As I am writing this the price is RETESTING the bottom band of the Downtrend AVWAP (more on today’s YouTube video) at $66.7K. If it can form STRENGTH there then $67.5K is the next most important level - being the point of control for the Anchored Volume Profile - the level that the most human beings have pressed the Buy/Sell button on. I’ve been saying on YouTube since last week that $67.5K is going to be crucial for whether we see another drop to sub $60K in June or STRENGTH at this level would indicate we are starting our push for the LOWER HIGH in July that I keep talking about as well. I don’t have an emotional bias for either, that’s just the most likely outcomes based on $67.5K.

I did choose to close my Short Saturday evening when I saw STRENGTH forming at $64K. When I posted on social media about it the next day I was met with people reminding me it was the news that prompted this move - but I had already closed the trade the day before the news dropped. If you are basing your trades off the news instead of the levels - you will lose money. The other Fib Pivots on the 4H to pay attention to are $66K and $67.1K and it does not seem like the price is overly concerned with either - $67.5K is the prize. I will continue watching the REACTION to the Downtrend AVWAP and report on it in the rest of this week’s YouTube videos and email updates so stay tuned.

You open a Short on WEAKNESS and you close that Short on STRENGTH. That was my thesis for this trade that I walked away with 160% profits. Could have closed it at 220% profits when we broke $60K and that would have been the time to Long the LOWS but I am not convinced that another RETEST BELOW $60K is off the table for June yet. I think the STRENGTH at $64K combined with the BULLISH anticipation for FOMC this week is causing the price to surge toward $67.5K but the overall narrative of where we are psychologically in the cycle has not changed.

By that I mean we are locked in a myriad of competing ideologies around whether or not it is safe to continue HOLDING Bitcoin now vs taking Profits and returning later to reinvest. Anyone who bought before 2024 is not concerned with these prices because their cost basis is significantly LOWER. Anyone who bought later than February 2024 is having to watch the price return close to or BELOW the levels they bought at and this is their first true test of CONVICTION for Bitcoin. Anyone who bought in the latter half of 2024 and most of 2025 is having to sit patiently in LOSS and UNCERTAINTY while waiting for NEW HIGHS.

If history repeats itself (and it usually does with Bitcoin) then the only HOLDERS who will not be in pain this cycle are the ones who bought during the previous Bear Market and Pre Halving Years (2022-2023). It is my belief that this market cycle is NOT OVER until everyone who bought in 2024 has had their CONVICTION sufficiently tested and the Anchored Volume Profile will reflect that by a thinning at old levels and a widening at the levels we are currently consolidating around. More on this soon.

I’ve been talking about this trend for a while now on YouTube but it’s not strange for us to stay DISCONNECTED from the Daily SMA for significant periods of time during Bear Market (and Bull Market) years. While a 4H SMA RETEST may occur every day or two, the Daily can go WEEKS without touching. It is too early in my opinion to CONFIRM a flip ABOVE it and we’ll need to pay attention to how the price REACTS to $67.5K and whether that move has enough momentum to carry HIGHER or if this is just the LOWER HIGH RETEST before another BREAK BELOW $60K when people least expect to see it again.

I don’t care about the news, I care about the levels - and the levels all say the same thing. We are RETESTING the bottom band of the Downtrend AVWAP both on the 4H and Daily (and Weekly) timeframes and while more BULLISH YouTubers are convinced we’re about to explode HIGHER - I’m just paying attention to $67.5K with a clear mind and plenty of cash in my portfolio so I can REACT to the level instead of trying to front run the move ahead of time. That means I will not get the perfect Long entry - but it will be good enough.

The Daily SMA itself is around $66.5K and the bottom band of the Downtrend AVWAP sits just ABOVE that so the REACTION there will either pull us toward $67.5K or REJECT that momentum and push us back toward $64K before FOMC. I am leaning more toward seeing $67.5K right now than $64K and that’s why I closed my Short in the first place to lock in my profits rather than continuing to watch them slip away. When I did a thorough analysis of the Daily timeframe for 2018 on YouTube I found that price dropped for the entirety of June with several LOWER HIGHS formed on the way to the Lows. So for me I don’t believe that is completely off the table IF WEAKNESS shows at $67.5K. Obviously if we show STRENGTH there past $70.3K then I’m wrong.

There’s about to be a UFC fight on the lawn of the White House on July 4th and yet it costs you more than $20 to eat lunch anywhere decent. The world just saw it’s first trillionaire printed and SPY is at all time highs. All signs point to BULLISH FOREVER right? Wrong. Bitcoin does not follow exactly what everything else does - it acts as a sponge to the contrary in years like this one. Meaning the people in the know will stay in Stocks until it’s time to sell them WHILE SHORTING Bitcoin - and then promptly buy as much Bitcoin as possible at the LOWS when Stocks are done ripping and have started their own decent toward Cycle LOWS.

It’s always possible that I’m wrong about that and I do talk about that possibility most days on YouTube - that we could be seeing the 2019 leg of the 2018 Bear Market happen sooner than later - but I think based on me being entirely correct about the RISE to $83K getting REJECTED (for anyone new to the Newsletter I called that out back in February) we would have expected to see the rise there instead of after WEAKNESS. So to me personally, I see no evidence that we are randomly going to teleport to new Bitcoin HIGHS just because everything else is BULLISH. Sometimes you need to be able to read BETWEEN the lines and if you’re having trouble doing so that’s okay it’s why I write this to help you.

If you were looking at the Weekly timeframe in isolation then it objectively looks like the BOTTOM is already in and we’re off to RETEST the Weekly SMA at $71.1K. History has shown us multiple RETESTS of the Weekly SMA during the summer is not strange during a Bear Market year (more on YouTube) and a RETEST does not invalidate my belief that a LOWER HIGH will be the result. I still don’t think we see price go HIGHER than $76.3K in the month of July and even if we do I would EXPECT WEAKNESS to show by no HIGHER than $80K. I don’t have a crystal ball but that’s what the chart is telling me so I will listen.

As I said ABOVE we are now also RETESTING the bottom band of the Downtrend AVWAP on the Weekly timeframe which for me makes it entirely possible that we see STRENGTH into FOMC followed by a SELL OFF over the weekend to close the Week BELOW that band at $66.6K. Again this will be entirely predicated on the REACTION to the price at $67.5K. If we show STRENGTH there then ignore any bias toward further downside for now. But I’m not convinced guys, too many major news events that make you want to believe everything is fine and dandy so to me there’s something else going on.

The levels are pretty consistent across timeframes - $67.5K is the most important level right now, with $71.1K being the next most important one. Now that we’ve seen functional SUPPORT formed at $64K I don’t need to talk about $60K right now other than again if we see FOMC Rally the price - and then a major sell off going into the weekend after news. History has produced LOWS historically during this time period and that’s still what I’m looking for personally. As I’ve said I do expect a LOWER HIGH in July so the trade is a Long at the moment not further expectation of Downside (until later in the month of July) but again my study of the 2018 chart leads me to believe another $60K RETEST is not completely impossible - and like I say on YouTube - Donald Trump WAS President during 2018 and has said publicly “We were gonna run the same plan! It was gonna be GREAT!” So I’m gonna keep using the 2018 cycle as a corrolary until the analysis is sufficiently INVALIDATED.

I believe the Politicians are trying to force Clarity to pass by July 4th and I do still anticipate that to be a Buy the Rumor, Sell the News event - it just means the LOWER HIGH I talk about for July may be very early in the month rather than anything more extended. This would be in alignment with major HIGHS/LOWS forming early in months like we saw in May (and it makes sense for the rich people relying on Futures income). If that theory holds true then the major players would have rolled over their May SHORTS into June - then closed them when we broke $60K - so they can now go LONG into July - where they will rollover end of June - then sell early July - then flip BEARISH in July - etcetera etcetera. All the rest of us plebians can do is try to learn from the pattern and profit.

Historically speaking a Bear Market year will produce 3-4 Green Monthly candles and we’ve already seen 2 of them. As I always say on YouTube, I believe the highest likelihood is we see those other 2 candles in July and November (give or take a few weeks to either side). Obviously June is going to close BEARISH unless you believe price is magically going to RECLAIM $73.6K before the end of the month and I don’t really see that happening personally. That would mean we’d have to spend no time at all chopping around $67.5K - which again is the price that holds THE MOST EMOTIONAL WEIGHT for all the other human beings like yourself with their finger on the Buy/Sell button. I don’t think we just rocket past that price and if we do I would be cautious.

$70.3K is the middle of the $64K to $76.3K range and as I always say, anything BELOW there puts pressure toward $64K and anything ABOVE puts pressure toward $76.3K. I would not assume price is just going to RECLAIM all this downside momentum back to the upside strictly because Stocks are strong while the rest of the economy continues to show signs of WEAKNESS. And subscribers already know how important $73.8K is so again I would not expect the price to just magically teleport past these levels - they need time for CONFIRMATION and that only comes when significant chop is fulfilled. And just a reminder once again - any close BELOW $73.6K is BEARISH for June.

I do not hold Bitcoin because of what it will be worth tomorrow. I hold Bitcoin because of Chapter 1 of my book - Fiat Inflation. As long as governments continue to print money - the price of scarce assets like Bitcoin and Gold will continue to rise FOREVER - it’s just how it works. Because I understand this broader trend I don’t need to be emotional during narratives in the cycle that make me question whether this time is “different” or not. Rich people make their wealth during transfers - transfers occur during periods of stress - stress presents itself because everything was going smoothly - until it wasn’t so smooth anymore.

New highs would be too good to be true AND the ETF buyers would not have to experience any pain at all - which means Rich people can’t buy the fearful people’s distressed assets. I firmly believe you follow the money, and smart money buys an asset and then dies with it. Foolish people need to live off their profits, the ultra wealthy borrow and own. So you can buy into the July 4th hype and the Clarity Act and the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and all that and dump your money in before we SOAR TO NEW HIGHS - OR you can exercise some patience and pay attention to how the charts actually behave. And I think you’ll find there will still be another opportunity to buy at cheap prices later in the year.

I guess it’s worth noting that my tinfoil hat was on tight during this Newsletter but the levels kind of speak for themselves this week.

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