Right now on the 4H we’ve been seeing momentum build toward a RETEST of $64K after FAILING it last week. This will be the first clue as to whether the local bottom is in for June or if we need to break LOWER again before carrying Bullish momentum into the start of July (if traditional Bitcoin cycle theory holds true specifically to the 2018 cycle). If the price can form SUPPORT at $64K then it will make its way for a CONFIRMATION of around $67K next. If price forms WEAKNESS at $64K then we would expect another RETEST of the newly established LOW of $59.1K - slightly LOWER than February’s $59.9K.

With price sitting right at the $64K range while I’m writing this email I would imagine we have CONFIRMATION of that movement fairly soon (possibly even before I finish recording today’s YouTube video). The bottom band of the Downtrend AVWAP from $126K is sitting at $67.2K just BELOW the point of control for the Anchored Volume Profile at $67.5K. Whether we BREAK and RETEST that level now or in another week or two isn’t important but we WILL interact with that range again whether the price dips lower or heads right to it.

I have not closed my Short yet. There is probably an argument for me to do so when $64K is CONFIRMED as SUPPORT not RESISTANCE. If confirmed as Resistance obviously I can just stay in the position until we confirm LOWER than $59.1K is necessary. But time is running out where I need to make the decision between A) closing the position and going Long with my Perps or B) leaving the position to compound later and buying Long Futures Contracts to profit off the upside going into July.

This is basically a test of my own conviction. If you’ve following my work for more than a few videos or Newsletters then you know I was talking about $83K-$86K RETEST for several months before it occured and it went right to the target. So I don’t know that I should wait now until my $54K target is hit or just to be thankful for the profits I already have and move on the next setup. But to have the option whilst in tremendous profits is still a way better experience than I’ve had with any other trading style that I’ve used before finding the Perpetual Futures.

The only other thing I’m watching on the 4H is the top band of the Elder AVWAP (drawn from the lowest candle in 2011) sitting at about $58.2K. We did not hit on this first break BELOW $59.9K however it’s too significant of a magnetic force for the price to simply ignore forever when skirting so close to that. That means whether it’s at the end of July or by the end of this week - I would expect price wants CONFIRMATION of STRENGTH at that level not just to dismiss it without an interaction.

The Daily has been having a tough time since May 15th showing nothing but WEAKNESS as every attempt back to the SMA was REJECTED immediately. $65.8K is showing up as a key Fibonacci Pivot that we should RETEST fairly soon if $64K holds STRONG as mentioned ABOVE. And the same targets of $67.2K and $67.5K hold true for this timeframe as well. I expect most of the chop to be around $64K and $67K themselves and we’ll just have to REACT to what the price decides because while I don’t believe the bottom is in yet - that doesn’t mean that I’m correct. And it’ll STRENGTH on the Daily timeframe past those key targets that will invalidate a push down past $59.1K for now at least.

Don’t forget how far away the Daily SMA is at the moment though, sitting at $71K there’s several important psychological levels between here and there. Primarily being the $69K 2nd ATH in 2021 as well as the Monthly closes of $61.4K in 2021. This could be where some of the SUPPORT was formed when we just broke BELOW $60K again. There are many people that are using this region as the basis for their belief that the bottom is in - which I think is unlikely just given the pressure the Bond Market will experience over the summer and how Stocks do eventually have to cool off and that won’t be an immediately Bullish scenario for Bitcoin even if it seems no longer correlated.

The main thing to remember for the Daily timeframe this week is just whether the shape is showing RECOVERY, CONSOLIDATION or continued REJECTION. Make sure to keep watching my YouTube updates throughout the week to get more context about which pattern is most likely unfolding as it happens.

I’ve been talking about the range between $64K and $76.3K for so long here and on YouTube that people will quote it back to me in comments. There’s no reason to overcomplicate your system and this one works. It’s hard for me to believe we’re about to shoot past the Daily SMA after spending such a long period of time BELOW it but I do still believe a rise into July is likely. However after relooking at the Daily timeframe for 2018 the downside momentum actually lasted most of the month. So while I was previously thinking this rally shifts during Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting on June 16th - it may be irrelevant if price just keeps chopping around $64K for the next few weeks. We’ll know very soon.

I don’t think it’s impossible for price to rise to the bottom band of the Downtrend AVWAP at $67.2K and yet still FAIL back BELOW $59.1K again. However we will see the REACTION to that price determine whether we see a Daily SMA RETEST now or if we have to wait for the end of the month. Regardless if we do see that then I will likely be closing my Short and then waiting patiently for the next entry pivot. You can always book a 1:1 Call with me if you want more help navigating your positions here.

Last week the price opened at $73.7K and crashed all the way down to close at $63.3K. On its way down it broke 1) the Weekly SMA at $72.8K 2) the point of control at $67.5K 3) bottom band of the Downtrend AVWAP at $67.2K AND 4) the $64K Fibonacci Pivot for the first CLOSE BELOW that level - Feb was wicks. None of these are inherently BULLISH signals and creating a NEW LOW here also speaks to later WEAKNESS in the chart again even with a rise into July. All that really matters in terms of STRENGTH on the Weekly timeframe is RECLAIMING each one of those points that I just highlighted ABOVE.

Each one of those levels is a perfect opportunity for the price to get REJECTED and head back down to RETEST $59.1K and new LOWS. OR the perfect opportunity to start building SUPPORT back toward HIGHER targets again. I’m of the opinion we go no higher than $76.3K-$80K even in the event of a July rise so the month of June is really more about paying attention to which levels we pause at and which ones we rip right through. So far it’s $64K and $67K that are showing some signs of CONSOLIDATION and the rest south of $73.8K just seems like no man’s land until we’ve seen more Weekly closes in the range.

I titled Sunday’s video “The Bitcoin BOTTOM IS NOT IN!” because I genuinely believe we have not seen the LOWS of this cycle yet. Every other cycle we BREAK and RETEST the top band of the AVWAP on the Weekly timeframe and I have no reason to believe this time is different. That level is currently $38.5K and while I do expect it’ll continue rising by the time we finally interact with it - I see no reason why the price won’t return there even if it is just for a brief moment in time. So whether the LOWS are already in for June or not - I don’t believe the cycle LOWS are in and you should be wary of any channel that is claiming they are. The June LOWS will be CONFIRMED within another few days or 2 weeks, the cycle LOWS won’t be CONFIRMED until December if we’re being honest.

Broadly what I’m thinking about now is just managing my Perps during these swings. I have not started DCAing again yet - that does not mean it’s not an acceptable time to be doing so - I just play a riskier game. Historically speaking ANY TIME we are BELOW the Weekly and Monthly SMA is the BEST TIME to buy Bitcoin - there is no argument against that. So you really just need to stay calm during the fireworks in July because it will probably be hard to stay focused on a reasonable strategy when Stocks and everything else are ripping like crazy and Bitcoin finally starts to show signs that it’s going to follow - only to have that rally FAIL. Or at least that’s my base case hypothesis we’ll see how it plays out in reality.

The Monthly timeframe really isn’t under any pressure until the end of the month. It’s not that big a deal for the price to have broken down BELOW $60K again because we have historical context for it doing so (I remind you in every YouTube video about this for a reason). And the fact that price is clinging to $64K so tightly now is just more indication that the level will be important later and I would imagine that price will want to close ABOVE $64K by end of June. A happy price will be ABOVE the $67K targets then but again we’re so early in the month that it’s almost pointless conjecture to focus on instead of just paying attention to how we react to the key targets on the lower timeframes.

It is worth noting that Bear Markets typically only experience 3-4 Green Candles on the Monthly timeframe and we already have 2 of them. The highest probability for those other 1-2 Green Candles is July and November in my opinion - meaning the rest is mostly going to be chop or very rare steak. Obviously I will continue to watch this timeframe as the month progresses while comparing it to the previous cycles but for the most part I would assume the downside pressure is more powerful than upside momentum all of June.

$64K is the $76.3K of the present moment, you’re gonna hear me repeat that level A LOT of times between now and August most likely. I didn’t really expect us to break BELOW it so quickly but now that we have we really just need to watch for SUPPORT forming at either $64K or $67K and then just REACT to what the price wants to do after CONFIRMATION. But again with the context that MOST Monthly candles are RED in a Bear Market literally anything BELOW $73.7K will facilitate that need for June. And my subscribers already know how important $73.8K is so we’re not just going to teleport back there without a significant amount of volume.

If you’re someone who is fairly new to Bitcoin - you are probably wondering whether or not you should hold onto it or sell it when you hear me continue to repeat that it’s going LOWER. This is not financial advice but I genuinely don’t believe the average person should be selling ANY of their Bitcoin unless it meaningfully improves the quality of your life. You have to factor in cycles for these decisions but it’s just money at the end of the day and it’s not going anywhere but up over the long term as long as Governments and Corporations stay greedy. They will.

I’m focused on reducing my debt and increasing my income during this time period so I can be ready to heavily DCA and lump sum later this year and all of my analysis will reflect that strategy.