Right now on the 4H the price has continued to react favorably to the 4H SMA as price has entered DISCOVERY - meaning it will continue to trend HIGHER until it is met with an IMMOVABLE OBJECT - such as the $96K Fib Pivot that I talk about all the time on YouTube. Price is showing slight RESISTANCE at the $86.3K Fib Pivot but really it’s just cooling down after that massive rise from $81.7K to $84.8K. It completely ignored the $83.6K Fib Pivot but it is possible we see that return in a pullback if the $86.3K level continues to REJECT. As I’ll go over in the Weekly timeframe - we have every reason to believe we have now entered A Bull Run - not THE Bull Run - but A Bull Run nonetheless. That means we should prepare for the 2019 fractal to be what we see play out next.

The Bollinger Bands on the 4H have passed the period of COMPRESSION to the upside and continue to expand despite the price breaking ABOVE them. Now I know my Advanced Bitcoin Trading Strategy calls for Shorting the Upper Bollinger Band - I will not be Shorting this range and realistically I am looking for pullbacks to add more to my Long position. DCA is a tough call right now - I am of the opinion we still return to $64K at some point - the problem is it may be 6 months from now and still heavily correlated to structural weakness in the Stock Market as opposed to something we can actually plan around. So for the time being - price wants to continue HIGHER and there’s nothing to prevent it from doing so until it reaches that $96K Fib Pivot and $100K level.

I don’t fight the trend. I kept mentioning it in videos that when we break ABOVE the Weekly Bollinger Band we’re in a Bull run - we only have one instance on the chart ever that results in a Lower Bollinger Band RETEST after - every other instance we end up seeing SUPPORT form at the Weekly SMA RETESTS. So it’s worth noting that we may get a Weekly SMA RETEST - but it would more than likely be a time to add to a Long than it would be to continue a Short. When in Price Discovery there is no reason to be needlessly BEARISH and we have to accept reality on the chart given the context of the news and momentum of the price.

That $86.3K level is really the only RESISTANCE we’ve seen so far on this rally but I wouldn’t expect much more of a pullback than the $83.6K level. Possibly the 4H SMA at $81.7K but I doubt it, price looks more than happy to keep ripping now. I guess crude oil prices went down which reduced inflation concerns and dropped the Treasury yields a bit. The only potential argument is selling pressure from the late 2024-2025 buyers wanting to get out of their positions as we rise ABOVE $86K but I think that argument is going to fall on deaf ears because those people are just as likely to add to their positions now given the recent activity.

Don’t fight the trend my friends. It’s not productive to have a BEARISH tilt right now. I’m not convinced that the Bottom is in - but the chart feels otherwise. Our best case scenario according to the chart is a return to the midpoint at $64K sometime next year. What we have ahead of is much more likely a rise to $96K and beyond so prepare accordingly.

The price often stays DISCONNECTED from the Daily SMA for several weeks at a time and it’s quite possible we’re about to see that again now. I am hesitant to say there will be no major pullback to it but that level currently sits at $78.9K and the price has been pretty clear since the end of last week that it has formed SUPPORT around the $80K level which would make a Daily SMA RETEST unnecessary for now. The Fib Pivots are slightly different on the Daily timeframe but essentially as I’m writing this price is showing that same RESISTANCE at the $86K level as it is on $86.3K (a minor difference obviously).

The next Fib Pivot ABOVE is all the way at $93.3K so it’s really just a matter of whether or not the price wants to CONSOLIDATE around the $86K level to fill in the Anchored Volume Profile but really that would be reflected by a pullback to $83.6K more than $86K itself. If price stays where it is now then obviously we can’t fill the lower levels out with more volume. If the volume continues to fill where it is then the price will continue to RISE instead of CONSOLIDATE. Everyone and their mother is going to be telling you the price is going up and never coming back down again but let’s take it one level at a time and for now that is $86K and how long the price needs to hold onto it.

Obviously we want to pay attention to where the price closes today but it’s so much HIGHER than the Weekly close that it’s somewhat irrelevant. As I said, I wouldn’t be looking to position for a Short now - or if I was it would be a Scalp not a Swing trade. All signs point to HIGHER so I’ll repeat what I said in yesterday’s email - if you want me to start covering the Altcoins (primarily the ones attached to the CFTC Derivatives narrative) I’m going to start paying more attention to them and writing personal notes which will become another paid Newsletter within the coming weeks. You can respond to this email if that’s something you’re interested in or if you want specific Alt coverage.

The Daily Bollinger Bands as well have passed their period of COMPRESSION but just as we saw a tap of the Lower Band that resulted to the Upside - we could see a tap of the Upper Band resulting in Lower price action. I would not expect that move to happen today, it would be more likely that over the course of the week we chip back toward that $81.2K level but again I wouldn’t write that in stone. When in Price Discovery we can jump to completely new heights in the span of a 4H candle so it’s really not worth forcing a narrative that is out of alignment with what the price is very clearly showing us it wants to do - to RISE.

It’s also important to note the REACTION to $79.4K and the Middle Band of the Downtrend AVWAP actually lends more credence to price attempting to move toward the Upper Band at $94.5K. It does not have to do that immediately but in general we would expect the price to start getting pulled in that direction rather than continuing to have downside pressure. That $76K-$79K volume profile range I was originally assuming was liquidation food is actually going to be SUPPORT now so not really any reason to assume we’ll be touching the Daily SMA again until it rises HIGHER than the $80K level - at which time I would assume it stays HIGH.

As I mentioned ABOVE, all that really matters now is how the price continues to REACT to the Upper Bollinger Band on the Weekly timeframe. EVERY other instance in a Bear Market/Pre-Halving Year where the price started to break ABOVE the Upper Band - we had entered a Bull Run (not THE Bull Run). The only divergence we have from that trend is July of 2015 - where price peaked out ABOVE the Upper Band and by August 2015 had RETESTED the Lower Band. Every other instance on the chart we see STRENGTH and SUPPORT form on the Weekly SMA RETEST well in advance of needing to tag the Lower Band. Which again means we should assume the price will remain ELEVATED for now.

What this means is any Shorts you’re taking need to have very small windows that you expect to be in them - there are very few Short Swings in the near horizon that will be “obvious” and it’s more likely that we just take those opportunities to continue loading more into Spot and Long positions. I’ll break down the 2019 pullback scenario more on YouTube but again we wouldn’t actually expect that outcome until several months into next year and on the other side of structural WEAKNESS in the stock market. Meaning if that never comes - then neither does a major pullback for Bitcoin. We REACT when not IF.

I definitely wish I entered my Long position more heavily. But such is life. I’m up more than I lost on my Shorts with a position a third the size - so all I’m focused on right now is paying attention to pullbacks to add. It’s always possible we break down past the Daily SMA but the Weekly SMA is still sitting all the way down at $70.4K and we’re not going there anytime soon. It’s much more likely that the Weekly SMA continues to climb HIGHER and if I’m just taking a wild guess I would assume we don’t see a RETEST there until it RISES to a price of $76.3K or HIGHER.

We now have to behave as if the Pre-Halving Year has begun and the Bear Market Year is OVER - meaning sharp and unpredictable RISES HIGHER with slight pullbacks that don’t last for long. Really this is the easiest job of a Bitcoin investor - buy more and do nothing. Even if I’m correct about the 2019 scenario pullback - the price will literally be at $106.7K or $115.8K before that becomes something we’re concerned about. So I would not be waiting now in anticipation of $64K - I would just make sure to have some money read next year if it arrives at all.

The broader trend is BULLISH and we now have to throw out the assumption that we’ll see more Red Monthly candles the rest of the year - again unless the Stock Market collapses and then we’ll be right back to the midpoint and BELOW. Last week everyone was convinced we need to slow down AI and this week it’s going to save the economy - it does not seem like the markets are ready to pullback yet so again there’s no reason at all to fight this trend. As I said ABOVE the most important next level is $96K but I wouldn’t necessarily expect that before the end of the month. If we’re assuming the 2019 fractal is in play then the rise to $106.7K and $115.8K would likely occure between now and January. Which just happens to be when the Banks have to issue their new Stablecoins - I had previously thought they would benefit from price being LOWER then but I guess it’s actually just as beneficial for a pullback after because either way the banks benefit from people being overleveraged.

Assuming this holds true then we would need to prepare for a dramatic rise to the upside with minor pullbacks along the way - again I’ll covering that more on YouTube as we see it but for now there’s nothing to do but wait really. It’s always possible another news catalyst arrives that tanks the price but I don’t think so ahead of Midterms. Republicans/Trump will use this rise and the drop in oil prices and Treasury yields as evidence that the economy is STRONG and therefore a pullback would not be significant and rather just a normal oscillation of price between Fibonacci Pivots. I don’t really study the 50W Moving Average but I know a lot of people are convinced we’re in a Bull market just based off that metric alone. We are also about to test the Monthly SMA at $87.4K - which was not on my Bingo card for September but so be it.

According to the 2022-2023 Monthly SMA RETEST it’s POSSIBLE we could have a pullback after breaking ABOVE the SMA - however every other instance on the chart we rise above it quite violently and stay above it for a long period of time. We have no guarantee of that 2019 pullback scenario and again just need to REACT to it when necessary. All in all it’s been 10 months of DISCONNECTION from the Monthly SMA and I’ve been talking about it on YouTube for several weeks now that a RETEST was more likely than less likely. I didn’t expect to see it so soon but technically I have been talking about it as a likely scenario for Weeks. As I’ve said in a million ways this Newsletter - do not fight the trend.

While I’m writing the price has barely moved from the $86K level but I would assume we either experience a pullback this week back toward $83.6K that forms as SUPPORT or we just continue to rise toward that Monthly SMA. It’s possible we extend that RETEST into October as opposed to seeing it now but reality is the trend is BULLISH. Don’t argue with it. Don’t revenge trade. Don’t buy more BTC now than you can afford to. Just be patient and make a plan and stick to it my friends.

This is why I never sell much of my Bitcoin. I’m always free to trade on the side but the trend itself is always in favor of HIGHER forever.