Right now on the 4H we have seen a tag BELOW that $82.8K May peak that I’ve been covering on YouTube. This did cause me to close my Long but I have since re-entered it. Just wanted to capture some Profits in case the flip to the downside is more sincere. We should know closer to the Monthly close Wednesday based on the REJECTION or ACCEPTANCE of the Monthly SMA. As expected price has REJECTED a move HIGHER during the COMPRESSION of the 4H Bollinger Bands leading to this downside pressure after repeated FAILURE to break ABOVE $85.2K. The 4H SMA itself now sits around $84K and more full bodied candles closing BELOW that level puts undue pressure on the $83.6K Fib Pivot that will likely cause another collapse back toward $76.3K. Unless of course the price RECLAIMS $87.5K during the first week of October.

Price is still well elevated ABOVE key levels in this range back in May with a lot of SUPPORT forming around $79K that could allow price to remain elevated assuming it has a STRONG REACTION to the $79.4K Middle Band of the Downtrend AVWAP that I talk about all the time. Between here and there are really just the May peak at $82.8K and the recent September HIGHS of $82.3K and $81.5K respectively. If those do not hold then the price will be forced to revisit $76.3K or LOWER. Neither would surprise me now. Either price will continue to plod along toward the $96K Fib Pivot despite pullbacks or one of those pullbacks will force REJECTION at $79.4K and RESISTANCE at $76.3K. We won’t really know which until a few more weeks into October by the looks of it.

I did a lot of research this morning on what would actually cause a collapse of the Stock Market. It seems an overwhelming amount of the risk has moved to Hedge Funds and Private Equity as opposed to the central banks back in 2007. The leverage is also considerably more risky this time - with an average of 2x leverage back then and around 8x now. It seems a 10-15% drawback in the broader index would cause a forced selling event that would make a collapse inevitable. When you combine that with the reduced foreign demand of US debt and the rising bond yields it’s hard for me to just assume Bitcoin keeps going up forever. It only takes one of these dominos to fall for Bitcoin to get pressed and the focus on Derivatives rather than SPOT investing that the White House and CFTC are pushing is very concerning to me (if only me).

Structurally we are BULLISH. There is no denying this. However. There is nothing preventing that move lower to test thicker ranges of the volume profile - since not that many people have bought/sold between $72K and $86K. Meaning it’s much easier for those same overleveraged hedge funds to continue liquidating retail while increasing their exposure. Eventually that pops and then and only then will we see a $44K Bitcoin or LOWER. But whether that comes in a few weeks or next year I don’t know and anyone who says they do is probably selling you something.

As a leverage trader - I am only focused on the trade in front of me. And right now that’s looking more like a Short than a Long on the 4H timeframe. As I said I am still exposed Long but more pressure at $82.8K will have me convinced we need a Daily SMA RETEST at the very least and that’s going to pull the price LOWER in the short term. Either way you should have a DCA plan to continue accumulating every month if you truly believe in the asset class - but it’s not the time to go into debt to buy as much as possible (unless you’re into that sort of strategy). I think we have to be patient during this last quarter of the year without being too biased for one outcome over the other. Trade the reality.

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The price is going to print a REJECTION of the Monthly SMA unless it gets back ABOVE $87.3K by Wednesday afternoon - not impossible but a big ask. If it does REJECT then it’s very likely price will head back in the direction of the Daily SMA at $80.7K. I’m certainly open to the price forming SUPPORT at that level and continuing HIGHER but from a local structure perspective we really don’t want to lose $82.3K and $81.5K let alone have to RETEST even LOWER. The longer we get locked into periods of CONSOLIDATION the more likely we experience pullbacks toward key levels and there’s only so many of those the price can sustain when combined with the rising bond yields and leverage pressures. As long as the price remains BELOW $86K it will put pressure toward $76.3K and if that does not hold it will need to drop much LOWER.

I don’t really care whether we’re in a Bull market or not. I care what the chart is telling me and right now it can’t make its mind up because of the power of the news catalysts at this stage of the cycle. For me until we’re comfortably ABOVE $86K and the Monthly SMA there is going to be pressure back toward $76.3K and we only get so many RETESTS there before it forces back into the range toward $70.3K - both the Weekly SMA and the middle of that range to $64K. I talk about these levels all the time for a reason - the price WILL get pulled there just like it does every other cycle at the equivalent price ranges. This means each of those levels is highely important while getting bullied by the news cycle more than rational investors with more Spot than Leverage.

Basically - we’re in trouble as long as we stay BELOW $86K and the longer we stay there the more likely we need to RETEST $76.3K and it either holds as SUPPORT or weakness elsewhere pushes us back to the $64K Pivot and LOWER. Markets can remain IRRATIONAL for a very long time so I’m not sold on either scenario just yet and am being cautious with my Leverage position. If price goes up - my Spot bags win. If it goes down - I buy more. Life is simple.

I do think price is going to need to RETEST that Daily SMA - it’s just a matter of WHERE and WHEN not IF. Currently at $80.7K that would require WEAKNESS at $82.3K and $81.5K and the fact we’ve now seen a break to $82.5K is not encouraging for sustained STRENGTH ABOVE. If the Daily SMA rises ABOVE the $81.4K Fib Pivot by the time we interact with it then I am less worried about pressure to the downside - but if we get a RETEST BELOW that level then it’s going to act as RESISTANCE. The longer we stretch out this move HIGHER the more likely collapse elsewhere ends up taking the reins of the Bull Market away from Bitcoin.

I am not bothered by a Daily SMA RETEST - but ACCEPTANCE there would be preferable if the Bull is to sustain - otherwise again we are headed back toward $76.3K and most likely LOWER. To the contrary if we form SUPPORT at $76.3K after that many RETESTS then it may actually be a healthier signal for HIGHER for LONGER. Once again. No one knows.

Price tagged the Upper Bollinger Band on the Weekly timeframe and technically this is all the news we need to confirm an UPTREND. However, as I go over on YouTube, there are several instances where this still results in a massive sell off prior to the upswell of the price. Once we’re on this side of the trend it does make ACCEPTANCE at the Weekly SMA more likely as opposed to continued REJECTIONS like we’ve seen all year but the reality is a pullback toward $70.3K is ample opportunity to take Profits and Short that move. I am still of the opinion a REJECTION at $76.3K would be BEARISH for trend so it really depends on if this period of CONSOLIDATION alongside breaking the Upper Bollinger Band can force the SMA itself to rally back ABOVE $76.3K. This leading to the possibility of SUPPORT forming from both metrics at once.

If that were the case then a RETEST of $70.3K becomes much less likely and therefore GAME ON - at least until the Stock Market collapses by 10%. This week what’s most important is where we close Wednesday relative to $87.3K. October will either begin immediately with another ATTEMPT to break ABOVE that level and REJECTION would cause downside pressure back toward $76.3K. But it’s just as likely the price continues to rise HIGHER if it’s able to form multiple full bodied candle closes ABOVE $86K whether before or after the Monthly close. The Weekly timeframe needs to maintain pressure on the Upper Bollinger Band or we risk collapse back toward the SMA too early.

I do not ignore the significance of the break of the Upper Bollinger Band. We really only have the 2015 example to point toward an immediate REJECTION after - every other instance points towards an UPSLOPE of the price even despite RETESTS of the Weekly SMA during that time. We have likely entered the regime where RETESTS more likely form ACCEPTANCE than REJECTION and we should not ignore that trend shift. I really don’t like that Clarity Act failed and the market took the decision of the CFTC and the White House to increase access to Derivatives as the same thing as clear regulation around the Stablecoins side of Crypto. Stablecoins account for like 83% of all Crypto purchased so to me it’s really hard to overlook that narrative simply because Leverage increased.

On December 18th when the CME launched Bitcoin Futures - the price collapsed. In July last year when Coinbase launched their Perpetuals - the price was only able to climb another $5K before crashing in October. It’s just difficult for me to see them blocking effective on ramps for passive stable earnings on Stablecoins in favor of increased Leverage exposure and just pass that over as a signal that means we’re perma BULLISH. Call me paranoid, but eventually that will collapse and it’s the Weekly Bollinger Bands that are going to be confirming or denying it for us.

Typically speaking in a Bear Market year (subscribers already know) we expect to see about 8-15 months of DISCONNECTION from the Monthly SMA. We are now on Month number 10 and have now seen a REJECTION at the level unless we close Wednesday ABOVE $87.3K. Which does not currently look like the case here on Monday morning (barring some news catalyst I suppose). But a REJECTION here is very telling - because usually the price just continues right past the SMA once it has RECONNECTED. In 2023 we did see a few months of REJECTION after the initial RETEST but that’s actually not the norm. The norm is to RECLAIM it and never come back without some form of global crisis. This is why I am so focused on that $86K level because if it can’t get ABOVE there then the Monthly SMA itself is going to put pressure on the price LOWER.

I think the real question isn’t whether or not the price will go HIGHER - it’s whether or not it’s going to drop again BEFORE it makes that move HIGHER. Another RETEST of the Monthly SMA will likely give us that answer and I would assume we see that within the first weeks of October if the price doesn’t collapse sooner. It all depends on where the Daily SMA RETEST occurs and whether or not the Monthly SMA RETEST happens BEFORE and happens favorably. There is certainly a scenario where price just rips right back ABOVE $86K and heads for $93.3K and $96K but we won’t know until price RECLAIMS the $87.3K level and is able to hold it for multiple higher timeframe candles.

Nobody knows what’s going to happen with the price. All we can do is pay attention to how it REACTS at key levels and try our best to assess the relevance of the news stories. And that you means you have to read between the lines. Because Donald Trump, Scott Bessent, Paul Atkins and Kevin Warsh all want you to believe everything is perfectly fine. While countries like China, Russia and Japan reduce their demand of US Treasuries and the Bond yields rise toward levels we haven’t seen since the 80s. I wasn’t around back then but the outcome wasn’t favorable for Stocks and if Bitcoin was around then I’m sure it would have suffered as well (though it would be well over a million per coin now if it was released back then). So we have to keep both the Long term perspective in mind within the confines that it can crash along the way there.

I’m just focused on the structure more than anything. WEAKNESS at $86K? That means no $87.3K RETEST. That means higher timeframe REJECTION forcing CONFIRMATION of RESISTANCE or ACCEPTANCE at $80K and possibly $76.3K as I’ve mentioned countless times. All you can do is keep a clear head and do your best not to lose all your money before the Bull run even starts. And it will. I’m just not convined it’s happening right this second and the Weekly Bollinger Bands will tell.

There’s really no reason to panic. And if you are it’s because you’re overleveraged. So relax. Make more money. And make good choices.