The 4H timeframe is stuck in between both AVWAPs that I talk about all the time - that being at $80.2K and $83.3K (call it $80K and $83K). To me this indicates that the price is seeking CONFIRMATION of a breakout ABOVE or BELOW through a short period of CONSOLIDATION. Psychologically speaking the $80K and $73.8K are the most important targets right now and it’s not unreasonable for a RETEST of the lower end to still result in one final attempt HIGHER - that historically speaking should still FAIL this stage in a Bear market.

Price appears to be STRUGGLING with $82.5K and may have just formed a double peak that could result in downside pressure. 4H SMA is still upsloping and for the most part my opinion remains the same that a run to $86K is not off the table for now. It just depends whether market makers want to wipe out the leveraged shorts now with that gap HIGHER OR if we’re going to chop back toward $73.8K again to really fill up the volume for either bias - before inevitably price should head LOWER unless the stablecoin initiatives with the major banks somehow magically go online at peak capacity from day one. Not impossible, but to me much less likely than a rogue news story tanking price.

As I say in every YouTube video, I don’t argue with the Anchored VWAP. I’ve been talking about this rise to $83K-$86K since February and I have no reason to assume that indicator will not show momentum once it appears. A break ABOVE this range would propel momentum toward $98K-$100K but it’s hard for me to believe we’re going to hit those targets now despite STRENGTH in the stock and real estate markets. I can acknowledge that I may be WRONG about this - I just have a feeling that news companies hit their “Bitcoin Will NEVER Go Back BELOW $100K” narrative for a reason - and I think that narrative STRENGTHENS if the price FAILS at its next attempt to RECLAIM that level instead. Again I can acknowledge I may be wrong about that and the market makers just want to pump price so everyone misses the rally - but why?

In my mind, JP Morgan Chase makes MORE money if the price of Bitcoin is DISTRESSED when they start really pumping their Stablecoin product. How would they make more money if Bitcoin is back ABOVE $100K again? Are people more likely to buy, borrow, steal at $50K Bitcoin or $100K Bitcoin - amidst other market uncertainty and chaos. To me, I think JP Morgan Chase makes more money if the Buy button for Bitcoin looks attractive. And they WILL offer crazy bonuses for anyone transferring x amount of Stablecoins - because that’s what the US Government and Federal Reserve are directly incentivizing them to do.

Until proven otherwise, the 4 year cycle is still very much alive. If we break far ABOVE $86K then we can acknowledge there may be a significant shift from what we can anticipate from the historical analysis. But it is more statistically likely that we will head back LOWER even if those lows over time continue to get dragged HIGHER than we expect. That being primarily whether we’ll see NEW LOWS at $44K or LOWER or if we’re just going to RETEST $60K again for CONFIRMATION of true lows.

We’ve stayed ABOVE the Daily SMA all of May so far and it’s currently climbing toward the $79.1K Fib pivot - once it gets ABOVE that it’ll form as SUPPORT. That doesn’t mean significant volume can’t break it to the downside but it will give us an early signal as to that momentum returning rather than feeling like it’s coming out of nowhere. More simply speaking - $80K, $83K and $86K are all important just like $74K, $76K and $78K are. In my opinion, $74K, $80K and $86K are the most clear of that bunch but the rest will be crucial for a while.

Don’t forget to be patient during major range RETESTS like this one. This is something I’ve been writing/speaking about for several months now so it’s not necessary to treat it like the LAST OPPORTUNITY to make a decision - it’s not. We are about to experience a major shift with the new Fed Chair and that will be reflected by the markets - but being too married to one outcome instead of just accepting reality as it presents itself - will not earn you more Satoshis.

That’s why I prefer to focus on the fundamentals - which means any time we are BELOW the Weekly or Monthly SMA that DCA is a viable strategy. We have now broken ABOVE the Weekly SMA as I’ll talk about in the next timeframe, but that does not mean we have recovered it indefinitely, it just means that window of opportunity is not always present, so make good use when it is. So pay attention to a breakout ABOVE $83.3K or BELOW $79.1K on the Daily.

The trend can remain illogical for a long time. I have every reason to believe that stocks can run until at least July-October - if we go by the 2007 peak then it would be October and the 2000 peak was in March before it finally fell off a cliff in September. That looked like higher highs would continue until the moment they did not - and I can’t shake the feeling that the MMA fight on the White House Lawn is just a neon sign to the world that the markets are about to shift dramatically BEARISH. I know those are not correlated directly to the price of Bitcoin but I just think Bitcoin is LESS attractive when stocks and real estate look healthy, I think it FAILS as soon as those other assets show weakness in any way.

But Bitcoin is a sponge. It is designed to survive and EXPAND these contractions of capital with more efficiency than most capital assets. So I really see it as all a healthy response, whether it rises or drops again now doesn’t really matter. The writing is on the wall already - Bitcoin is here to stay. That means over a long enough time period it’s more likely to hit $1 million per coin than zero per coin assuming the positive narratives continue to stack. And the US Military describing Bitcoin as a crucial asset in terms of cybersecurity - which to me is just an excuse for them to funnel money into it without actually stating it’s about the money. All that matters is holding onto Bitcoin before the money printer goes brrrr.

Last week closed just BELOW the middle band of the Downtrend AVWAP and at the moment the price is going to regard that as a FAILURE. But as long as the price remains ABOVE $78.5K this week then technically price is still BULLISH. However a close BELOW there will obviously be pretty BEARISH in interpretation and would pull us back toward the $76.2K Fibonacci Pivot. The Weekly SMA has now dropped BELOW that pivot for the first time and is sitting at $75.9K as of the time of my writing this newsletter. It does look like the SMA is SLOWING its DESCENT and may be rounding or CONSOLIDATING and this is definitely worth paying close attention to over the rest of May.

The only historical context we have for multiple weeks ABOVE the Weekly SMA is in 2014, which means we could see another 9ish weeks above it theoretically, however that’s the only instance on the chart like that, every other time we break the Weekly SMA in a Bear Market we break it for 2-3 weeks. We are now starting week 4 and we should know soon whether we have momentum to stay ABOVE or whether $76.2K will pull us down LOWER.

I think the other important factor to keep in mind is the top Bollinger Band on the Weekly timeframe - it’s currently at $93.8K and we don’t have any historical context for a BREAK back ABOVE that band during this time in the cycle. That doesn’t it CANNOT break it, just that we’ve never seen it before and that would put undue RESISTANCE on that theoretical RISE to $96K or HIGHER. The middle band of the Downtrend AVWAP is still currently telling us price is not ready to break ABOVE $83K.

If price were to break this paradigm it will likely come because of some unexpected liquidity event - and the market is already aware of these narratives. When the bond market flips the Fed that may be the moment that creates tremendous liquidity for Bitcoin again but I’m still inclined to believe that no matter where the Bitcoin price is when stocks finally peak - if the entire stock market is dropping then Bitcoin is also going to drop. Leverage seems to be at its highest point since October of 2023 which did result in tremendous momentum to the upside, but it’s too early for us to assume that upside is just going to resume without any pullbacks.

The monthly is probably the easiest story to interpret and tell. In a Bear Market we expect to normally see 3-4 GREEN Monthly candles and the rest are all RED. This is Month number 3 in a row of Green candles currently, which has never happened before. In pre-halving years it happens and there’s some indication we may have been pulled forward in the cycle to closer to 2019 rather than assuming a continuation of 2022. However again, the monthly candle and where it closes is going to be our biggest indicator about that.

If May closes ABOVE $76.3K (right at the Fib pivot) then it either gives it up right away once June starts or we have to accept that the paradigm may have shifted finally from the 4 year cycle analysis that serves us very well. Sometimes the most likely outcome is the best outcome to position for. Long term that’s still a BULLISH Bitcoin - but can you survive the chop that’s going to perpetuate this year once the old trends start breaking? That’s what matters.

I believe that Bitcoin was designed to fit squarely within the existing economic structure - that means when it FAILS, it is doing so by design not by some oversight. Just like the tides come and go, the price as well will swell to news highs and seek out old lows before continuing on. That means I just want to hold onto it until the primary narratives are fulfilled and then at that point I just need to access whether or not the important ones are still true. And to me, as long as the US Government continues to print money - which we know they are about to do later this year - then I have to assume the price of Bitcoin will continue to trend up.

All that I’m really concerned about is improving my win rate with my BTC Perpetuals/Futures trading, and managing my cash position until such a time that I take another lump sum investment into Bitcoin. I have either missed that window and we don’t return to $60K or LOWER - or I am correct and we will return there and I’ll have time to allocate accordingly. This is why I don’t sell most of my Bitcoin each cycle, it’s just easier to hold onto it than to pretend you’re some expert on macroeconomics. I have a really good track record of understanding the price over time but I’d rather still have it than risk flipping it and missing a key time window.

You either believe in the long term for Bitcoin or it’s just another trade. If it’s just a trade then analyze it relative to your other ones, but if you believe in what it allows then don’t get rid of yours.