Right now on the 4H we have broken BELOW the Middle Band of the Downtrend Anchored VWAP at $79.6K like I’ve been saying for weeks. $79.2K has opened up as a 4H Fib Pivot and since the current LOW is $40 BELOW that level it’s one worth paying very close attention to. As I’m writing this price is REJECTING the 4H SMA at $80.5K (like I talked about last night with 4HR Break Room Members) and a full bodied candle close BELOW $79.6K would indicate further pressure toward the September Monthly Open at $78.6K. I’ve been talking about a RETEST of $76.3K for several weeks since we REJECTED $86K so this move should not be a surprise to anyone who reads my Analysis. However we cannot ignore the FOMC meeting tomorrow and Wednesday and how that could possibly introduce VOLATILITY that obscures the broader trend.

That means we need to be prepared for Technicals to look very BEARISH and still have a positive affect on the price in the Short term with another bounce toward $83K to $83.6K if the Fed pauses but uses Dovish language around the December meeting. If they hike or pause and sound Hawkish then it’s likely the descent toward $76.3K just continues or continues to CONSOLIDATE. But with price so close to the $79.6K Middle Band of the Downtrend AVWAP it’s more likely that we see swings toward that $78.6K and back up toward $81.1K. On the 4H we actually have 2 AVWAP interactions to pay attention to - as the Elder AVWAP (the one I have drawn from 2011 LOWS) is sitting at the $77.6K level just BELOW another Fib Pivot at $77.8K. Assuming price gets pushed BELOW that $78.6K Monthly Open it’s probably going to spook the market until CONFIRMATION of reaction to another $76.3K is printed and behind us.

As I’ll cover in the Weekly timeframe - the history of what happens next for Bitcoin is very clear on the other end of a BEAR market. The price trends HIGHER - now can it trend LOWER over that time? Yes. Will it continue to do so indefinitely? No. Meaning my Cycle trade perspective has shifted from looking for Shorts to continuing to add to my Long when it dips and managing smaller Shorts to mitigate my downside risk. But the reality of these Longs I have entered is - I aim to close them in 2029 not in the next couple months of potentially choppy price action. I have stated several times I think it’s more likely we have a favorable reaction to $76.3K and that only a structural collapse of the Stock and/or Bond market would convince me the price goes BELOW $64K again.

Over the course of this week I am most concerned about the continued REACTION to the Middle Band of the Downtrend AVWAP at $79.6K and whether or not we tag the Elder AVWAP as well at $77.6K. But given the placement of the Weekly SMA now we have to acknowledge that as LOW as $73.8K is very much still on the table here - though I think it’s possible that doesn’t happen until next week unless FOMC is very HAWKISH. Price will likely be more VOLATILE around a REACTION to $78.6K because when the market has to decide whether price keeps chopping into the August candle or fights to RECLAIM ABOVE the September Open level. I would think we see that level sooner than later depending on FOMC.

I have adjusted my trading strategy to adapt to this structure and so far I’m very happy with the results. I could have entered my Long a bit later and could have entered my Short a bit sooner - but the overall risk is low for me since I aim to keep the Long open for YEARS and just have the Short as insurance against a further drop - where I will simply reduce my cost basis on my Long by adding more contracts to the position while reducing my overall risk by continuing to add more cash to my margin. This will be a considerably easier leg of trading than most of this year.

The Daily tells the same momentum toward $78.6K is present but with much less SUPPORT than the 4H timeframe. Our next Fib Pivot after REJECTING $81.9K is all the way down at $77.2K which means there is no help coming for the price if/when it breaks BELOW $78.6K. Meaning any SUPPORT it does find on the 4H timeframe will likely be temporary when viewed from the broader trend that we have once again REJECTED the Daily SMA and it’s not uncommon for us to spend up to 3-4 weeks DISCONNECTED from it. With the Bollinger Bands also continuing to expand there’s plenty of room to run to the downside and the only thing preventing that will be an unexpected FOMC decision that allows for some BULLISH pressure back toward $81.1K and $83K.

But as I stated, anything BELOW $81.9K is going to be viewed as one more opportunity for the price to continue trending LOWER and I don’t see any evidence for a tag that HIGH at the moment. We don’t want to ignore the random spike to $85K last week - it’s completely possible we get another irrational move HIGHER even if the short term trend is LOWER - but I would be more focused on a move to $83K/$83.6K than $85K at this point. Technically that move did invite the possibility of a HIGHER HIGH meaning a RETEST of $86K but it REJECTED basically right away so not the type of move we’d expect a sustained rally off of - just one that had legs for a day. Overall the Daily timeframe is saying LOWER and we’ll see how $79.6K and $78.6K affect that.

I wouldn’t get shaken out of your positions on Wednesday’s decision. It’s likely the markets will behave irrationally and then start to settle by the end of the week. So all we can really do is pay attention to the key levels and adjust depending on the exact language of the Fed decision. But generally speaking now that we’ve broken back BELOW the Daily SMA we would assume it will continue to trend LOWER until such a time that it finds SUPPORT and mounts a move back ABOVE $82K. Which for me likely comes AFTER a RETEST of $76.3K if the FOMC decision does not produce any upside pressure at all.

Structurally there’s very little SUPPORT here outside of the levels I highlighted in the 4H timeframe. The price just hasn’t stayed at these levels over the history of the chart long enough for investors to really fill the Anchored Volume Profile. Meaning it’s not hard for the price to continue to get bullied whichever direction suits the Market makers more. That could mean we continue to see DOWNSIDE PRESSURE despite the obvious fact that 6-12 Months from now we’ll be HIGHER. It would be great if we could always time the exact LOW or HIGH but that’s not reality. Reality is standing by the actual trend of the chart with enough capital to profit if/when you are correct about that trend.

It is still concerning to me that the CFTC and the White House are more interested in increasing our Leveraged exposure than our Spot exposure (though I seem to be the only one concerned about this). And I don’t think Robinhood rolling out the BTC Perpetuals product is something we can ignore given the context of the CME and Coinbase product releases leading to dramatic DOWNSIDE PRESSURE on the price in the following weeks (or hours in the CME case). Combine that with all the levels analysis above and the FOMC decision and you’ve got more than enough reasons for the price to revisit $76.3K and possibly LOWER depending on how long we hold off on another Weekly SMA RETEST.

I’m going to repeat this to you basically every week for the next year of our lives. Once we have tagged the Upper Weekly Bollinger Band we have entered A Bull Market - not THE Bull Market - but an uptrend in general punctuated by occassional and TEMPORARY downside momentum. What history tells us is once we’ve seen that regime flip we should expect to see ACCEPTANCE when reacting to the Weekly SMA rather than REJECTION like we’ve seen all year. Depending on the nature of this reaction we will have more information about the type of trend we have ahead of us and I cover that in every YouTube video lately so listen to any of them for the Weekly timeframe Analysis of the previous cycles. Generally we either see variable volatility meaning a slower move HIGHER with minor pullbacks along the way - or a more violent move now either to the upside that inevitably has to have a more severe pullback.

I have no control over which outcome it is and neither do you so all we can do is make sure we have adequate exposure to both possibilities within the context of the actual trade - which is again HIGHER over the next few years. Structurally the Weekly looks ugly there’s no doubt about it. With closes BELOW both $81.1K and $80.3K there’s no BULLISH argument and really we would require a Weekly close ABOVE $82K to even consider that and I would expect even a move to that price would be short lived based on the FOMC. Like the Daily timeframe there’s even less SUPPORT to be found on the Weekly with the bodies of the September candles opening closer to $76.8K meaning losing the Middle Band of the Downtrend AVWAP at $79.6K and flipping the Monthly Open BEARISH at $78.6K would be met with little SUPPORT on its way down toward the $76.3K Fib Pivot. And at the moment the Weekly SMA is too LOW at $73.1K to have any hope of really forming SUPPORT at that time.

The Weekly SMA has slightly slowed its ascent but to me it’s not a good sign that it’s still so far BELOW it. This means that a reaction to $76.3K has less SUPPORT than it would if the SMA climbed to that level - meaning a RETEST of $73.8K is not only possible but rather likely. It all depends on how the next few weeks shape out but according to Benjamin Cowen it’s been fairly normal for us to see relative LOWS around the 3rd of the month and that happens to be the Midterm Elections so it could be we see the bottom of this rally rather quickly and then find that SUPPORT that the historical trend shows us is available. So I wouldn’t put any faith in the price breaking down to $64K here but I also don’t expect $76.3K to hold just because it’s such an important level.

Unless price forms SUPPORT at either $79.6K or $78.6K (neither of which I would say are concrete levels rather than magnetic ones) then it will trend toward $77.7K and $76.8K to get CONFIRMATION of those Weekly candles in September. And remember that August candle rush opened at $62.8K meaning there is basically NOTHING BELOW $73.8K that could hold as SUPPORT until closer to $70K itself. I still think the chart tells us we’ll form SUPPORT at the Weekly SMA more than likely so nothing to be concerned about but I still think the 2023 fractal is the most likely one given the lack of momentum at the Upper Weekly Bollinger Band Break - again I cover this in more detail in every YouTube video right now.

The broader trend is still HIGHER for LONGER but the reality is we’ve now REJECTED the Monthly SMA TWICE since October 2nd and this most recent REJECTION at $85K could also be interpretted as another REJECTION of the same caliber since it briefly flipped the Monthly candle BULLISH again while ABOVE $83.6K though obviously that did not last. Generally I think it’s quite simple - price will want to trend toward the September Open at $78.6K and then it will make it’s way to the wick at $74.9K if it’s not satisfied there. But we’ve actually never seen a Monthly SMA interaction quite like this one so it is possible that significant downside is what we see for another 3-4 months. I think CONSOLIDATION is more likely personally - meaning a move toward $70.3K is definitely possible but a full collapse to $64K or BELOW would be temporary not a trend we would expect to persist indefinitely. I don’t necessarily believe we see that price to be honest but it is possible.

If we lose both $78.6K and $74.9K there is nothing besides $73.8K on the Monthly timeframe preventing us from chopping deeper into the August candle toward the Open at $62.8K. Do I believe we see that LOW? Not really. But will the candle itself be seeking CONFIRMATION of SUPPORT along the way there. Absolutely. $68.5K could be crucial there as well if we can’t form SUPPORT at $70.3K and begin the rally back toward $76.3K but generally this all hinges on how price REACTS the first time we tag $76.3K. With the Monthly close on Saturday just before the Weekly close I would think the most important level to watch is $78.6K and depending on where we close in relation to that I would Sunday sees some dramatic pressure on that level.

I don’t think we can the REJECTIONS of the Monthly SMA - like I explain in today’s YouTube video - we just don’t see this pattern before on the chart. What history tells us is a long period of DISCONNECTION (we had 10 months) and then some CONSOLIDATION or a spike HIGHER. So what I’m anticipating is still CONSOLIDATION but a possible spike LOWER seems to be more likely depending on the affect of FOMC on price. We’re on Month 11 BELOW the Monthly SMA and the 2023 fractal allowed for 15 Months BELOW it so still plenty of time to chop. There’s also nothing preventing the price from continuing to chop LOWER other than ZERO historical precedent for that and the reality that the Genius Act goes into full effect in January of next year. Meaning the total amount of stablecoins available for trading is about to skyrocket.

All this to say that we could continue to see downside pressure for the coming weeks just not the dramatic October LOWS people were expecting. If we do see them it’ll be structural collapse of the Stock and/or Bond Market and I’m inclined to think they try to keep that ship afloat as long as possible. Meaning ACCEPTANCE at the Weekly SMA would eventually trend us HIGHER and any future collapse would bring prices basically to where they are now rather than assuming we see $44K. For the rest of the Week/Month just pay attention to how the price behaves at $78.6K and be prepared to see $76.3K sooner than later unless the FOMC decision is remarkably DOVISH for whatever reason.

Regardless of whether price recovers quickly or takes its time - these will be some of the last best weeks to continue adding to a Spot position. Not financial advice but don’t complain about not having enough Satoshis in a year from now if you didn’t take action now.