Right now on the 4H timeframe we’re seeing significant COMPRESSION that WILL break to one side or the other likely within the next day or so. So take that into account as I’m giving the following levels - because they could change quite quickly depending on how much MOMENTUM the price builds. This of course can always be bolstered by some rogue news story but I’m inclined to believe we’ve gotten the relevant stories from here until Sep 9th. $78.6K has opened up as a new 4H Fib Pivot and at the moment it seems the price is having trouble there indicating it may be RESISTANCE not SUPPORT. This comes after multiple REJECTIONS of the Middle Band of the Downtrend AVWAP (across timeframes not just the lower timeframes) so all that remains now is CONFIRMATION of STRENGTH or WEAKNESS at the Elder AVWAP itself.

The price has formed SUPPORT at the Elder AVWAP thus far at around $77.5K but I would expect over time that could change with repeated attempts at it. If it does break that I would expect to start seeing a move back toward my beloved $76.3K Fib Pivot and if it forms SUPPORT there then we’d actually expect the inverse - another RETEST of the Downtrend Middle Band at $79.4K. $76.7K has formed as another Fib Pivot to the downside but I’m inclined to think the $76.3K level will be more important today given the Monthly close. However it is important to note that the last month has categorically IGNORED what the Technicals are telling us and has traded on Hopium - so be cautious.

I talk about this all the time on YouTube. To me there is no difference between the May rally and this rally - other than the fact that the rally is primarily Leverage and based on the Fed Buyback narrative rather than the CLARITY Act narrative (which is indicative of fundamental WEAKNESS in the Bond Market and the US dollar itself). The Upper Bollinger Band on the 4H timeframe has broken BELOW that $79.4K Middle Band of the Downtrend AVWAP and therefore that WILL put pressure on that level as RESISTANCE instead of SUPPORT. However that could change in the next few hours if price is able to stair step HIGHER despite the pressure. I’ll be covering that more in the 4HR Break Room as updates become clear.

I am biased toward the Downside but the September 9th narrative could dramatically alter that. I’m inclined to believe the market already priced in that narrative - because the initial buyback doubling was what raised the price ABOVE $80K and the subsequent announcement of $950 Billion reserved for Buybacks barely did anything at all to the price - while it was sitting at a CRITICAL REJECTION point BELOW the $83K level I talk about all the time on YouTube. This combined with the relative THINNESS of the Anchored Volume Profile between $72K to $86K leads me to believe the market makers just wanted to load up more Longs for LIQUIDATION.

I do expect a BULLISH move on the September 9th initial Buyback period - but that could be cut short VERY QUICKLY on September 15th if its clear that the Senate will not move forward with the CLARITY Act (which in my opinion is still more important than the Treasury narrative) AND the FOMC meeting that day which will decide the Interest rate decision. If one or both of those September 15th narratives put BEARISH pressure on the price then I would imagine it collapses if not ABOVE $83K already.

The Daily SMA has not seen a RETEST since August 17th - it is fairly normal for it to spend as many as 3-4 weeks DISCONNECTED during a Bear Market but the likelihood is starting to favor a RETEST sooner than later. The price of the Daily SMA at $72.5K is currently still CLIMBING and it’s very possible that a retest would just lead to SUPPORT forming for another move toward $83K. I am inclined to believe the price CAN stay elevated ABOVE the Daily SMA until that September 15th decision unless we see a massive drop around the Monthly candle close today in order to pull the absolute close LOWER. Depending on where that close is - I would assume price is going to want CONFIRMATION of $76.3K as SOON AS POSSIBLE in the month of September.

We do not yet have NEW Fibonacci Pivot Points for the Daily timeframe given how far ABOVE the old ones we were - we will get those either this evening or tomorrow morning and I’ll be covering them in YouTube videos (and emails). I would imagine that we will have formed some of them as SUPPORT already and potentially a few of them as RESISTANCE as well - but having this data WILL influence how the price behaves over the course of the week. That combined with consistent Daily closes BELOW the Middle Band of the Downtrend AVWAP WILL put pressure to the downside even if it is short lived.

I’ve said this many many times on YouTube but I do think this Quarter of the year is the LEAST PREDICTABLE and therefore HIGHEST RISK and you need to be patient while you are preparing yourself for setups because the slightest narrative change could throw logic and reasoning out the window in favor of chasing Levels that do not make sense on paper for a late stage Bear Market.

I am still Short because I read multiple REJECTIONS of both the Middle Band of the Downtrend AVWAP AND the $83K Level to be BEARISH despite the excitement around the Fed Buyback decision (it’s also important to note that news BARELY affected the Bond yield and it still seems like it’s ready to keep rising - which is BEARISH for Risk On Assets). Again that combined with ANYTHING OTHER THAN THE CLARITY ACT PASSING ON SEPTEMBER 15TH - will be BEARISH for price. I don’t know why I’m the only one online that holds that opinion. Most people seem to think it’s not that important but to me it is the single key for GUARANTEEING that tens of Trillions will flow into the market.

Logic and reasoning dictates for me that we’re going to have a Daily SMA RETEST sooner than later - obviously that means either the Daily SMA needs to keep RISING in order for us to meet it OR the price needs to start FALLING so it can have that RETEST. I think it will actually be both. The September 9th news will likely keep price elevated (again barring a major selloff today or tomorrow based on the Monthly close) and by the decision on the 15th I think the Daily SMA RETEST is coded in and it’s just a matter of whether those news narratives are bullish/bearish.

Last Week’s candle close is VERY TELLING to me - now it’s important to note that so was 2 weeks ago - and that did NOT work out the way the Technicals were telling us it would. That being said, without an EQUIVALENT or GREATER narrative than the Fed Buyback narrative coming to the markets I just don’t see how this momentum can be sustained to the upside WITHOUT a RETEST LOWER. Again there’s nothing preventing SUPPORT from FORMING on that lower move - but I think that Lower move is almost guaranteed based on what I laid out above on the Daily SMA scenario. But for me it is the Middle Band of the Downtrend AVWAP that tells us the most about how the Weekly is behaving - the price wicked well ABOVE it and closed WAY BELOW it.

To me that means this week we will see a RETEST of the $76.3K Fib Pivot - meaning downside pressure into the week depending on the Monthly close. The Weekly timeframe shows more signs of EXHAUSTION than anything but the Daily timeframe and I do expect that $76.3K RETEST is the LEAST of the expectation we should have for this week - anything other than SUPPORT formed at that level will really call into question lower levels like $73.8K and the $73.3K Fib Pivot - and then same story either they form as SUPPORT or we get CONFIRMATION of RESISTANCE and therefore LOWER prices still. The same of course is true if we find STRONG SUPPORT ABOVE $76.3K and therefore we would expect the rally to continue trying to RECLAIM $81.5K and potentially RETESTING the May HIGHS of $82.8K for an attempted break in STRUCTURE that everyone else on the internet was heavily front running.

To me - we have not seen STRENGTH at $83K - therefore it is highly likely the price needs to RETEST LOWER before it can mount another ATTEMPT to rise ABOVE that level. That move is COMPLETELY INVALIDATED based on the September 15th news being BEARISH. AND ONLY in the event the CLARITY Act seems like it’s going to PASS AND the FOMC decision is to PAUSE or LOWER rates (somewhat unlikely) - both those things have to happen for the price to continue rising IMO. That puts a LOT of pressure on those news outcomes being favorable otherwise the chart is telling us pretty clearly on the Weekly and Daily timeframe that we have signs of EXHAUSTION. I haven’t even talked about the Monthly timeframe yet and that one is even more obvious.

Now it’s completely possible for the price to continue trending HIGHER until that September 9th buyback starts - but that will be clearly INVALIDATED if the price cannot stay elevated ABOVE $79.4K at the Middle Band of the Downtrend AVWAP. So what’s most important right now is where the price closes at 5PM PST in relation to both that Middle Band as well as the $76.3K Fib Pivot (though $77.7K is still holding for now). IF the wick of the Week can get ABOVE $79.4K then obviously we have some hope for higher still - however if that Monthly close comes in today and the price REACTS NEGATIVELY then obviously $76.3K will be imminent and therefore much LESS LIKELY to RETEST $79.4K right away.

What goes up MUST come down - very simple Newtonian physics principle that absolutely applies to Bitcoin the same as it does for apples (even AAPL). With such a violently Green Monthly candle in August - it is overwhelmingly likely that we see significant downside pressure at least to start the month. Just the same as August began with the NECESSITY of a gap fill from $64.2K back to $62.8K before heading much HIGHER - I would assume price is going to at the very least need to start the month RETESTING LOWER even if again that September 9th to 15th keeps it elevated a bit longer than it should be. It’s also quite possible that we don’t get that significant move LOWER now and that it comes AFTER the September 15th decision. Either is fine with me. I just want the chart to start behaving predictably again and I’ll break down those finer details of WHY I believe that more in the YouTube video today.

It’s always possible the price continues to trend HIGHER but again it’s more likely it’ll RETEST those $80K+ targets I mentioned ABOVE and assuming it fails any of them then it’s going to need to REVISIT $76.3K and possibly much LOWER. Typically speaking in a Bear Market Year (subscribers are already aware) we see about 3-4 Green Monthly candles - and August is going to print #4. That means theoretically every other month this year will be RED - which is a very low bar because that could mean literally $100 LOWER than wherever August closes. Which when factoring in those narratives I’ve mentioned ABOVE that could definitely be the case - we could see Long Wicks and a short candle body for September - we’ll know closer to the 15th I would imagine.

It’s going to be an exciting week and probably a dramatic next couple of weeks. We should get CONFIRMATION of trend fairly soon and then we won’t have to worry about PermaBULLS dictating the narrative (or we absolutely will if the Stock Market just keeps ripping indefinitely). I get this question a lot on Threads but I wouldn’t be worried about whether or not the Bottom is in already. Just focus on a solid DCA plan and distributing custody of your coins across multiple locations and you’re going to be fine. Long term these swings will feel very minor but right now we have to pay close attention to what the Technicals are telling us because the narratives are not always as obvious what they indicate.

So pay close attention to where the price closes the Month today and then act accordingly based on the levels that I’ve spoken about ABOVE. I’m inclined to think the most important two are going to be $79.4K and $77.7K for now until one or both of them have clear CONFIRMATION. Either way I would assume we get a fairly large move sooner than later based off that COMPRESSION on the 4H timeframe I mentioned. Don’t panic. Don’t chase trades. Just take your time and make good decisions.

You’re either making the best of a Bear Market or you’re complaining about it - you already know which one I’m doing.