On Friday price broke back BELOW the middle band of the Elder AVWAP at $80.2K after a third FAILURE to break ABOVE $82.5K. Anyone who watches my YouTube videos knows that the AVWAP is always the first tool I use to identify the trend momentum and when we give up a key level like that we need to be very clear about what levels prevent us from trending to the lower band now (That lower band is sitting at $60.1K). As I’m writing this price is RETESTING the $76.6K Fib Pivot and if price breaks BELOW $75.1K we would expect LOWER.

That means we need a STRONG REACTION to the 4H SMA at $78.2K otherwise another FAILURE there will be exactly what the price needs to push to $75.1K. If it does so then $73.8K is the next most important psychological level but we can’t ignore the $76.2K Fib Pivot that I’ll cover more in the Weekly timeframe. Keep in mind that anything BELOW $76.3K flips the month BEARISH and then the momentum can shift to the downside pretty violently so pay attention.

I’ve been talking about this for a while, since January/February I’ve been convinced we would rise toward $83K-$86K and it’s looking like we’ve FAILED that first attempt to break to $86K and it remains to be seen whether or not we’ll get another attempt. History tells us that a break LOWER is more likely but if we can see STRENGTH at $76.3K then it is possible that we get another BOUNCE higher than $80K for SUPPORT.

The bottom Bollinger band of the 4H timeframe is starting to flatten so we may have seen the local LOWS for now but structurally speaking we would expect that to break like tissue paper if we can’t get STRENGTH at $76.3K. I would assume we’ll have CONFIRMATION of that within the next few days if not literally today by the time I record the YouTube vid.

Even as I just wrote that last paragraph the price is already starting to break toward $76.3K so I would expect we see a big move very soon.

Price had been chopping at the Daily SMA Wednesday-Friday before fully giving it up over the weekend and allowing for that Weekly close to drop. The bottom Bollinger band for the Daily is sitting at $75.7K so there’s a possibility that it shows some STRENGTH there but combined with the other local levels showing WEAKNESS there’s very little to prevent the price from dropping for a while. Structurally there’s nothing else going on for the Daily timeframe until $73.8K (the March 2024 ETF ATH I talk about all the time on YouTube) and that would be where we would look for potential STRENGTH back to the upside, but it’s also where we’d see clear signs of WEAKNESS and INVALIDATION.

While the Daily timeframe is very important, if the higher timeframes are starting to show significant weakness then it’s not going to matter where the Daily SMA is - it can continue dropping for an unreasonable amount of time. Historically speaking we’re still exactly on track for what I’ve been expecting and what we would continue to expect at this stage of the cycle (more on YT).

The Daily timeframe is most likely where we’ll see CONFIRMATION of the higher timeframe trends. Again pay close attention to $76.3K because WEAKNESS there can send the price much LOWER. But it will also be on the Daily timeframe that we can see the momentum from SUPPORT (or RESISTANCE) at $73.8K forming the next leg of the move for Bitcoin.

Historically speaking we don’t have any examples of 3 consecutive BULLISH green candles in a Bear Market year - we are on month 3. So it’s more probable that we see a RED candle for May than a green one - and the only requirement to fulfill that is a close BELOW $76.3K. And again any break BELOW there is going to be regarded as WEAKNESS and will likely pull the price considerably LOWER. $73.8K being the last hope for a bounce otherwise we’re headed to $70.3K or much lower if it can’t hold.

We can keep in mind that the Clarity Act is moving forward with ZERO Stablecoin Yield AND no FDIC insurance on Stablecoins. While I’m sure companies like Coinbase are just thankful to be moving forward, this is not an inherently BULLISH signal for the Crypto industry itself and it’s a big reason why I believe we’ll see more WEAKNESS once the Bill is finalized in July. Essentially I believe the market has already priced in the fact that it will get passed and it’s showing us now it’s not good enough. Only thing that really changes that is a sincere bounce HIGHER at $73.8K.

There are two primary things you need to watch this Week for the price. How does it behave at $76.3K and how does it behave when it RETESTS the Weekly SMA? As I mentioned in yesterday’s YouTube video, we expected the Weekly SMA to continue dropping and it’s now at $74.9K - putting further DOWNSIDE pressure on the price if and when it shows WEAKNESS at $76.3K. Functionally speaking price wants CONFIRMATION of SUPPORT/RESISTANCE at these levels and this time it should be more clear than the first break in the middle of April.

As I’m writing this price is RETESTING $76.3K so we should know very shortly if it’s a strong enough level for SUPPORT or if we’re about to start breaking down toward $73.8K. But a RETEST of the Weekly SMA in general typically would indicate a FAILURE at this stage of the cycle. Even in the 2014 anomaly I break down on YouTube (middle of the videos) we would still expect another interaction with the Weekly SMA to result in further DOWNSIDE pressure.

The Weekly timeframe is going to be more clear about the momentum compared to any of the other timeframes right now. While the monthly just dipped BELOW the April close, it’s still too early to tell if momentum is ready to fully shift but it’ll be obvious after another 2 Weekly closes. It’s only Monday though so a RETEST this early on such a key level at $76.3K definitely puts more pressure toward the downside unless we’re able to see a dramatic amount of volume step in now. I did see Michael Saylor and Strategy bought another $2 Billion worth of Bitcoin so that could fuel some hope for a rally again now but it’s still pennies when we consider the overall size of the asset class so I wouldn’t hold to hope.

It looks like the first interaction with $76.3K is not fully ready to break down yet, but without significant STRENGTH returning, we would expect another attempt to be enough to break BELOW in a meaningful way. Pretty much just pay attention to how the price behaves around $76.3K because that’s going to determine where the price wants to go next.

It’s not complicated for the Monthly right now, either price is ABOVE $76.3K or it isn’t. If it is, then we have to show STRENGTH at $80K and $83K if we have any hopes of breaking $86K and new local highs. If the price is BELOW then we would expect real weakness to start showing because there’s nothing preventing the price from testing how deep into the April prices it can cut. That could even be as LOW as $68.5K (the middle band of the Downtrend AVWAP) if the momentum really flips to the downside during this week.

Currently May is flat, the entire candle is just a wick right now, that’s not a BULLISH signal. Technically speaking we just need a red candle this month, so there’s nothing preventing it from continuing to drop but then climbing back up to $76.3K other than just the limitation of time, only so many days left. Given more uncertainty around whether the Fed is going to cut, pause or now even increase interests rates in June - we really can’t predict how the market will start to price in that fear until we see it in early assets like Bitcoin itself.

You either believe that the cycle is repeating like it always does or you believe that we’re seeing a new paradigm. A new paradigm looks like STRENGTH ABOVE $86K and the old one just looks like WEAKNESS here. And right now it’s looking a lot more like weakness is the way the chart wants to start swinging, but it could just be another fakeout before we make another final attempt at $86K. I’ll talk about that more on YouTube today but basically you’re betting on a Little League team to beat the New York Yankees if you think we’re about to see new highs for Bitcoin.

I don’t think it’s a bad thing for Bitcoin to show WEAKNESS here - I think it’s normal for it to behave this way. I wouldn’t be concerned about exiting my position here, I’m just focused on analyzing the most likely ranges on the chart where I can start to buy more of it. If the price shows more like 2018-2019 then that means our best bet is another eventual RETEST around $60K - but if it starts breaking down like 2022 then we can expect considerably lower than that price. Fingers crossed we do.

Bitcoin is best when it’s boring and it’s about to feel very boring compared to the stock market if it keeps showing WEAKNESS here.