Right now on the 4H the price is on an uptrend from the $59.1K LOWS but as I’m writing this price was just REJECTED off $65.5K meaning that $66K is not yet SUPPORT and will force the price back toward $64K to CONFIRM whether it is now functioning as SUPPORT or RESISTANCE. Yesterday price was MANIPULATED BELOW the 4H SMA only to snap right back ABOVE it. Structurally speaking we are in limbo until we have CONFIRMATION of trend moving into the month of July. I am of the opinion that we see a LOWER HIGH form in July and it’s just whether or not we see another DROP before that.

The bottom band of the Downtrend AVWAP sits just ABOVE the $66.2K Fib Pivot and for the most part price just wants CONFIRMATION of SUPPORT at $60K, $62K, $64K before making another ATTEMPT to break ABOVE $67.5K. I would not expect price to get REJECTED again at $67.5K IF we are indeed about to see another LOWER HIGH form in the month of July. If $64K holds now as SUPPORT after the recent FAILURE BELOW $66K then we expect that RETEST to happen sooner than later but seasonality for June is still BEARISH and therefore we cannot completely abandon the possibility of LOWER first.

I am still in my Short. It did flip into Loss this morning. I am not stressed about it coming off my very nice profit earlier this month. However time is running out for the price to express itself to the downside in June BEFORE my expectation of a July LOWER HIGH. Now do I expect the price to be LOWER than it is now by the end of the year? Yes, yes I do. Which means technically I don’t need to close this Short and rather should be looking for opportunities to compound it. However. IF we do see the July LOWER HIGH, then that will be a much better position to add to my Short to than right now, so I’m mostly just waiting until CONFIRMATION of the trend so I can add to the upside for July.

As I’ve said in many YouTube videos, I believe that $64K is a critically important level that we will spend A LOT of time on in the coming months and possibly even deep into next year as well. So while it is important to be cautious before adding heavily to your spot position before another major drop - this range can be expected as a healthy support zone moving forward and therefore is not a terrible cost basis.

In general if you’re reading this I would assume it’s because you want to accumulate more Bitcoin or profit off your knowledge of the chart. That means taking advantage of every opportunity below the Weekly and Monthly SMAs that you are able to don’t get distracted while it’s boring.

Price was disconnected from the Daily SMA from May 15th until it RETESTED it on June 15th and we’ve now seen it chop back BELOW before resting ABOVE it. IF this LOWER HIGH theory into July holds true then we WOULD expect to start seeing some BULLISH momentum on the Daily timeframe to confirm it. But the same obstacles remain true for the price across the timeframes now.

That being primarily the REACTION to the point of control at $67.5K that I mentioned as well as the bottom band of the Downtrend AVWAP across most timeframes. And then more locally speaking each timeframe has different Fib Pivots we need to pay attention to ($64K is the most important) and for the Daily timeframe at the moment that other pivot is about $65.8K which is just ABOVE where price REJECTED earlier today. So if $64K holds as SUPPORT then I would imagine that Pivot point is the first place price is going to head next.

We are seeing considerable COMPRESSION on the Daily Bollinger Bands so expect a major move within the next couple days most likely by end of week.

Broadly speaking I expect to see STRENGTH on the Daily timeframe sooner than later but another shakeout first is not out of character. The 2018 cycle did print multiple LOWS during the month of June into the very last week so while we are seeing more STRENGTH now than then it is still possible we see WEAKNESS if $64K cannot hold as SUPPORT. But as time continues to pass we may need to accept $59.1K as the LOW for June and just pivot to the next major move - which would be HIGHER.

Obviously the Clarity Act and whether or not it passes this time around is the major news story at the moment - but I really think of it as a sell off point more than anything. The long term implications are BULLISH but anyone calling for new all time highs this year is delusional in my opinion. So I wouldn’t get caught thinking the price will keep rising after July and I find it difficult to believe price will break ABOVE $76.3K.

The Weekly timeframe looks objectively BEARISH - which is another reason why I think we’re about to flip to the upside for the month of July. Like I talk about all the time on YouTube, Bear Market years typically print between 3-4 Red Monthly candles and since we’ve already seen 2 of them - that means we have 1-2 more. I personally believe the next one will be July and the other one would likely be either October or November depending when the major drop actually materializes (assuming that it does and I still do believe that). So while many are calling for those LOWER prices RIGHT NOW - we must be patient.

It is worth noting that ALL BREAKS ABOVE the Weekly SMA during a Bear market have historically resulted in DOWNSIDE PRESSURE even if price is able to stay above it for an extended period of time. We would not expect this to fully flip until we are on the other side of the relative bottom and I don’t think that happens until all the ETF buyers have had their conviction sufficiently tested by watching their cost basis get melted BELOW $50K for Bitcoin.

History doesn’t repeat but it often rhymes. And I’m expecting it to rhyme again whenever we see that Weekly SMA RETEST in the month of July with another FAILURE - at which point I will recompound my Short and then mostly do nothing but write these emails and record YouTube videos since the only available moves on the chart from August to September will be small chop and more suited to Futures than Perps. In general I am using this time to increase my income and my education and that’s really the best way anyone can spend time during periods of serious uncertainty like we are seeing this year for Bitcoin despite objectively BULLISH news for its continued adoption and regulation.

I don’t think the Stablecoin situation is going to result in the Altseason everyone is anticipating but I could be wrong - and either way Bitcoin will be the first and clear winner so ignoring it would be foolish now. As I said before we’re just waiting to see if we have enough STRENGTH to CONFIRM the LOWS or if we need to RETEST them one more time before beginning our rise into July - which could last for most of the month.

The broader trend is BEARISH, there’s not much left to say about that. June WILL close BEARISH. This is to be expected both by seasonality as well as probability so nothing really to be confused by. Even the exact location of the June close doesn’t really matter that much for July because it will be a very LOW bar to print a Green candle. However the June close WILL likely be more important for wherever we chop during August and September. Which I am inclined to believe will be between the mid points of the range we’ve been stuck in and the one right below us - those mid points are $70.3K to $54K.

If that eventual break BELOW those levels causing more FEAR in the markets, all the better for the rich folks seeking to buy these assets at distressed prices. Which is why I personally believe the likelihood of new highs this year is basically nonexistent and I think we saw the 2026 HIGHS in January at $97.9K. I don’t see that many 4 year cycle deniers still clinging to that narrative but be prepared for the July rally to bring a lot of that nonsense back into discussion.

As my awareness of the asset class increases I’m becoming more interested in the trading side than I am the investing side. I talk about this more in my first book (link down below) but I genuinely believe the wealthy are doing everything in their power to make Bitcoin seem less appealing than other assets and they’re doing it so they can quietly amass as much as possible before the rocket launches during the Stablecoin expansion next year. That means I’m just focused on buying more when it’s distressed and then doing absolutely nothing with it. And while that may seem like a disadvantage - if I can reliably predict how the price is going to behave (which you’ve seen over time that I can) then my actual focus should be on applying leverage to that knowledge.

Now that Perpetuals and Futures contracts are more readibly accessible I think a lot of the narratives around DeFi and Altcoins will just be used as smokescreens when you could instead be reliably profiting off high signal Bitcoin moves rather than yoloing your money into something you can’t predict just because it MAY (or may not) have more upside than BTC. For me the solution is simple, become so accurate on the Bitcoin chart that I don’t need to go fishing anywhere else and you know that already because you’re subscribed. Go check out the YouTube video.

Don’t get shaken out right now because the market is BORING - this is the time where you build momentum for the next major move.