As always the 4H tells us most of what we need to know about the price between each Newsletter. We are caught between two very important Tools that I talk about here all the time - a Downtrend Anchored VWAP from the $126K ATH and the Elder VWAP that I’ve drawn from the oldest red candles available on the Bitcoin/US Dollar chart. Last week price broke ABOVE the bottom band of the Downtrend and then FAILING. But only after it closed ABOVE the middle band of the Elder VWAP. This is very telling short term.

Price has been BELOW the bottom band of the Downtrend since January and it remains to be seen whether it will close the week closer to the Elder VWAP or the bottom band Downtrend. Interestingly the middle band of the Downtrend is about $86K right now - which is right where I’ve been talking about on YouTube as the highest I could really see the price running this Relief Rally.

The price is still very close to that bottom band Downtrend and it did show STRENGTH ABOVE the Elder VWAP middle band - but it did that AFTER breaking back BELOW it again. So we’re waiting to see now which one it needs to RETEST first and the conclusion is basically opposite. If it RETESTS and rises ABOVE the bottom band Downtrend - then it will need to trend in favor of the middle band Downtrend - that $86K mark.

However if price continues to FAIL now back toward $65.8K then it will put more pressure to trend back toward the bottom band of the Elder VWAP - which is $36.2K at the moment. That’s not to say price is going to teleport to either $86K or $36.2K over night but the trend would favor whichever side of the VWAP that price shows the most STRENGTH at.

I know I repeated the same words a million times there - the blue line at $65.8K is important and the green line at $70.6K is important. And pretty much everything else is just noise right now until that momentum is confirmed to one side or the other. As I’m writing this it’s favoring the RETEST of the top one first - meaning we may be closer to $86K than $36.2K for the time being. I’ll be covering this more on YouTube.

The Daily SMA has been wrecking the price every time it interacts with it and this first week of March is really the first time we’ve seen any STRENGTH since early January. Price managed to break ABOVE before RETESTING back BELOW - and is now currently ABOVE though struggling to maintain that to end of day. It looks like the price also hit the Downtrend AVWAP bottom band on the Daily timeframe as well, meaning $70.6K is now important on both timeframes.

We are so far ABOVE the Daily timeframe Elder VWAP that it’s not worth mentioning but this interaction with the bottom band Downtrend is important. Just to review - the price spends most of its time in BULLISH regimes well ABOVE the top band of the Anchored VWAP. Once that band has been BROKEN it needs to trend toward the middle band. It is the interaction with this middle band that communicates to us about how trend will progress next.

So if the 4H Elder VWAP middle band shows STRENGTH then on both the Daily and 4H timeframes we should see closes ABOVE $70.6K to confirm it. The Daily SMA is currently sitting at $67.5K and it’s fairly flat after a long downtrend so price favors CONSOLIDATION until it breaks this range.

Looking for good news on the Daily timeframe while the Weekly and Monthly are bleeding is a fool’s errand. The trend is BEARISH until proven otherwise and any rise now is just a temporary one. Like I’ve mentioned in all recent YouTube videos our chances are $80K-$86K at best right now - I would be shocked if it goes higher and the amount of RESISTANCE price will face should it get to $96K makes it irrelevant.

I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again - I believe $97.9K in January is the highest that Bitcoin is going to be for the rest of the year. So anything BELOW that is going to be regarded as a LOWER HIGH and therefore a REJECTION for the price. This is not a bad thing this is just reality until proven otherwise. You can quote whatever news stories and narratives you want to me but it won’t change the structure of the chart until the liquidity returns and as far as I’m aware that’s next year not this year.

Even Ray Charles could see the Weekly chart is BEARISH right now. Our BEST CASE SCENARIO is price closing this Week ABOVE the 50% mark of the Fib Pivots we’ve been stuck between since early February - $64K and $76.2K. That’s right around that $70.2K poll that I placed above this and it’s an old Fibonacci Pivot on the Daily timeframe that I don’t think we’re done with. Any close BELOW that 50% mark puts pressure towards price RETESTING $64K and there’s only a few times we can do that without a rise higher before collapse.

Price is currently struggling with the Daily Fib Pivot $68.7K and the outcome of that candle today will give us the best clue for momentum moving forward. As I’ve mentioned many times on YouTube the Weekly SMA has been dropping LOWER each Week and it will force the Fib Pivots to act as RESISTANCE not SUPPORT when we finally RETEST them. That SMA is currently sitting at $84.4K which is why I don’t believe we see any HIGHER than $86K personally. But by the time we interact with that Weekly SMA it may be much lower than $80K.

I really wanted to believe another run for the $96K pivot was possible but the more I look at the chart the more it looks like we had our break BELOW it and then 9 Weeks of chopping BELOW with 4 FAILURES to stay above - only of them actually resulting in a wick HIGHER than the pivot. So similar to the $47.6K pivot in the 2022 cycle - we’ve already seen our BREAK and RETEST and the results were clear - in favor of DOWNSIDE. The more you try to ignore that the more the trend will punish you.

All I’m really looking at for momentum is if price can close Sunday ABOVE that range between $70.2K and $70.6K. Anything BELOW that and we start sliding back toward $64K and another break of the Elder VWAP middle band does not help the momentum trend BULLISH again. Price is currently respecting $65.9K but that’s not much SUPPORT preventing a wick down BELOW that $64K pivot. All eyes on $70.2K.

Historically speaking any time the price is BELOW the Monthly SMA - it stays BELOW it for a long time. We broke it in November and there’s no reason to believe that we’ll snap back ABOVE it any time soon - even if we do see one more RETEST and FAILURE of the Weekly SMA between now and that time. The $64K and $76.2K Fib pivots apply to both the Weekly and Monthly so we’re just waiting for the same CONFIRMATION on both timeframes now.

I’ve seen a lot of people say that Bitcoin can’t possibly close 6 months red in a row - which is incorrect but probability does favor a recovery month over another drop within reason. That just means March has to close ABOVE $67K. The Anchored Volume Profile indicates there is significant volume between $65.5K and about $69.9K - meaning there’s not much holding the price ABOVE or BELOW that point in terms of volume - so the trend is now our best friend.

I am not bothered when the price goes down - this would be like living in the rainforest and getting sad when it rains. It is completely normal for Bitcoin to behave this way after spending several YEARS ABOVE the Monthly SMA - it needs to cool down after doing that and that’s when it makes the most sense to DCA or lump sum into it - not financial advice. That’s just the reality of how the price has behaved and likely will onward.

History would suggest we see this downtrend extend as late as October - and in my opinion possibly even into January depending on the exact timeframe for the Genius Act and Clarity Act to finally be in effect. It benefits JP Morgan Chase the most if the price of Bitcoin is very LOW right when they offer their customers bonuses for depositing as much money as possible into their new Stablecoin offerings. Which will be prioritized by volume of transactions - not by staking or passive earning.

To quote Ayn Rand - “We can ignore reality - but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” Bitcoin moves when the money flows back to it - and it will keep bleeding until that time.