Right now on the 4H we are seeing massive COMPRESSION of the Bollinger Bands - subscribers already know that means a big move is on its way, which way however is less certain. On Sunday after the Daily close price tagged $78.8K before REJECTING $78.6K (the September Monthly Open) hitting our first major target for November. Now either the price will form SUPPORT after another RETEST of the 4H SMA at $77.6K as I talked about with 4HR Break Room Members this morning. Or price will COLLAPSE at the RETEST and head back in the direction of $76.8K to tag the lower Bollinger Band for another RETEST of $76.3K and possibly the September LOWS of $74.9K. It’s important to note that the Middle Band of the Elder AVWAP is also at $77.6K about $40 lower than the 4H SMA - meaning we have extra momentum one direction or the other off a REACTION to that price.

When price tagged $76.3K and $76.5K last week the wicks stopped there and the bodies of the candles formed closer to $76.8K which gives us some indication of BULLISH pressure going into the week. Though the Midterms could dramatically alter whichever direction price starts moving in a very short period of time. So this period of COMPRESSION on the 4H Bollinger Bands will not last and I am not exposed to either side of the trade until the trend has made itself clear. $76.6K and $78.8K are both showing up as relevant 4H Fib Pivots just outside of the Bollinger Bands themselves and both are completely reasonable as BOUNCE points. Fairly normal for price to trend to one side of the bands and then snap aggressively to the other.

Bitcoin has dropped after the Midterm Elections in 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 - but I’m sure this time is different. In 2010 it was not to new LOWS and the price recovered quickly (the market cap was less than $5 million at the time). 2014 new LOWS. 2018 new LOWS. 2022 new LOWS. I’ve been talking about a Weekly SMA RETEST closer to $73.8K now for several on YouTube so it should be no surprise to you that’s still my opinion. Until we see that I’m not convinced that $76.3K is sufficient enough SUPPORT given the context of where we now are in the cycle after the initial tag of the Upper Weekly Bollinger Band late September.

This means we have entered A Bull Market, not THE Bull Market. Totally normal for price to swing back and forth from the Weekly SMA all the way back to the Upper Weekly Bollinger Band but structurally on the lower timeframes it will be quite difficult for Bitcoin to mount another move HIGHER without breaking $83.6K and $86K as RESISTANCE and flipping them as SUPPORT. That could happen very quickly if SPY continues to trend HIGHER. I do think Gold will keep breaking down but if SPY RECOVERS then I likewise believe Bitcoin will tag $73.8K very quickly and then start aggressively moving HIGHER on the REACTION. It’s possible we COLLAPSE at $73.8K and keep trending toward $64K but it’s definitely not my base case at the time of writing.

Given the correlation to the 2023 Upper Weekly Bollinger Band tags that I cover all the time on YouTube - I believe we see ACCEPTANCE at this Weekly SMA RETEST meaning the price will rebound HIGHER but if this SPY rally is short lived and Bitcoin remains rangebound BELOW $83.6K then it’s likely it keeps dropping. Not really a big deal either way - we are in the part of the cycle where all you have to do is wait or manage leverage. That and continue dollar cost averaging whatever you can. Not financial advice. Just how math works. Watch Bollinger Bands.

The Daily SMA currently sits at $80.6K but I would imagine it drops to the $80.3K Fib Pivot or LOWER before we see another RETEST of it. That $78.6K September Monthly Open is going to be the most important hurdle this side of the week. Either price will struggle there with no major gap HIGHER before rushing to fill the gap in the Monthly candles (from $77.5K to $77.3K). As I’ve said my base case is we find ACCEPTANCE at the Weekly SMA around $73.8K meaning that the RESISTANCE at $78.6K will be temporary and not guaranteed. If the price can get some momentum ABOVE $78.6K on this Bollinger Band EXPANSION event then we want to watch $79.6K at the Middle Band of the Downtrend AVWAP for next signs of RESISTANCE or SUPPORT.

If price struggles there or $80.3K around a Daily SMA RETEST that results in FAILURE then it stands to reason another attempt toward the $76.3K Fib Pivot will be on its way shortly after. Subscribers are already aware we can spend several weeks DISCONNECTED from the Daily SMA so it would not be strange to see RESISTANCE form well in advance of us actually get a full move ABOVE $80K. Structurally it looks more likely to RETEST $74.9K than $84.5K which still indicates downside pressure for the foreseeable future. With the context that we have entered A Bull Market not THE Bull Market.

I would assume if we’re going to get a Daily SMA RETEST that it would be some time this week in relation to the Midterm Elections otherwise it’s far more likely we see further CAPITULATION dragging the price down LOWER than the $78.6K September Monthly Open. So that’s probably the most important level to watch the next few days.

I am in no trades after closing both my BTC Futures Shorts and PAXG Perpetual Short in Profit once price started to RECOVER on Saturday evening. Until the trend is clear I see no reason why I should give away my hard earned profits to Mr. Market while the price makes up its mind about the $78.6K level. I am still biased toward a DOWNSIDE move but still think it’s temporary. Meaning any Short I take would be with BTC Futures OR ETH Perps and generally I am still more focused on adding to a BTC Perp Long position I’m just waiting for that RETEST of $73.8K to begin. My plan is to keep enough cash on hand to stomach a drop toward $39K if for whatever reason the Stock/Bond markets collapse.

But I don’t think it’s really that likely we see that level meaning I’m just focused on keeping a relatively low cost basis this cycle for the Perp Long close in 2029. Meaning I just need to find clever ways to pay the taxes on the position without closing it early. As I said we really are in the easiest part of the cycle now. I’m in the process of writing a new PDF about this part of my strategy and I’ll keep you posted when it is done and available for purchase. For anyone that’s just SPOT investing with Bitcoin it does still apply for the most part - it’s keep buying and do nothing at all. Either way I still don’t think we break the January HIGH of $97.9K in this calendar year and I expect that move sometime in 2027.

In the 2023 cycle we saw a clear pinball pattern where the price bounced back and forth from the Upper Weekly Bollinger Band to the Weekly SMA with light RESISTANCE on the Bands while climbing HIGHER before quick ACCEPTANCE at the Weekly SMA while still climbing HIGHER. It is possible we see a 2015 scenario with a more sharp REJECTION now if we lose the Weekly SMA around $73.8K but that’s not my base case - and again only Stock/Bonds collapse would be indicative of that move for me. Especially within the context that we just saw the LARGEST HACK IN HISTORY on Binance last week. And the price barely sneezed as a response to that event happening.

If we had broken full body candles well ABOVE the Upper Weekly Bollinger Bands I would be more open to a REJECTION at the Weekly SMA but since it was a more shallow tag I think we find ACCEPTANCE there. I do think we still tag it - but it would be very quick and REVERSE just as aggressively. Structurally the Weekly timeframe is still very BEARISH BELOW $84.5K, $83.6K, $82K, $81.1K $80.3K, $79.6K AND of course $78.6K. As long as all those levels form RESISTANCE we are likely to stay rangebound near $76.3K. I don’t think we stay there forever but the Anchored Volume Profile is very thin between $76K and $72K and therefore a flush is quite possible.

This cycle IS different insofar as we have seen our Upper Weekly Bollinger Band tag BEFORE the Midterms - as well as possibly the LOWS at $57.7K back on July 1st. To me it is somewhat more likely we REVISIT the LOWS around $59K and $61K rather than actually forming a NEW LOW on the other end of downside volatility here - which again is not my base case. I think it’s entirely reasonable for the price to rebound HIGHER off a reaction to $73.8K but I know Benjamin Cowen thinks we’re about to keep heading LOWER. I’m gonna listen to the Weekly SMA and we’ll have that information likely within a Week or two. As long as the Weekly SMA keeps RISING - even if we tag it the price is only headed in one direction in the coming years. UP.

You’re either exposed to this trend or you’re too patient. If you’re reading this at all it’s because you’re invested in increasing your Bitcoin stack or profiting off the short term swings in price. We are in the easiest leg of the trade as I said ABOVE - it’s just about managing cash and exposure and being prepared to pivot if and when the price drops LOWER. But there are several reasons for me to believe the bottom is already in and therefore we don’t want to be entirely sidelined - just keep practicing good risk management while acknowledging where we are in the cycle.

Typically in a Bear Market year we spend 8-15 months DISCONNECTED from the Monthly SMA - more on YouTube today. In month 10 we tagged it and REJECTED it and I then called out another REJECTION as the first move of October - now 2 REJECTIONS. So it really comes down to that Weekly SMA RETEST because if it happens now and rebounds QUICKLY then we could see the Monthly SMA in a hurry however there are so many key levels in the September and October candles that we have to break through before that event. Structurally what the Monthly timeframe is telling us is to expect CONSOLIDATION just like the 2015 and 2022 Monthly SMA RETESTS.

As I said ABOVE the Monthly candle is really just looking for CONFIRMATION of 1 of 2 levels - that being $78.6K and $74.9K. If we tag $74.9K then it’s highly likely we are on our way to that Weekly SMA RETEST around $73.8K likewise if we keep REJECTING $78.6K. If we are able to mount SUPPORT at $78.6K then it just becomes a journey to $83.6K that faces an uphill battle to achieve ACCEPTANCE. Given the nature of the Monthly SMA REJECTION I’m inclined to think it’s possible we spend November and December still BELOW the SMA now sitting at $86.7K BUT the closer that level gets to $86K itself the more likely we are to keep rocketing HIGHER once we finally RETEST.

On the other end of this CONSOLIDATION is HIGHER. This much is quite clear to me. It’s just about not getting spooked or liquidated on the way there. We have no historical precedent for price remaining BELOW the Monthly SMA indefinitely once it has RETESTED it so the days are numbered before we RECLAIM it. To me it is really just structural COLLPASE of Stocks/Bonds that would allow for a continued DISCONNECTION from the SMA now rather than a short period of CONSOLIDATION that probably ends right around mid January when JP Morgan Chase wants you to start gobbling up their brand new Stablecoins ASAP. So I don’t expect a Monthly SMA RETEST in November, but I wouldn’t really expect it to take much more time than December/January.

There’s a lot of back and forth in this email but as long as we stay ABOVE $74.9K and BELOW $83.6K there’s not much to talk about. Price could stay here for a very long time but if one end forms a CLEAR trend then it’s likely to be followed. I’m inclined to think we’re about to tag the LOWER end of the 4H Bollinger Bands given the structure while I’m writing this but you guys already know it’s fairly common to see a massive SNAP back to the opposite side just as quickly with COMPRESSION like this. However on the other end of the Midterms it’s quite that upside momentum runs out and we simply head back toward $74.9K. I’ll be entering my trades based on the clear winner of the trend.

You can focus on being right about every trade or you can focus on having more capital in the trades that matter. We have entered the time in the cycle where the latter is more important.