I’ve been talking about $73.8K for several weeks now both here and on YouTube so it was no surprise to me when the price REJECTED it the first time around and then continued to build SUPPORT below it to RETEST it now. For anyone who’s new to Bitcoin - $73.8K was the HIGH set in March of 2024 after the ETFs dramatically expanded the amount of liquidity enterting the markets. This was unprecendented at the time because Bitcoin normally experiences a new all time high at the END of a Halving Year not toward the beginning (on YouTube I talk about this being my belief of why we never saw $130K or more).

Now that price looks primed to keep rising ABOVE the bottom band of the Downtrend AVWAP I talked about here last week - that means it will continue to trend toward the middle band next. That middle band is sitting at $85.2K which is directly in alignment with my thesis that we don’t see price go much HIGHER than about $86K whenever this run runs out of steam in Q2. Short term it looks good but pay close attention to the 4H REACTION to $73.9K.

I’ve always been someone who appreciates HISTORY - for me it’s just a story and they all have similarities that I can recognize through study. The story now is that price is behaving exactly the same as 2018 and 2022 (and even 2014 to a degree) all that has changed is the names of the characters and their placement on the stage of global finance. Bitcoin is the punching bag of the markets right now and it will be until this cycle has fully completed - this upward momentum is TEMPORARY.

I believe price will continue to trend toward the middle band of that Downtrend AVWAP at $85.2K - this is in alignment with everything I’ve been saying on YouTube and Threads/Instagram for several weeks now. I do not however believe we’ll see price reach the upper band of the Elder VWAP I have set from 2011 - which means it will fail back toward the middle band when that happens and we’ve already been there recently.

These bands tells us momentum - and the chart itself tells us the levels. $69K and $73.8K are the two most relevant psychological levels where we are now. According to the Anchored Volume we have very little volume between here and about $86.5K and that means significant buying volume needs to enter here or it’s more likely people with low conviction that bought higher than $86K will start selling as it rises. Better for them to take a 5-10% loss on their Bitcoins than 30-40%.

Oh ye of little Satoshis, do not lose faith in the midst of a Bear Market.

Anything ABOVE $72.8K is going to be STRONG for the lower timeframes since that’s where we closed Sunday and the Week. That’s also where the price struggled the first time breaking $73.8K so it makes sense to form SUPPORT. While nothing is preventing price from RETESTING down there - like I mentioned last week anything ABOVE $70.2K puts us in the top half of that range between $64K and $76.2K which will put pressure toward the upside.

This combined with several consecutive Daily closes ABOVE the bottom band of the Downtrend AVWAP should allow the price breathe a bit on it’s way to $76.2K and HIGHER. Structurally there’s not much going on with the price between here and there and even after it’s still pretty boring until about $80K.

The middle band of the Downtrend AVWAP is the same on both 4H and Daily timeframes meaning that $85.2K will be very important to watch. That band is starting to level out a bit but it shows no evidence of curving upward yet. The REACTION to this band later in March/April will let me know if I’ve been correct the past couple weeks or if we’re about to see something NEW. I’m not expecting it to be anything new but it’s possible we see trend break like 2024.

The Daily has been getting hammered since October and best case has been short periods of CONSOLIDATION. Even now to be celebrating a rise to $73.8K after peaking at $97.9K in January is hard to wrap your head around unless you really understand what’s happening for Bitcoin. And that’s the same as always - a transfer from weak hands to strong.

You either understand what’s happening when Bitcoin is going through a Bear Market Year - or you do not. The magic liquidity that will return Bitcoin to untold heights doesn’t enter the markets until next year as far as I’m aware and the longer they take on the Crypto Market Structure Bill the longer people will keep jumping the gun on the actual rise in price. This is how big players shake out weak hands and now is no different.

As I’ve repeated many times - being ABOVE the 50% mark of this range puts pressure on price toward $76.2K. That doesn’t mean that it’s going to rip right through that level but it does hasten the likelihood of an interaction to sooner rather than later. Structurally speaking this is important because it RETESTS the March/April LOWS of 2025 and a final CAPITULATION of those prices would confirm for anyone that bought in 2025 that they need to get out of the asset.

Of course, the rest of us know that Bitcoin will recover by the end of the year but the psychology of short term holders will be tested when price nears $86K. If we can get several weekly closes ABOVE $76.2K then price will need to validate $80K to $86K as SUPPORT or RESISTANCE. And the Weekly SMA has now dropped to $82.8K with no sign of that trend shifting. This means we can expect our interaction with the Weekly SMA to be LOWER than that price.

I really wanted the price to run to the $96K pivot point because of the symmetry of the FAILURE of the $47.6K pivot point in the 2022 cycle. However it looks like we’ve already experienced that REJECTION in December and January and therefore pressure is toward the $76.2K and the previous Fib pivot at $80K (which is no longer registering as current). The Weekly really tells us everything we need to know based on the reactions to those prices - if it reacts STRONGLY then throw out what I’ve said until we see a $96K reaction. But I don’t think it’s going to get there.

Any interaction with the Weekly SMA is going to be brief and then it’ll FAIL like it always does - and there’s no evidence of a RETEST of the Monthly SMA so soon which means any local HIGHS must remain BELOW about $90.1K - making that $96K target structurally improbable. Wealthy people make their money in Bear Markets - they do so by manipulating the emotions of people who can’t navigate this part of the cycle. There is no need for you to panic - I have not begun my DCA yet but will do so once this Q2 migration has fully completed and I get CONFIRMATION of whether price can go HIGHER than $86K or not.

March is already “BULLISH” because any close ABOVE $67K is going to be regarded as UPSIDE - and it is. However the real test will be whether or not it can close ABOVE $76.2K or if it needs to extend that level into April instead. While a close just BELOW may give enough STRENGTH for the full move in April - if we actually saw legitimate STRENGTH it would be a close at $78.5K. That would erase all of the losses in February and is somewhat consistent with previous Bear Markets in terms of candles mostly consuming each other.

Bottom band of the Downtrend AVWAP on the Monthly is currently sitting at $84.8K (slightly BELOW the $85.2K mark on the lower timeframes) and I would imagine that when price returns to that level it will form RESISTANCE. Both because of high selling pressure ABOVE and lack of sufficient volume BELOW. These levels are just very fragile - the price hasn’t really spent enough time validating whether or not it BELONGS there. So now we wait for the conviction of IBIT holders to know whether Bitcoin will set new precedents again or not.

The last 5 months have been savage for downside price momentum so a brief gasp for air is not that unexpected. What remains to be seen is if we’ll see a more mild regression like 2018 that ultimately resulted in more chop going into 2019 and 2020 (this is when Trump was President last don’t forget) or a more sustained breakdown like 2014 and 2022. This cycle we broke the Monthly SMA the earliest we ever have - which could mean we don’t have much time until it RECLAIMS it or it could mean we still have a long time for this full movement to play out.

If the Crypto Market Structure Bill fails by the time its due in July then that will be the Sell the News event most likely. I don’t really care personally - I know that it’s because of the REACTIONS to prices like $80K and $86K and the FAILURE to RECLAIM the Monthly SMA. But if you like News and letting other people dictate your emotional state - cool that’s the one that you’re looking for. I’ll keep sharing the chart.

If there is a significant change in the trend it’ll be fairly obvious. I would rather let the numbers tell me when than the news though.