literally doubled in profit just watching while writing this.

When price FAILED BELOW $76.3K it CONFIRMED on both the Weekly and Monthly timeframes a FAILURE of that Fib Pivot AND the April close was $76.3K - meaning a BEARISH FLIP on the Monthly candle is what prompted downside pressure on every other timeframe. The bottom band of the Downtrend AVWAP on the Weekly timeframe sits at about $68K so again that range is going to be where we mostly likely find TEMPORARY SUPPORT. I think the writing is on the wall for a $64K RETEST if we spend time BELOW $70.3K.

I don’t argue with the chart. 2014 was the only time we had an extended period of time ABOVE the Weekly SMA after breaking BELOW it - and 2026 we’ve now seen the 2nd longest extension for a total of 6 weeks ABOVE it after a RETEST and I think MAINLY because of the $76.3K Fib Pivot being so close when we saw that SMA RETEST. This functionally confused the price (I know it isn’t sentient) and made SUPPORT unclear as to which level actually was providing it. This is what allowed for price MANIPULATION and that push to $83K that I had anticipated but it also allowed for this downside momentum once $76.3K formed RESISTANCE.

Interestingly enough we are also nearing the top band of the Elder AVWAP (the one I have drawn from 2011) at around $62.2K on the Weekly timeframe - so price will be pulled in that direction assuming it loses momentum at the $68K level. But I don’t need to see NEW LOWS in June to believe my overall thesis of a LOWER HIGH forming RESISTANCE at $76.3K in the month of July. The narrative will likely flip to Bitcoin is going to keep dropping and it will show STRENGTH between $60K and $64K and then we’ll see it fight to climb back ABOVE $70K before in my opinion FAILING around $76.3K. And every else will be calling for new LOWS in June and new HIGHS in July. But it’s going to be those levels that actually dictate the trend - not my opinion or anyone else’s.

Historically speaking we get 3-4 Green Candles in a Bear Market year. We’ve already gotten 2 and May spent most of the month pretending to be one. I would imagine that July is going to be another Green month as I’ve stated ABOVE which really doesn’t have to be that HIGH depending on how LOW the price goes during June. If June closes BELOW $64K then it’s quite easy for July to be “BULLISH” the same way that anything ABOVE $76.3K was initially BULLISH for May until it started to show WEAKNESS at key level ranges.

It’s quite possible that July is the last Green Candle of the year for Bitcoin - according to the probability. We may see another one in October/November but that would be a rise from whatever LOWS have been set certainly not anything close to the prices we see now. So you really have to start asking questions about your strategy and how to optimize your stack. Depending on your cost basis and length of holding it may be appropriate to reduce Satoshi exposure if you believe you can buy it back later at a lower price. But I personally am just going to focus on stacking more not trimming my BTC.

Not much left to say here that I won’t continue repeating for the next 4 weeks. April OPENED the Month at $68.2K so that will be worth paying attention to this month combined with the bottom band of the Downtrend AVWAP around that level that I’ve mentioned ABOVE. The highest probability for June is downside pressure that’s about it. It doesn’t mean it’s dead, I don’t believe we’ll see $44K this month. But I think it’s more than likely we will see at least $64K again and possibly $60K depending on if any of the ranges I’ve highlighted form SUPPORT.

This is why I think it’s so valuable to learn how to trade Perpetuals and Futures rather than continuing to sit on your hands and wait for the price to drop so you can buy it - or while you focus on Stocks that you can’t predict when the top will happen. If you want to get my help personally on improving your Bitcoin accumulation and trading strategy then you can respond to this email and we can set up a 1:1 Call. Other than that just don’t get too distracted because we will see Bitcoin levels this year that we never see again and you either capture it or you miss out again.

I will be doing everything in my power to make sure I can catch the bottom both for SPOT and Leveraged positions and you can too if you develop a solid plan and stick to it without getting bored of it.