Right now the 4H timeframe is desperately seeking CONFIRMATION of around $77.3K as either SUPPORT or RESISTANCE. While a key FAILURE there last Friday is what brought the price down LOWER - ultimately enough volume returned on Saturday to RECLAIM the $76.3K Fibonacci Pivot and close ABOVE the 4H SMA once again. At these levels we should expect every few thousand to be important psychologically - meaning $76K, $78K and $80K should all feel pivotal on the chart even if there are more specific targets that present as well.

That means we need to see $78K form as SUPPORT instead of RESISTANCE or we can expect another break BELOW $76.3K to RETEST the Weekly SMA again. The 4H Bollinger Bands are EXPANDING at the moment so it’s important to note that price still wants to RECLAIM the middle band of the Elder VWAP at around $80.2K and will be drawn there unless significant RESISTANCE is found. It is however important to note that we’ve now seen LOWER LOWS on this dip than we did at the end of April which may put more pressure toward $73.8K.

I repeat the same levels all the time because they’re typically reliable, that’s why I like Bitcoin so much in the first place. So when we dropped to $74.2K last week that was the price clearly stating that $73.8K is currently SUPPORT and sent us back to RETEST $76.3K for Weekly close. Since price closed well ABOVE that pivot now we are seeing STRENGTH to begin the week that will evaporate as soon as $78K shows WEAKNESS.

With some more clarity arriving about the Iran conflict this week it may relieve some pressure from the Bitcoin price but ultimately nothing has changed if the price can’t get ABOVE $83K. It will still end up resulting in a FAILURE and BREAK of the Weekly SMA even if it chops all week first. It is important to note as well that we’ve also seen LOWER HIGHS on this last part of the dip than the end of April and the historical bias would be for May to close BEARISH even if slightly - as opposed to seeing 3 GREEN months in a row in a Bear Market (which has never happened).

That doesn’t mean it won’t happen and obviously we have until Sunday and anything can happen between now and then. But the most important level to get CONFIRMATION on is $78K and whether that is determined as SUPPORT or RESISTANCE will dictate trend into June.

While the 4H timeframe is communicating LOWER LOWS and LOWER HIGHS, the Daily is mostly telling the same story with an upcoming RETEST of the Daily SMA being possible around $78.8K just BELOW the $79.1K Fib Pivot. That would be the most likely REJECTION point we’d see this week before next Newsletter and will be a key indicator of where the trend wants to express. That Daily SMA will likely drop LOWER before we interact with it and it looks like around $77.5K is also going to be a key level that needs CONFIRMATION.

The Daily Bollinger Bands are EXPANDING very dramatically right now, which doesn’t really give us clear enough information on WHERE the price wants to head but it does tell us to be patient while it makes up its mind so to speak. It really comes down to whether you believe the seasonality of the Bear Market will hold or if for some reason this cycle is different and now we’re only going up and to the right from now on. That doesn’t make much sense to me but in a post ETF world we’ve seen other precedents change and it’s not impossible.

But we can stay disconnected from the Daily SMA for a long period of time and we spent all of April and half of May ABOVE it before breaking BELOW. If we can’t break back ABOVE that’s going to put pressure for it keep dropping BELOW for a period of several weeks - again this is my base case for June. Everyone’s heard the phrase, “Sell in May and go away” and while that typically refers to stocks it may be Bitcoin that feels it more with how things are looking. However it’s just as likely we see STRENGTH at the Daily SMA and then nothing is preventing price from rising until we see another $83K RETEST.

The Daily and the 4H tell a very similar story now but the bias is toward the downside as long as the Daily SMA is still curved downward - especially if we get our interaction with it BELOW that $79.1K Fib Pivot. Assuming it can show STRENGTH there, price will be drawn back to get CONFIRMATION of $82.5K and a FAILURE there would send the price tumbling immediately but to the contrary STRENGTH there may be enough to send price ABOVE the AVWAP level of $83K across timeframes and land us closer to the top of the Anchored Volume Profile gap at $86K. While $86K is not CONFIRMATION of a Bull trend - it’s very close.

To me we’re not back in a Bull Market until we’re ABOVE $96K and like I talk about in the YouTube videos - it’s somewhat unlikely we see that while the top band of the Bollinger Band on the Weekly timeframe is still sloped DOWNWARD at $88.8K (much LOWER than the last time I mentioned it). That means price is historically unlikely to even reach that point let alone to be making significant moves back ABOVE it. Of course that can always change but it’ll be STRENGTH at $79.1K that tells us and a break ABOVE $82.5K that actually allows that run to express itself fully.

Despite last week Wicking through both the $76.3K Fib Pivot AND the Weekly SMA, price did manage to close ABOVE that Fib Pivot enough to see this Bullish momentum into the start of the week. However, there is ZERO historical precedent for Bullish continuation once we have seen a BREAK and RETEST of the Weekly SMA during this stage of a Bear Market. Our only evidence for that is 2014 (as I talk about in every YouTube video) and even then that move still ultimately expressed to the DOWNSIDE despite 12 Weeks ABOVE the SMA. So technically speaking we could see the price chop around here for a while but every other instance on the chart still indicates this move will end BEARISH.

A divergence from that trend looks like STRENGTH ABOVE $83K into $86K as I mentioned and the Weekly SMA looks like it has no intentions of slowing its DESCENT - with it now sitting at $74.3K where last week it was ABOVE $75K. Every other time we’ve had a BREAK and RETEST of the Weekly SMA it’s been expressed in 2-3 weeks, so the fact that we’re now in Week 6 is definitely worth paying attention to. Because it’s difficult to assert whether we’re more likely to see an extension like 2014 or whether we’re already on our way back down and we just don’t know it yet until whatever News story tells us so.

As I mentioned before, we have no precedent for the price breaking ABOVE the Weekly Bollinger Band at this stage of the cycle - which means functionally speaking price should not be able to break ABOVE $88.8K - this obviously being crucial for being back in a Bull Market. And we have no shot at that unless we CONFIRM SUPPORT at $78K, $80K and $83K respectively and each level may end up being a significant battle. Across timeframes $83K is highly important so if we can’t express HIGHER than $78K and $80K the price is going to take the hint that $83K is not on the table right now and start to head back toward $76.3K.

The more times we interact with $76.3K the more price will likely test LOWER and it’s only a matter of time until a FAILURE at $73.8K sends the price cascading LOWER toward previous range LOWS of around $64K. I was not in the markets in 2014 but to me this excitement/confusion around the Crypto Market Structure Bill seems very similar to the hype around the IRS confirming Bitcoin as property back in June of 2014. While there was more negative catalysts with the Mt Gox crash and we have not currently seen an equivalent Bearish event - it can be inferred that this News event is simply propping up the price until CONFIRMATION and then price will likely sell off once News is in.

It’s always nice when a Month ends on a Sunday because that lines it up with the Daily and Weekly timeframes perfectly - while it makes SUPPORT and RESISTANCE on the Lower timeframes a bit less clear when you zoom out it should make key levels more obvious when moving forward. The bar is pretty LOW, any close ABOVE $76.3K will be regarded as BULLISH - and again would set a new precedent as we’ve never seen 3 consecutive Green Monthly candles in a Bear Market before. However I’m inclined to the think the Monthly Wick and FAILURE at $83K may ultimately pull the price LOWER. Even though currently we have seen the candle pattern flip from an Inverted Hammer to a Shooting Star - back to an Inverted Hammer - which is potentially BULLISH.

As we are seeing that after 2 months of upside momentum it’s hard for me to believe that will continue indefinitely but it’ll be because of key closes ABOVE $80K and $83K respectively that allows that momentum to carry any HIGHER. It is worth noting that the Monthly SMA is still climbing HIGHER which could also carry the price HIGHER but it remains to be seen if we’ll see another more VOLATILE repeat of the 2018-2019 cycle where HIGHS were much less predictable. Or if we’re simply seeing an extension of the normal trend we’d expect to see in 2022 or 2014 where the price begins to FAIL again very soon. At the end of the day this is why we hold a Bitcoin stack separate from whatever you’re trading because nobody actually knows - myself included.

We’ve seen this Bear Market start earlier than expected and break BOTH the Weekly and Monthly SMA much earlier than we typically would. So it’s POSSIBLE that we’ve already seen the worst of the Downside and are going to passively trend upward thanks to Michael Saylor and BlackRock. But with Stocks and Real Estate still performing so strongly that does not give that much incentive for people to take profits from those and reallocate to Bitcoin - which is what we’d need to see here to get the volume back ABOVE $86K. And if it can’t show STRENGTH there then it’s not going to get any chance at going HIGHER than that point obviously.

The key thing to ask yourself now is what’s your plan? If Bitcoin continues to rise here - how are you going to play that? What levels would you consider to get back into the uptrend or which levels would you want to be SHORTING in hopes of a Reversal? As I said the Bull Market isn’t back until $96K or HIGHER and that’s assuming we can break ABOVE $86K and $88K which I have yet to see enough evidence for. Right now it’s pretty simple - we just have to wait for a RETEST of $78K and $80K and I would imagine we’ll see both before I write next week’s Newsletter. Make sure to check out the YouTube videos as well.

And I finally released my ebook about Navigating the Bitcoin cycles and the key narratives that drive momentum so go check that out.