Right now on the 4H the price keeps getting bullied HIGHER in singular 4H candles that the market then spends the next week trying to CONFIRM as SUPPORT or RESISTANCE. I don’t think this chop will abate until September 16th as I have now said in many many YouTube videos. That means price will continue to make consolidated efforts to break ABOVE $81.5K, $82.3K and $82.8K until such a time it has enough momentum to break $83K as well. As I say on YouTube all the time, I don’t think the Anchored Volume Profile speaks to ENOUGH human beings having strong emotional biases toward the present levels - meaning it is easy to BULLY the price in either direction for institutions.

That means the 4H will continue to deliver solid Scalp positions for a while but the weight of the decisions on September 15th and 16th definitely skew in favor of short term bias rather than attempting to predict two very distinct futures. If the Senate moves forward with a CLARITY Act vote and it passes - the price will continue to behave irrationally to the upside (and probably sell off) and if it does not pass I see no reason why the price would stay elevated. Similarly if the FOMC pauses or hikes rates - I do not think Bitcoin will be happy about that, and it’s hard for me to believe they would lower interest rates now while the Fed is literally having to buy back their own debt en masse. Meaning once again - the decisions on those days determines which path Bitcoin’s price will take and all we can really do is isolate the key levels.

From a Technical Narrative perspective - we are in Price Discovery (or at least we will be at $82.8K). This means the price will be drawn to HIGHER rather LOWER prices especially while it continues to build SUPPORT at key levels like $76.3K. However, we saw a string of BEARISH Technicals print the week before the Treasury decided to increase buybacks - and yet the price rose as if those Technicals were not reality. I would imagine we will see something similar with $76.3K shredding as SUPPORT in the event those news decisions do not go favorably for Bitcoin. $78.6K is also a key level on the 4H timeframe to watch but at this point the 4H SMA itself has risen quite a bit HIGHER to $79.7K and we have just lost the Middle Band of the Downtrend AVWAP at $79.4K as well. Unfortunately I don’t think that metric is being honest with us yet - but I do think after September 16th it will become remarkably useful information once more.

We’ve got a pretty clear downslope forming on both the 4H SMA as well as the Bollinger Bands but the price has not been behaving rationally for a while now - no reason at all it can’t just randomly snap back ABOVE $80K unless some major news breaks in anticipation of the Senate meeting and the FOMC decision. But I would imagine that’s temporary and the only other thing to watch is the September 9th first buybacks and how the market interprets that on the 10Y/30Y Bond rate reaction.

Key levels to the upside would be $80.4K if it can form SUPPORT ABOVE $79.4K again. To the downside there’s not really much preventing it from dropping a lot if it cannot hold onto $78.6K. $77.7K and $77.3K would be hot on its heels but again I think the price stays boring and elevated until the absolute last second for the news next week. If it telegraphs too clearly in one direction or the other then the market makers make less money wiping people out - and we wouldn’t want that now would we?

The Daily timeframe has been disconnected from the Daily SMA now since August 17th and it’s running out of time before we need an interaction. Presently it is sloped UPWARD and shows no signs of altering - however an interaction could pull it LOWER or at the very least make it CONSOLIDATE. Typically we see about 3-4 weeks once it has a proper disconnection and we’re coming up on that now - again I think this is tied moreso to the decision on the 16th since nothing is preventing price from simply holding onto the Daily SMA like a life raft as the price gets buffeted by the tidal uncertainty right now.

Same as every other timeframe, $79.4K is a critical level of SUPPORT or RESISTANCE and I think it’ll be more important next week than it is right now. Right now we get little pieces of evidence that it’s WEAK and then RANDOM blasts where it shows STRENGTH ABOVE it - next week I would assume the price will interpret interactions with this level much more seriously. That means price will either be heading much HIGHER than $80K or it will be leaving the $80K in a hurry to the downside with only $76.3K waiting to receive it fully. $74.1K also shows up on the Daily timeframe as an important Fib Pivot and YouTube subscribers are well aware how much I talk about $73.8K - I really see $74.1K as CONFIRMATION of SUPPORT of that $73.8K level - so really it’s a range more than a concrete wall down there but that’s about it besides $76.3K.

Also the Anchored Volume Profile shows more buyers/sellers stepped up between about $76K-$79K so to me if I were a big whale looking to liquidate people on the way down like they just did on the way up - I’d be looking to wipe out that whole cohort of individuals who bought or sold on Leverage. Once again that September 16th decision tree does more for us than the Technicals can - but the Technicals will be pretty clear if we don’t form SUPPORT at $76.3K then price is going to head AGGRESSIVELY LOWER. And to the same token to the upside - $83K will not be an issue if the votes go favorably and they somehow lower interest rates. Also that would have a CRAZY downstream effect on the economy a year from now - but again I ramble on that possibility more often than not in YouTube videos as well.

I’m staying out of Leveraged trades until September 16th. I will probably enter one very early that morning - I don’t really care which side. If it’s clear price is going to start dropping - I will most likely begin my Spot DCA as well since the price will head toward new LOWS but not necessarily hurry there. And if the vote passes then I will have missed my DCA window - but I will still start buying some anyway because once again the focus is on amassing more Satoshis not just more money. That means if you’re trading sometimes it’s better to do nothing until the obvious trade presents itself. I see no point in trying to anticipate what the price is going to do when the news is going to tell us very soon.

I don’t like having to trade that way - but the Technicals continue to show BEARISHNESS and yet the price goes HIGHER. That combined with the Price Discovery does make things unreliable on the chart. One pressure moves us HIGHER while BEARISH Technicals are ignored - that leans BULLISH for sure, but it may just be early signs of WEAKNESS in anticipation of the 16th decision - which of course the people in power know the result already and we just have to wait until they decide. This is one of the reasons we hold Bitcoin in the long term anyhow - on a long enough timeline the decisions of greedy people lead to more money printing and like I talk about in Chapter 1 of The Bitcoin Escape Plan - as long as they keep printing money the price of Bitcoin will rise forever.

Typically speaking in a Bear Market year when the price rises ABOVE the Weekly SMA - it inevitably gets pulled back toward it and ultimately REJECTS it. The only other indication we can really pay attention to the contrary here would be the Upper Bollinger Band on the Weekly timeframe. We do not see candle breaks ABOVE it until A BULL RUN has restarted - not necessarily THE BULL RUN but A BULL RUN will begin if the price starts breaking ABOVE about $85.1K (very close to that $86K level that I talk about all the time on YouTube).

The same story is true on the Weekly timeframe as everywhere else I just think it’ll be a bit obvious when the true shift is occuring on the Weekly (and to some degree the Monthly timeframe as well). $76.3K is going to be just as important here and I would imagine the price is going to show us SUPPORT ABOVE it this week without a RETEST - because that confirms BULLISH Technicals - which again goes out the window depending on the outcome on the 16th. To the same effect it will be BULLISH continuation evidence now that we can’t ignore and for me that’s really momentum ABOVE the $86K level.

Like I keep saying on YouTube - we’re either in late stage Bear market meaning one more drop OR the drop is behind us and price wants to continue rising HIGHER. Once the news has been confirmed the politicians will pivot to focusing on Midterm Elections so I think price just follows whatever trend has been established at that time. Which means either a pretty aggressive move back toward the midpoint at $64K or an equivalent level of momentum toward around $96K in the span of weeks.

My gut is telling me the price is going to sell off - but I do not know this to be true until September 16th. I wish I had something more to say about it than that. Once we get to the $86K level everyone who bought above that (A LOT OF PEOPLE) will have to decide to either trim their positions or add to them. And for many of them they’ve been in 10-50% loss for a full calendar year - this decision window is critical in my view. If the price cannot reach those levels and it begins falling again - those individuals will be forced to sell at a loss or wait even longer for gains. This will have a cascading effect on the price either way - so in my view the next Swing trade is quite easy - just not sure which way it goes yet.

Right now the Monthly timeframe is BULLISH despite Bear Markets typically only producing 3-4 Green Monthly candles - we now are printing a 5th. This is one of the many reasons I can see the September 15th/16th outcome not being favorable for Bitcoin - because it fulfills the destiny of another Red candle while also faking out A LOT of people who are calling for $200K Bitcoin right now. If we print another Green Monthly candle we have to accept the paradigm is broken and we are in fact in another BULL RUN but I believe that only comes on the other end of them passing the CLARITY Act and lowering interest rates AND the Bond Market rates not continuing to rise (they are). All the price has to do to remain BULLISH is stay ABOVE $77.9K but with the gap between the August close at $78.6K - it’s very likely that gap will need to be filled - which will NOT look obvious outside this Newsletter until the 16th.

If all goes well for the news then you’ll hear me being BULLISH quite quickly - still anticipating a PEAK that will sell off rather than a rocket to $200K - but BULLISH nonetheless. No reason to fight the trend in my opinion. But what history has always shown us is we will produce more Red candles this year and that comes down to where the price closes in relation to the August candle. Anything BELOW $78.6K will fulfill that requirement which gives a lot of room for October to be BEARISH as well to subsume most of the August candle. I don’t think people realize how long they can really stretch out a bottom.

We are getting very close to no longer having to be patient. Very soon it will just be about having strong CONVICTION and paying attention to the key levels once again. Don’t get shaken out or too Leveraged on one particular bias - or you will miss the opportunity to take the most obvious trade of the year. That’s fine if everyone else wants to tell you exactly which way it’ll go - I will not. I will continue to analyze the price as we near the September 16th decision but it is that decision that will dictate the flow of price and nothing else. The Fed Buyback narrative is also important for the 9th this week but the market seems to have already priced that in - without factoring the long term implications of what it means for foreign entitities to continue reducing dollar demand.

Pretty soon it’s either easy DCA or panicked DCA. It still benefits rich people for the price to be volatile - and therefore it will be. Long term the price will continue to rise forever so me personally I’m just chilling with what I have and waiting for the Senate and the FOMC to tell me which way the market wants to continue heading. Remembering of course that when the Stock Market finally has a major correction - so will Bitcoin. It is unlikely to me we see a true decoupling of assets this early into the mass wealth transition. Wealth moves in decades not days. It’s just our job to learn how to surf those waves as they start picking up.

You buy Bitcoin at the price you DESERVE. You are rewarded for both patience and taking action - make sure to know the difference.