Last week we saw major FAILURES BELOW the 4H Anchored VWAP middle band that we’ve been talking about all February. This overwhelmingly indicates DOWNSIDE pressure just by the very nature of DROPPING down into that band (as opposed to RISING into it). Typically at this stage of the cycle - the progression will follow that the middle band will be BROKEN and price will continue toward the BOTTOM band (very similar to how Bollinger Bands work).

That bottom band on the 4H is currently sitting at $36K and it is my opinion we will get pulled very close to that (I could believe a bottom anywhere between $34K-$39K for the most part). I do not think this happens overnight but it is the overall trend we need to keep in mind. In the short term pay close attention to the price reaction $70.2K and whether or not it is able to stay comfortably ABOVE either $69K or $73.8K (being important previous ATHs).

I don’t argue with the 4H Anchored VWAP - if it tells me that the trend is consolidation or BEARISHNESS then I have to assume the tool knows more than I do. History shows us that Bitcoin is becoming more RESILIENT over time - meaning we should close the higher timeframe VWAP well ABOVE the lower band instead of breaking it (which is important because the Monthly bottom band is sitting at $29K now).

In the short term - any interaction with the middle band is one we have to pay close attention to, and that band is currently sitting at $65.7K. Continuous RETESTS will force price LOWER and right now we just want to see if price can form SUPPORT ABOVE $69K or not. Because RESISTANCE there will make downside pressure on $65.7K inevitable.

I set a downtrend Anchored VWAP as well from the highs in October and currently the bottom band of that VWAP is at $71.9K - so any reaction there would also be a crucial one to watch out for. In general if price shows WEAKNESS there or around the $70.2K fib pivot then we can expect another RETEST of the 50% retracement mark of around $63K. The reality is we are in a Bear Market and you don’t fight the trend.

Last week the price interacted with the Daily SMA more days than it didn’t. So it is at least ATTEMPTING to break back ABOVE it and currently as of writing it is ABOVE that $67.3K SMA level. But just like on the 4H timeframe the overall structure of the chart right now is still overwhelingly BEARISH. I’ve been talking about it for weeks on YouTube about how the Relief Rally theoretical highs get pulled LOWER and LOWER each week (originally $96K now barely $80K).

The BEST CASE SCENARIO for Bitcoin right now is CONSOLIDATION not new All Time Highs so be very cautious of any content creator (or government official or corporation owner) who is telling you the price is about to rise. It WILL rise later this year but only after finding its true Bear Market Bottom first.

Meanwhile if price cannot sustain STRENGTH ABOVE $63.1K then we can expect the price will need to RETEST the $59.9K LOW of February soon. The more times it interacts with that level while there is still uncertainty in the market the more likely price will have a dramatic reaction at some point.

You should always be taking your Bitcoin strategy one day at a time. There is no perfect accumulation or profit taking strategy or we’d all be paying whatever premium is required for such a service. That means you need to have capital ready for boring buys as well as more aggressive ones (depending on your risk tolerance). But any time we are facing Daily consolidation and downside pressure you need to be able to take step back and assess how aggressive it is appropriate for you to be right now.

We are getting very close to the levels in a cycle that one would want to be aggressive around - so now you need to prepare your finances in such a way that you can properly capitalize on those movements. It may be several weeks and months before we see the completion of this trend and that means lots of opportunities for you to rush rather than research. There is no shame in taking your time before making decisions.

The Weekly timeframe is caught in a dangerous pattern at the moment. While the Monthly OBJECTIVELY closed BEARISH - the Weekly is actually showing some momentum toward the mid range of $64K and $76.3K that we’ve been watching. While a FAILURE at that midpoint would clearly indicate another RETEST of $64K and LOWER - STRENGTH closer to the $76.3K pivot would allow that theoretical Relief Rally to approach that $80K target mentioned.

We are very far away from the Weekly SMA and the trend is very Bearish despite some structural SUPPORT around $59K-$61K and Psychological SUPPORT between $63.1K and the $64K Fibonacci Pivot. All this meaning IF we lose those levels then the chart will take it very personally - whereas again even if we rise ABOVE them our most likely outcome is still CONSOLIDATION.

Bitcoin is best when it’s boring. This is the time to be honing your strategy (I’ve been studying the 4H chart religiously for better entries for nanoBTC Perpetuals and Futures contracts on Coinbase). If you are someone who can afford to watch the chart all the time then there are plenty of trades to be taken in both directions. But if you are more in the camp of just dollar cost averaging then you should be very happy now.

The only question to ask yourself is how much Bitcoin do you actually want to accumulate? Because the price will continue to give you great offers all year long and you either take advantage of that or you don’t. The writing is on the wall that this asset class is not going anywhere and it’s just a matter of time until the price fully reflects that reality. And all that will matter then is how much you are exposed to that upside. Not investing advice but you can’t grow your Bitcoin stack if you don’t buy it.

In 2018 there were 6 consecutive red monthly candles so don’t listen to people who are saying that it can’t possibly happen again. The bar is also very low for March to technically be BULLISH since price closed February around $67K - meaning ANYTHING ABOVE that point would be a green candle on Monthly. I don’t think you should be making analysis decisions based on such arbitrary metrics - the momentum of each cycle will tell you much more than whether each candle matched the exact pattern of the previous cycles or not.

The important part is how far we stay away from the Monthly SMA (currently at $89.9K). We do not have any historical precedent for price RECLAIMING the Monthly SMA in less than about 6 months - so that would be the earliest we could see a RETEST and it’s more likely still we see a FAILURE not SUPPORT. This all changes if for whatever reason they pass the Genius and Clarity Act sooner and get Liquidity unlocked to flow back into the markets. But that is still more likely early 2027 that occurs rather than the middle of this year.

I’m not going to fight the trend and the trend is still very BEARISH. This is not inherently a bad thing - it just means I have time to prepare my finances for my preferred Bitcoin accumulation strategy. But the reality is anyone who’s buying BELOW both the Weekly and Monthly SMAs will eventually be rewarded as long as the price continues to behave as it always has - now that’s a big IF but that’s why we’re all here after all.

While it is possible that we see some momentum come early this year I just don’t see how that would happen when SPY is starting to show WEAKNESS and Gold looks like it’s just getting started. This does not typically indicate STRENGTH for Bitcoin and therefore once again we just have to accept the trend is mostly downside for now and pay attention to when we reach the next key pivot point closer to $44K. That’s where we’d need to see SUPPORT form for CONSOLIDATION or expect a drop lower to the targets I mentioned higher up in this Newsletter.

All that really matters this year is whether you end up with more Satoshis than you started it with - don’t worry about the dollars.