Right now on the 4H we’ve been stuck in a tennis match between a few key levels that haven’t really led the price anywhere. Great for Scalpers - absolutely terrible for anyone hoping to Swing. This is the longest I’ve stayed out of a trade for the year and that will end tomorrow or Wednesday morning. From a structural standpoint we have entered a Downtrend on the 4H until such a time that we break back into price Discovery and that will not happen if they don’t pass Clarity tomorrow AND they raise interest rates on Wednesday. This is why for the most part I don’t think it’s worth front running the news - I think it’s best to actually have that CONFIRMATION so that we can trade more accurately. I’ll break down both scenarios in more detail on YouTube today.

The levels that matter most right now are - $78.6K as I’m writing this as well as $79.4K to the upside and $76.3K to the downside. We did see one tag BELOW $76.3K on Friday in the MOST MANIPULATED candle of the recent regime. If we were trading purely off the Technicals - that would have been enough to assume price was going LOWER and yet here we are flirting with $78.6K again. So far as I’m aware - EVERY narrative is BEARISH right now UNLESS Clarity passes. I do not personally believe the Fed having to buyback their own Bonds is BULLISH - despite being a short term headwind for the inflation narrative. We’ve seen more manipulation since August than we have all year and it’s just a matter of time until that momentum breaks to one side or the other. Unfortunately we won’t know which until the news Tuesday and Wednesday.

I am way better at Swing trades than Scalp trades so I have not been touching this range - too many fakeouts and great opportunities to LOSE money rather than making it pretty easily as you’ve all read/listened to me doing over the course of this year. Until the price breaks ABOVE $82.8K we are NOT in Price Discovery and therefore not in a Bull market. As I say all the time on YouTube, this will be CONFIRMED by a BREAKOUT ABOVE the Weekly Upper Bollinger Band and we don’t have it yet. Structurally a tag of $83K could still be INVALIDATED and shouldn’t be assumed to be nothing but upside from that point - the news cycle has the wheel right now and after is where we watch the Technicals.

I would assume price will continue to trend UPWARD until that news tomorrow and Wednesday - so depending on when you’re reading this we could be way ABOVE or BELOW those key levels I said to watch for. Price does seem to be mounting a move toward $79.4K while I’ve been writing this email - which is great for getting a HIGHER position for a Short tomorrow - but is more meant to lure people into the Upside. Not worth chasing it in my opinion unless you’re ready to pull the Scalp quick. Not really the time to DCA here in anticipation of price ripping HIGHER - there will be an opportunity later if it does - don’t panic.

I would watch that $79.4K level very closely between today and tomorrow for some indication of trend but again - the news is what’s going to dictate the momentum moving forward this week.

The Daily SMA has been REJECTED several times and today is the first day we’ve seen the price break back ABOVE it and I would imagine price probably does close today ABOVE that $78.5K level in anticipation of news tomorrow. The RETEST is very important to pay attention to because it’s not uncommon for a period of several WEEKS of DISCONNECTION but it’s also not uncommon for several days of CHOP. I don’t think that’s going to be the case - I think we know exactly which way the price is headed by very early Wednesday morning. Structurally there’s a lot of room for downside momentum on the Daily timeframe and we have to break past the lack of volume between $79K and $86K before there is really legitimate hope of a sustained rally HIGHER. Though again, we could see that happen literally tomorrow if Clarity passes.

The Daily Bollinger Bands are COMPRESSING - this tells us the major move is very close and it’s just a matter of WAITING to enter your position or not getting shaken out depending on which position you choose to take. Either way I’m not touching my Spot Bitcoin portfolio yet - not buying, not selling, just doing NOTHING - as I would assume the majority of people are doing given the fact that the Anchored Volume Profile is considerably THINNER between $72K and $86K than it is ABOVE or BELOW those levels. This means it’s not hard for the price to get bullied in that range to one side or the other.

From a probability standpoint I do expect downside but it doesn’t really matter - if there’s anything I’ve learned from the last 2 months it’s that price does not ALWAYS trade with logic and reasoning and sometimes you just need to accept whatever people want to believe before you can CONFIRM what the chart is actually telling you is happening. I don’t like that - but it is what it is.

A period of COMPRESSION like this always leads to a major move so it’s just going to be dependent upon the news outcome to see the initial reaction and then again we have the Wednesday decision that will either COMPOUND or DECOMPRESS the outcome of the Clarity Act tomorrow. If Clarity PASSES - then price will rally and a rate Hike MAY be less dramatic for the price off that general excitement. This would lead to price heading back ABOVE $81.5K and likely into Price Discovery not long after that. If Clarity does NOT PASS then I would imagine we head back to $76.3K in a hurry and then just have to wait for the rate decision Wednesday to actually CONFIRM or DENY that direction for the price.

I’m taking FOREVER to write today but price is now also climbing toward that $79.4K level and I wouldn’t expect it to function like a concrete wall today - generally speaking there’s nothing preventing price from running to $81.5K or $82.3K for CONFIRMATION of another $82.8K RETEST. I wouldn’t chase this movement. If Clarity passes tomorrow - it’s not that big a deal if your average cost is $79K vs $86K - the price will go MUCH HIGHER if that actually passes. What is more important is being exposed to the ACCURATE TREND and we don’t what that is yet - and you shouldn’t listen to anyone who tells you they know exactly what it is.

Same as on every other timeframe - we have to pay attention to the REACTION to the Middle Band of the Downtrend AVWAP at $79.4K. As I’m writing the price is attempting a move there and we’d want to watch a move to $80.3K if it can get HIGHER. But I’m inclined to believe the price is more likely to tag $81.5K and $82.3K if it’s going higher than $80K not just stopping with another LOWER HIGH. But that clock runs out tomorrow afternoon if Clarity doesn’t pass - which I will continue to repeat until Wednesday’s video. Structurally we still want to pay attention to $76.3K on the Weekly timeframe but I don’t think it’s important right now - it very well may be on Wednesday.

I talk about this all the time on YouTube but what ACTUALLY confirms a Bull market trend for us is the Upper Band of the Weekly Bollinger Bands. IF price begins breaking ABOVE $84.8K then we don’t actually have a historical context for the price breaking down - it would be much more likely that it runs HIGHER. I would assume in the direction of $96K at the very least. This again would be predicated on the Clarity Act passing AND rates getting cut not hiked or paused. The converse is true - if it doesn’t pass and they decide to hike rates - I would assume we head in the direction of $64K sooner than later.

I trade the chart. I do not trade my feelings. WHEN I trade my feelings - I lose money. When I trade the chart - I have opportunities to make money. When the news cycle dominates - the chart is less predictable. When the chart is less predictable - you need to pivot very quickly based on the information you have access to. We’re all in the same boat until 2 PM EST tomorrow and 2 PM EST on Wednesday. Once those two times have passed the market will have all the certainty it needs and it will be pretty easy to hop into whichever trend is the outcome of the news. I wish I had something more interesting to keep repeating on here.

It’s pretty much either we’re headed toward Price Discovery or the midpoint. And very little room for us to stay in CONSOLIDATION any longer since we’ve already been there for 4-5 weeks now. There will be a major move on the other end of this COMPRESSION it’s just not worth jumping the gun on which side. If you’re worried about getting priced out of buying Spot - you’re not the only one but it’s not worth wasting all your cash in FEAR instead of just allowing the news momentum to carry the price where it wants to head next. Either $96K or $64K.

Probability tells us that there are ZERO more Green Monthly candles this year, as I say all the time on YouTube. BUT depending on Tuesday/Wednesday news that’s going to be completely irrelevant and we have to pay more attention then to the other key Monthly level - being the Monthly SMA itself. And this is a solid argument, we’re on month number 10 being disconnected and typically it’s about 8-13 months before a RETEST occurs. And it always ends up going HIGHER once that RETEST has occurred - we just want to pay attention to how EXPLOSIVE that momentum is because the price either stays elevated ABOVE it indefinitely or it’s more likely to see a RETEST a few months down the line - the difference between 2022-2023 and 2018-2019 - more on YouTube.

Right now we’re seeing the Monthly candle flip BULLISH again with today’s move but if the news is not favorable tomorrow and Wednesday then I would assume that candle is going to flip Red very quickly. Probability does speak to September being BEARISH typically - so just because we’ve been in CONSOLIDATION doesn’t mean we’ll stay there forever. Either way - I would assume a very large move is on the way - and say it with me - we won’t know what that trend is until tomorrow and Wednesday. So be patient my friends.

Tuesday. Wednesday. Is all that matters. I can only repeat myself so many times. $79.4K is important. $81.5K and $82.3K are both important. $76.3K and $77.7K are all important. NONE OF THAT MATTERS unless the news decides that it does. Expect volatility. Expect irrationality. Welcome to Crypto my friends, sometimes this is just the way things are. No point in fighting it or trying to anticipate the outcome. Just trade the outcome.

I am inclined to think the Clarity decision is more important than the FOMC one - so I will probably be entering my trade tomorrow. I will most likely not tell you about that until Wednesday’s email so make sure you’re subscribed. More on YouTube every day. Don’t overthink it guys.

It’s only a matter of time now. No reason to panic. Just let the powers that be make the decision - and then trade the decision.