Price has RECLAIMED the middle band of the Elder VWAP at $80.2K after several weeks climbing toward it. How it REACTS to the middle band of the Downtrend AVWAP at $83.3K will be the most important indicator of trend that we see for many weeks to come. While it took a lot of chop to get through the $79.5K Fib Pivot, the price seems to be doing fine with $80K. Psychologically speaking this is us testing whether that level is a floor or a ceiling - given how important it was during the price drop in April 2025. IF price can CONFIRM $80K as SUPPORT then I’ll be forced to accept that I’ve been wrong about my assumption we will not see $96K or higher this year.

That means this week and next week hold most of the pressure for being able to accurately predict the cycle based on historical analysis. If it starts breaking above that level we just don’t have any historical evidence to support it so we’d be flying blind for the rest of the year. This is a big reason why I don’t personally sell much of my Bitcoin at the end of each cycle, it becomes more difficult over time to time the exact HIGHS or LOWS so you’re better off just making sure you have more of it each cycle than you started that cycle with. For now just pay attention to the continued REACTION at $80K with pullbacks and $83.3K is really where we’ll see if we have enough steam to punch through $86K or if we are about to be RETESTING the Weekly SMA shortly.

One of two things is about to happen - either the price will very predictably FAIL the Weekly SMA sometime this week or next. OR. We’re about to see HIGHER levels as price climbs its way back to $96K or more. This is hard for me to believe personally because I think the $100K psychological level LOSES value if we simply RECLAIM it without effort. October to April may FEEL like a Bear Market but it’s still dramatically shorter than we would normally expect amid massive global uncertainty, rising energy and oil prices, and a very strong stock/real estate market.

I don’t really care what the piece of news is that drops in the next 2 weeks that would bring about this major drop in the price, I will be paying attention to the levels and either that FAILURE comes at $83K or $86K or it is very likely not coming at all and we need to accept a run past $90K is legitimate. That’s hard for me to believe but that is what the chart says pretty clearly if we’re able to from strong SUPPORT at $80K.

I’ll be talking about it on YouTube all week but those middle bands of the AVWAPS are definitely going to be the strongest indicators of trend amidst the noise. The Anchored Volume Profile is still very thin between about $72K and $86K - which means there aren’t as many human beings with STRONG EMOTIONS tied to those levels as there are at prices above and below those levels. This is not in and of itself a bad thing but it is something important to note as this momentum continues. Do we see holders BELOW start taking profits as the price rises into this range? Or do we see the people who bought late last year finally sell their stack? The final test of conviction is usually how we see a Bear Market conclude.

On Wednesday and Thursday the price RETESTED the Daily SMA and price reacted favorably to the upside. Despite initially struggling with the $79.1K Fib pivot and $79.5K as well, the trend seems clear for the moment to the upside. The bollinger bands are contracting a bit on the Daily which could indicate a REVERSAL soon if a period of consolidation doesn’t hit first. And again any consolidation around the $80K level forming as SUPPORT makes higher prices actually considerably more likely than another break down to $76.2K or lower.

I talk about this on YouTube a lot but we really don’t know if we’re going to see a 2022 or a 2018 - in both circumstances we would expect to see lower prices than we do now after a final LOWER HIGH formed in July BUT it’s entirely possible we see that trend break this time into some new formation. If instead we see 2019 just early then we can expect considerably more volatility this part of the cycle than we are usually accustomed to. That’s only important because it will present less opportunities for you to buy Bitcoin at cheap prices. If price keeps closing Daily candles well ABOVE $80K then how are you or Michael Saylor or BlackRock clients going to buy massive amounts of it?

That’s why I think this period of two weeks before the Senate votes on the new Fed chair are critically important. Price may behave completely BULLISH at these levels and ONE statement made in a press release could overturn that momentum immediately. Just like it did in 2014, 2018 and 2022. In 2014 the IRS made Bitcoin legally classified as property, and the price FAILED right after. In 2018 the SEC creates more tension around Crypto regulation, and the price begins to drop rapidly. In 2022, Celsius, Voyager, BlockFi and FTX all collapse causing the price to drop rapidly. Nothing has changed in my opinion and I think the Crypto Market Structure Bill being passed by July is just this year’s example of a major news event that will eventually cause the price to FAIL even if the news itself is fairly BULLISH. Don’t forget to zoom out this year.

My gut instinct is that the Crypto Market Structure Bill WILL pass but it will be heavily weighted toward traditional banks not crypto companies. This is not inherently BULLISH for the space other than just getting to sit at the kids table at Thanksgiving instead of eating a plate in the hallway. It will seem BULLISH immediately but if paired with a key REACTION to a major level around the same time that’s when I would expect a REVERSAL. It’s entirely possible I’m wrong about all this and we’re just going to magically RECLAIM $100K and be back to all time highs sooner than later - but what the hell does that mean for 2027 and 2028?

Because to me if we climb back ABOVE $100K at all in 2026 then we have functionally no way at all to predict how price will behave other than 2019. And what we see in 2018-2019 was more dramatic volatility to the upside paired with price returning toward the 70% retracement line. For us this cycle that would be our interaction with $59.9K. If we are going to see 2018-2019 then we would expect price to chop much HIGHER and then eventually return back to RETEST $60K sometime next year. OR if we see 2022 then July would be the beginning of price continuing to break down into October to January of next year. I don’t really care which one it is but that’s the best we have for historical evidence.

Historically speaking we would expect to see MULTIPLE FAILURES of the Weekly SMA over the course of a Bear Market year. We have already seen that in January and March and now we have seen it RECLAIMED for the first time since the October HIGHS. While 2014 did see an extended period of 12 weeks ABOVE the Weekly SMA, our most promiment other example is 3 weeks in 2022 that ultimately both resulted in downside momentum. So it really just depends on those news catalysts. On paper it seems like the banks launching their own stablecoins and flooding the market with liquidity is a BULLISH signal. BUT when the CME launched Bitcoin Futures it literally the price that day in 2017. So I am expecting a rise into the passing of that Bill in July and then the price should start to sell off right after that announcement is made.

This won’t be obvious on the chart IF we continue to see price form SUPPORT ABOVE $80K as I mentioned. Then it will really feel like we can go nowhere but up, because by that point we would have a whole years worth of Bear Market candles (3-4) in monthly succession rather than scattered throughout the year. This is NOT the most likely scenario but global uncertainty may allow for the smokescreen for manipulation to allow prices to behave this strange way. So this is not investing advice, I can’t tell you when the EXACT best time to BUY is - but I can tell you it’s never a good time to SELL Bitcoin while the world is finding new excuses to buy more of it every day the Earth makes a spin.

I see a lot of people talking about the MSTR/STRC element of this narrative - being the billions of dollars of cash they are spending on buying Bitcoin each month. But billions is still a very small portion of several trillion, and therefore to me it’s more an indicator that demand is present rather than all consuming. The stablecoin narrative is a bit more all encompassing to me, because we’re talking about Chase, Citi, etc - where most of the money is held outside of investment companies. So when stablecoins fully go live and you’re getting throwaway direct mail offers from Chase to buy x amount of stablecoins for y amount of bonus stablecoins - that’s when we’ll see the price really start to rocket HIGHER.

Because the money has to come from somewhere - and that’s human beings and corporations (even governments) on the other end of the Buy/Sell button deciding to press BUY over and over again. If that just starts now then it’s unlikely it will become EUPHORIC again so quickly OR that it will sustain that euphoria for more than a small period of time. And that will be fairly obvious on the chart depending on whether or not price finds SUPPORT at $80K, $83K and $86K. It’s hard for me to believe personally that we see HIGHER than that right now BUT it would mean we’re going to see 2018-2019 cycle rather than more like 2022. All of it comes down to whether we keep closing ABOVE or BELOW the Weekly SMA which has officially broken BELOW the $76.2K Fibonacci Pivot point. (I’ll break that down more in today’s YouTube since I’ve rambled here)

It doesn’t matter that May itself is BULLISH or BEARISH but the pattern of 3 Bullish Monthly candles cannot be found in any other Bear Market. In the Pre-Halving year? Absolutely. Halving Year? Oh most definitely. Post Halving - you already know. But the Bear Market years, 2014, 2018, 2022 you can barely find more than 3-4 Green Monthly candles in the first place let alone all stacked together. So that means the PROBABILITY is HIGHER for Bitcoin to drop BELOW the close for April. That does not mean it has to do so DRAMATICALLY but any close BELOW $76.3K would fulfill that normal expectation. What we would expect to see more likely is a WICK slightly HIGHER than April that ultimately resolves to the downside - most likely a RETEST of $76.2K again.

I would imagine we’ll have more evidence of this by May 15th when the Senate votes on the Fed Chair. It won’t resolve anything necessarily but it’s one of those narratives that’s been kicking around for several months and when they come to fruition one way or the other, something like Bitcoin will be one of the earliest things to react to the news. The actual first meeting with the new chair doesn’t happen until June I believe but I’m sure that person will have a press conference sometime before that that investors will use as indication of sentiment toward market trend and there will be a reaction to it.

Bitcoin is BEST when its BORING. It doesn’t feel like people are all that excited about Bitcoin right now and that means historically you should be focused on your accumulation strategy, even if that means taking short term losses on your position. I personally have not restarted my DCA yet and will likely wait until July to do so. I’m still taking Perpetual trades and Futures trades when they present themselves but in terms of SPOT buying I just think there’s more likelihood that we see another drop to $60K than there is that we don’t have any other downside. The cost of being wrong about this of course is not having enough Bitcoin going into this next cycle. This is the game we all must play my friends.

I think the trend will be a lot more clear by the middle of May. It’ll either obviously be ABOVE $86K OR it will be RETESTING $76.2K and losing the Weekly SMA. It won’t be confusing which one it is once we’ve gotten there. The possibility remains that we just consolidate for that time but since we fought so hard to get to $80K I don’t think it’s as likely that we just comfortably sit here rather than seeing a major bias shift in investors. I’ll be breaking it down on YouTube as always with videos every Sunday, Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Thanks for watching.

Don’t get distracted by all the narratives and the hype. Just make sure you have a solid plan to keep accumulating regardless of the price - because the only narrative that hasn’t changed - is Bitcoin is more likely to one day hit $1 million per coin than it is to hit ZERO.