This one only blew up because of timing - anyone who follows me on Threads knows I write the same type of analysis every day (switching it up next year) and because the market had just dropped so much I think it was fear that was leading so many people from Instagram to click on that analysis on Threads.

So far however, I was correct about what I said in that Thread. $80.5K was the exact SUPPORT that price ended up finding and we have thus far seen a higher attempt fail and are currently consolidating and are waiting to see if capitulation will begin in earnest in the new year. Monday’s Newsletter went over the close TODAY on Wednesday, December 31 - will impact all of 2026.

And for the record I still don’t anticipate a $200K Bitcoin for 2026 but I’ll cover that in more depth in an upcoming video on YouTube so stay tuned for that.

Anyone who was following me on Threads back then knows I was talking a lot about $117.6K and $106.7K as two CRITICAL levels to pay attention and when we FAILED both of them I knew that price was headed LOWER.

I used the Anchored Volume Profile and Fibonacci Pivot Points to find those levels and anyone can do it themselves for free on TradingView.

The tricky thing about social media and content in general is I have no control over how many of you will read this Newsletter or any individual Thread that I post - so all I can do is keep showing up and teaching you what I know while continuing to sharpen my skills with Analysis over time.

Two days before this I had written about how the chart looked to me like it was replaying the exact same playbook as 2017 - despite everyone else at the time talking about how similar it was looking to the 2021 cycle. This was before I had that many followers on Threads and long before I made the Bitcoin Escape Plan brand and channel to start posting more Analysis.

Price reached its local low April and printed SUPPORT on April 16th - I don’t think I’ll ever have another piece of Analysis quite as on time as this one. We then broke out of the range in late April with a strong push into May as I said. Though we did hit $100K in the middle of May which was quicker than I thought - and then it was rangebound before breaking higher in July.

Then the first major pullback began in August and went into September as I expected it to. ETH and some Alts were showing STRENGTH at that time but we all know how that turned out - most of the market is bleeding still. And we DID see a Q4 rally just not as high as we had all been hoping. So technically I was still correct just not quite to the highest levels people were hoping for.

I don’t think at this time that NFTs will rally the way I anticipated though they will return in prominence at some point for sure. I think now the Stablecoins narrative which was not on the table when I wrote this - is taking more center stage and that will ultimately dictate the flow of capital more than the speculative phases we had been accustomed to. And I was write about people selling higher highs while the price continued to plummet lower into Q4.

If there’s any human being brazen enough to run the same economic policy as their previous Presidential term - it’s Donald J Trump. Who was President during 2017? Donald J Trump. For me this literally me get an accurate picture of my expectation for the year from as early as late February when I first privately noticed the pattern before writing about it publicly in early March. I had no clue I was going to be that correct.

I WAS expecting higher than $126K but given the context of the Stablecoin Acts and where we are in the present business cycle - I can now recognize why Price was NEVER going to reach the meteoric price targets that everyone was saying for $180K-$210K+ (myself included). There was simply not enough liquidity for that push and what volume we did have kept getting completely wiped out in massive liquidations. The reality is these markets are still small enough to manipulate and you either learn how to read those major moves or you keep losing money.

At the time this was a VERY controversial take on what was happening with the price. We were hitting new all time highs and a lot of people were not happy about me making claims that Price could end up going LOWER. And I still believe in that red line that I have drawn there indicating $61.5K IS a Price that we will likely revisit at some point in 2026 - even if we close slightly ABOVE it.

I really can’t highlight enough the last statement that I made here. Bitcoin is math not just money - a lot of times these levels NEED to be CONFIRMED before the Price can move forward. I can’t explain the math as well as I’d like but the Chart explains the math pretty clearly once you know what to look for.

For me this one was really simple. Multiple news stations and media outlets had run headlines specifically to the effect of “Bitcoin Will NEVER Go Back Below $100K Again!” - which to me was an obvious sign it would. I don’t like watching news to make decisions but when I saw enough of the same narrative being pumped out I knew it was important.

$100K is the most important psychological level for the Price in this cycle, so it makes sense that the price would spend a lot of time there. In fairness I did think we wouldn’t see it drop BELOW until 2026 but I didn’t publicly say a time here so I was correct with how I worded it I guess. Overall I would expect the story of 2026 to be “Can Bitcoin Get Back ABOVE $100K?” and they’ll run something like that most of the year.

I was so green in my ability to use Technical Analysis at the time of this recording - all of my predictions were based on what I call “Napkin Math” - which is math so simple you could write it on any scrap of paper and use that math to anticipate the price of Bitcoin. Here I stated that I didn’t believe the price would go higher than $250K in 2025 and where did it go? Half that.

I also believed price would go as LOW as $10K-$12K at that time even though I stated publicly here $13.5K but really I just showed ONE iteration of the math and I’ll explain the rest of this rationale briefly below but I’ll go into more depth on the idea behind this in a future Newsletter outside of this Report.

Napkin Math is very simple. I take a look at what the highs are each cycle and use those to anticipate the lows based on the overall pattern of the chart. I’ve added an image below with non exact numbers as a reference.

The final figure in this incorrect obviously with the true equation being closer to an 8X from the 2022 bottom instead of a 13X like I anticipated. But 13X represented the HIGHEST that I could believe the Price going - not actually the minimum for where I expected it to go. I’m not going to claim I understand the math well enough to know the exact level because I don’t and neither does anyone else - but this tool is very helpful for getting a rough estimate for the price YEARS ahead of time.

Let me know if you want me to dive into more detail on this.

Thank you so much to everyone who supported me and my content this year and I hope it helped you stack more Satoshis - and even more next year.