Right now on the 4H timeframe it’s to going to give us the best information about whether or not this REJECTION at $87K on Sunday is going to carry more momentum to the DOWNSIDE or if we are able to form SUPPORT. As I’m writing this the price is pushing down thru the $85.4K Fib Pivot and has just RETESTED the 4H SMA while the SMA itself is starting to slope DOWNWARD. There’s also the possibility that price finds SUPPORT here but initially it would have me concerned about RETESTS of $84.9K, $84.5K and $84.2K respectively. If we need to drop as LOW as $83.6K then it INVALIDATES a lot of this move. It’s possible that just forces us into more CONSOLIDATION but we’ve already fulfilled the Monthly SMA RETEST that I talked about last week - so finding RESISTANCE there does not bode well for the price having claim HIGHER yet.

That means we need to watch this 4H SMA RETEST carefully and pay close attention to the levels we rise and fall to between now and Tuesday night. The LOW last Friday was $83.9K so it’s possible we find SUPPORT there before an $83.6K RETEST is necessary but if we start to break down LOWER than that level it begs the question whether this is still a BULLISH structure on the LOWER timeframes. Again just as likely to sit in CONSOLIDATION waiting for whatever the next major news catalyst is to bully the price. And I say it in most YouTube videos but a collapse of either the Stock or Bond market WILL send the price of Bitcoin LOWER regardless of what levels we’ve climbed to. On the other end of that will be a glorious and simple Long trade. For now patience.

I’m not a fan of the $87K RESISTANCE given it does technically form a BEARISH structure until such a time that it RETESTS it. The climb to this RETEST was certainly healthier than the meteoric rise of the first one - so there’s an argument that price just needs to build SUPPORT at those lower targets I have mentioned ABOVE but the more choppy this range is the more uncertain calling the actual price direction is going to be. The technicals were very BEARISH in July before a news catalyst changed momentum in August and price hasn’t looked back since. But the same can be true in the opposite direction if those signs of collapse appear.

I’m still Long and am now having to consider closing the position just based on this shape the 4H SMA is starting to take. It doesn’t mean the trend is not still in favor of a Long but I am being more cautious about taking Profits and being willing to jump back into trades rather than needing to sit in the trade indefinitely even during pullbacks. If we form SUPPORT here around $84.9K then I’m not concerned but if we need to lose that level then I’m comfortable taking Profits and then just hopping back into the trend wherever we form SUPPORT - even if it’s HIGHER than my cost basis currently ($84K for Perps/probably like $35K Spot).

From a narrative perspective the White House and CFTC response to the Clarity Act being centered solely around Derivative exposure for Crypto software companies is DEEPLY concerning to me. Usually when Leverage is being optimized it’s because a RINSE is preparing in silence while people funnel themselves into the slaughterhouse. That’s why I keep my Leverage strategy fairly simple with the 4HR Break Room because it allows me to make pivots as necessary with the shorter timeframes while not ignoring whatever the broader trend is prior to manipulation. At the end of the day none of us control the price of Bitcoin and the best we can do is REACT more accurately to whatever the chart is telling us now.

The Daily timeframe is still holding well ABOVE the Daily SMA but today’s downside pressure is already calling into question whether or not a RETEST is necessary - which would pull the price back toward $83.3K. However it is my assumption based on the shape of the SMA that it will continue RISING before that RETEST making the actual RETEST more likely around $83.6K as I’ve repeated ABOVE. I do not ignore when multiple timeframes are telling me the same thing so I guess I will be making a decision about whether or not to stay in that Long trade based on the reaction here to the 4H SMA because I would think an $83.6K RETEST is almost guaranteed if we lose SUPPORT at $85.4K. That would mean a quick 2% trade down to $83.6K but I would still assume we find SUPPORT rather than RESISTANCE there - barring Stock/Bond collapse.

The Daily is still BULLISH until proven otherwise - much less warning signs than the 4H timeframe. It’s possible that SMA RETEST happens much HIGHER than $83.6K if the price is able to form SUPPORT ABOVE $84.9K today but there’s no guarantee it will NEED to break LOWER upon that RETEST. Subscribers already know price can spend several WEEKS disconnected from the Daily SMA to one side or the other and there’s no need to fight with the trend when it is still in those periods of disconnection. That $87K RESISTANCE tells us that it’s going to either take LONGER for the price to return to Discovery or it’s not going to happen during this stage of the cycle. That will be decided over the course of the next few weeks so pay attention to $83.6K.

Price spent a lot of time around $84.5K as well so it would actually be a fairly BULLISH sign for us to form SUPPORT there rather than needing the $83.6K RETEST. But it does look like we’ll have another Daily SMA RETEST BEFORE price is able to climb to the $86.7K Fib Pivot level - meaning we won’t have clear data on that Fib Pivot as SUPPORT or RESISTANCE because price is too far away from the RETEST for it to be relevant. In the same regard the fact that the Daily SMA has climbed well ABOVE the $81.9K Fib Pivot is actually a great sign that level is now SUPPORT until proven otherwise by a flip of the SMA back BELOW it. Hopefully we form SUPPORT before then and don’t need it.

I don’t argue with the trend. If the price can’t break back ABOVE $87.4K then the more times it tries and FAILS it the more likely we need to start heading back in the direction of $76.3K. Even $86K itself functioning as the middle of the $96K to $76.3K range as well as the relative bottom of the larger cohort of buyers/sellers on the Anchored Volume Profile. Meaning we don’t want to see the price CONSOLIDATE BELOW $86K because once again it puts more PRESSURE on a RETEST of $76.3K. Given where we are in the cycle it’s just as likely that’s just another opportunity to Long but we won’t actually know until we see enough lower timeframe candle closes to give us a clearer picture of the trend.

When you zoom out we’re still very BULLISH and we still have the Middle Band of the Downtrend AVWAP around $79.5K that could form as SUPPORT well before needing to see a pullback to $76.3K so all we really have to do is pay attention to what the chart is telling us - and be prepared for the news to completely mess up that analysis at any moment. Simple right guys? The higher timeframes still look fine. And until we see a breakdown on the Daily toward the SMA that actually gives us clean data with a RETEST as RESISTANCE or ACCEPTANCE - there’s nothing to do but have exposure to the trend or wait for it.

Ignore earlier in the email when I said I was still in my Long. I closed it to take Profits as I stated and am fine with re-entering at a HIGHER cost basis if that is what the chart tells me is the proper trade. That being said, the Weekly candle has just flipped slightly BEARISH after losing $86.5K and a loss of $84.5K would really make a RETEST to the lower targets much more likely. Regardless I will be watching the chart closely over the next few days a re-entry point for a Long and am open to catching a quick Short if the 4H SMA continues to break to the downside. Confirmed by WEAKNESS at $84.5K would definitely make a move lower toward $83.6K much more likely over the course of the week.

I don’t necessarily expect $83.6K to form as RESISTANCE - I think that would indicate a move much LOWER toward $79.5K and possibly even $76.3K. But to me it’s more likely it finds SUPPORT and mounts for one final RETEST of $87.3K. I would think it largely depends on the volume of the Futures contracts - because we’ve already had the early October upwick fulfilled as I talked about last week - meaning smart money may have flipped to the opposite side of the trade for the duration of the month. Most months have a clear trend even if there are periods of chop but given the breaks ABOVE the Upper Weekly Bollinger Bands that I keep referencing on YouTube - we have to accept that upside is MORE LIKELY not less likely over the coming weeks.

I am not bothered by closing this Long. That’s the 2nd time I’ve done this on the run from $80K to here and I’d rather have the profits than give it up. This is part of the beauty of only trading one chart (I’ve started trading PaxG Perps as well but I just look at Gold from time to time I’m not really studying it the same way I do BTC) - I don’t have to distract myself with multiple narratives or try to craft narratives that are a stretch. I just focus on what the Technicals tell me are happening for Bitcoin and try to put as much capital as I can without risking liquidation from Swings. I’m not super concerned about my Stop Losses, I just let the trades breathe - in my experience so far the only times I’ve lost money have been overtrading and an unwillingness to remain PATIENT. Simple.

The main level to watch this week is $84.5K I think and whether or not we can maintain SUPPORT there. It’s going to be the same story if we continue to see RESISTANCE at $86K and $86.5K - the longer we can’t get ABOVE those levels the more likely a collapse back to $76.3K is necessary for the price to decide on trend. Just as likely that we SUPPORT from upon that $76.3K RETEST but finding any amount of RESISTANCE there would really call into question the structure of the trend that Bitcoin is currently in. Since the majority of the moves were built on HYPE and now we have to see if the trend continues or breaks.

We’ve already seen a major DIVERGENCE from past Bear Market cycles with a 5th Green candle print - you can’t find another instance of that on the chart for a Bear Market year. Meaning what happens next really is anyone’s guess. If I had to assume I’d say we still have a few Red candles left on the Monthly timeframe and October would be the most likely candidate after so many months RISING. It doesn’t have to be to new LOWS as everyone has been predicting but simply a close LOWER than $83.6K would fulfill that Bearish requirement for a Red Monthly candle. That or we get the drop in November.

I wouldn’t say this is a deal breaker for price to go higher but it really depends on if we see that RETEST now and it forms SUPPORT or whether we chop the whole month and end up well BELOW that level by the time we actually see the Monthly close. Given we’ve already seen a RETEST get REJECTED at $87K I don’t think we can rule out the possible that the trend has flipped BEARISH in the short term even if we acknowledge that according to the Monthly SMA RETEST - once it happens it is overwhelmingly more likely for the price to continue HIGHER over the course of the following 3-6 months. Patience pays.

I am scaling a small Short until this 4H SMA RETEST is confirmed on trend direction. I’ll talk about it more on YouTube. In general as I’ve said across this email - we really have to pay attention to $84.5K and $83.6K to get a clear picture of whether or not we can RECLAIM BULLISH momentum and it does not bother me if the opposite is true. I’ll just continue to trade whatever the chart is telling me without arguing. And I’ll keep covering that in the Discord live before you get it anywhere else.

There’s still so much time left in the Month for this trend to develop. We don’t need to make bold predictions about new LOWS when new HIGHS are still so close on the table. We just need to pay attention to the lower timeframes and what those candles and indicators are telling us about how LONG this trend HIGHER is going to take. A flip ABOVE the Monthly SMA will be the true CONFIRMATION we need to see but until then focusing on the manner in which a RETEST occurs is the best we’ve got.

The long term writing is on the wall that the price will go HIGHER. You just need to decide whether you’re accumulating for that move and comfortable not having the best cost basis - or accept the RISK.